00:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's Circle Back, episode number four, where we recap the last week in gambling Twitter. We've got a huge story for this week. Rob Pizzola here, jeff Feinberg, zach Phillips behind the glass and Isaac Rose Berman to my left. If you don't know this man, follow him on Twitter at roundrobin42. But we have an interview coming up with him on Circles Off. Set your notifications for this week. Thursday, 4 pm Eastern Time. Pro Tennis Better over here and we're going to break down a lot of stuff in the gambling space. But let's start with walking scams question mark.
00:53
Taylor Mathis has been covered on this program many times before. Unless you've been living under a rock, you probably know the story by now, but she got involved in a meme coin called TaylorCoin. She didn't create it, but the creators of this coin reached out to her asking if she was willing to promote it. She took two percentage of the overall coin and started blasting it out to her Twitter. Following, as we see here, that coin accumulated, wealth started to pump. People were getting in. Taylor Mathis is in on this coin. People start chasing it.
01:31
And then what happens? Well, ultimately, she says she feels overwhelmed. She sells the coin. People can see her public address. It's sold. Coin starts to plummet.
01:47
Crypto Twitter is going nuts. You pulled the rug out from under us. This is unfair. So what happens? She buys the coin back at a much lower price A no-no in the crypto community. She acts like she didn't. I bought the coin back question mark Maybe, maybe I did, we don't know but publicly we can see that the address that she had the coin with has repurchased it.
02:12
And then there's a total mutiny. That happens in this space. She protects her tweets it seems that draft kings, who was her sponsor, is no longer in her bio and has dropped her for this entire situation and she starts posting some stuff that I mean, she's not feeling great at this moment in time. And then, finally, we get to the point where she unlocks her account and she's, you know, goes from private back to public and is tweeting up a storm again with a video explanation of everything that transpired here, which is causing even more controversy in the space. Everyone has an opinion on this, literally everyone. We will give you ours, jeff. I'm throwing to you first, because you're the hot take specialist.
03:02 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
My take is pretty simple. It is pretty standard. You build a brand on the back of incels. You can't be that shocked when they turn. She thought sports sports betting twitter was a was a racket or a mean game or something. You need thick skin for none of these crypto bros. Everyone is totally anonymous. No one even uses their real name or their real picture. It is such a lower form of cesspool interactions and when they turn, this is not like sports betting Twitter turning. This is a much more vile part of the online community.
03:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's more money involved, for sure You're right. Yes, yeah, that's a big part of the online community. There's more money involved, for sure You're right. Yes.
03:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, that's a big part of it, but she built her brand on incels liking sundresses without lines, and this is where we got. You know, taylor, to the moon Houston, we have a problem.
04:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, it's a big one. What was your first reaction, isaac, we have a problem. Yeah, it's a big one. What was your first reaction?
04:06 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Isaac, yeah, I mean, it's unfortunate she only made 27k from the rug. I mean, that's the, that's the sad part where you know, that's why my, I don't think she, I don't think it was malicious. You know, I don't think she set out being like I want to screw over people, um, given I don't know how much she's making from a sponsored post, but I think she could get a lot more than the $27,000.
04:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And you know what, in fairness to her, she had a window.
04:37
She had a window to literally just throw her hands up and claim ignorance and stupidity, but instead she tried to dig deeper and then there were receipts that showed that, well, the initial intent might not have been malicious.
04:51
At some point along the way it seemed like she was in a bit over her head and you know, she took an action, unfortunately, a couple weeks ago. I don't want to say unfortunately, but when we first started this show, you know, we had spoken about her a lot and then there were some episodes where I thought, you know, maybe we were hijacking her into the show a little bit, because you know she brought traction, would have. There would almost be like an eight like at this point she was so big that she was on like a page sporadic type trajectory that there would be almost be a um, an agent or people in the background that could give her advice. Yeah, for whatever reason, her biggest flaw was, in the first 48 hours, not having a real friend to take away her phone, because it seems like someone has or she has. But she should have put that sucker down almost at the instant.
05:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I actually DM'd her privately with that advice. Whether she read it or not, I don't know. I've interacted with Taylor before a few times through Twitter DMs and then meeting her in person at Bet Bash a few times through Twitter DMs and then meeting her in person at Bet Bash. So the first thing I will say is it is kind of sad when there's like this large pile on one person and they accuse you of orchestrating this big scheme. So to me, like I'm a gambling person, I would say like the fair value on this being a scheme is like plus 5,000. To me, there's no chance she had malintent in the situation. I strongly believe that.
06:30
However, ignorance does not let you off the hook in a lot of cases. Right, this is an extreme example, but there's a manslaughter offense that exists. You hit someone with a car and kill them and it's an accident. You get charged with manslaughter. It's not first-degree murder, you didn't have the intent, but it's still viewed. As you know, there's punishment for that crime. In this scenario, it feels like she made every possible mistake along the way. I think there's a very rational explanation for that happening, but that doesn't excuse the mistakes, like if you were overwhelmed because you had. You know you're gifted. First of all, you're not gifted.
07:17
She agreed to promote this coin, documented Document. Agreed to promote this coin. She wanted 2% of the coin. Sure, it's not. You know, it was a coin made in her likeness and image that she didn't approve of. Welcome to the crypto space. I'm sorry, I don't know what else to tell you. It happens all the time, but she agreed to that. That's fine. If you want to get out of it, at that point you're in a really tough circumstance because now you have been essentially shilling the coin for a few days now and, whether you believe it or not, people are aping into it because of you being attached to it, so that initial sell catches a lot of people off guard.
07:58
I do believe maybe she was overwhelmed and didn't know enough about crypto to want to still promote this, or said to herself and again, this is speculation I got involved in something that, like, I don't want to be involved with, but there's repercussions to promoing something for a couple days, building up the price of that product and then getting out and completely tanking the price, and there are a lot of people that are upset and in my opinion, that anger is warranted. I'm not an idiot. I'm not. I'm not. I didn't go out and buy Taylor coin Like, first of all, there's a lot of idiots that went into this trying to make a quick buck and like not understanding that a lot of the liquidity in this coin is real, good luck trying to sell afterwards.
08:43
You know that's a different conversation. But all these actions across along the way, not only the selling of the coin but then the buying back at a lower price is even more damaging. And I can easily see her selling a coin. Bunch of people like what the fuck are you doing? Are you insane? Like this? And that? You but. And then her feeling bad and coming back in like that's very logical, but it's still a huge mistake to do that. And again like ignorant. Ignorance is one thing I don't think there's malintent, but you can't. You can't just plead ignorance and be like I didn't know when you're getting involved in this stuff yeah, I mean, it's the problem when you grow such a big following so quickly.
09:28 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
I mean she went from what is it like 10,000 followers to like 300,000 in like a couple weeks 200K, yeah, Right, yeah and it's pretty clear she's the one writing all of these tweets, she's the one making all of these decisions, when you know. Obviously she has some responsibility here, but clearly got over her head.
09:45 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Society is very forgiving. Okay, this happens all. I think. Maybe the Maybe. This is a bad comparison, but I'll just point. We have a Michael Vick jersey hanging in the studio here. No, there was With Tiger Woods. Look at Tiger.
09:58 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Woods. There's even a better example the Tiffany Gomes Sure Is the plane lady, yes. When example the tiffany gomes sure is the plane lady, yes, when taylor's like you know, she responded like your life's not ruined. You just gotta, you know, hang out with friends and family, take a breather, literally touch dry grass without a camera and a sundress on. Yeah, like just do it legitimately. Maybe, uh, lex luther can take you back to Aruba, like just go, just, you know I mean it. You know you hang out with your friends and your family that care the internet.
10:31
It really isn't real. I agree it isn't, but you feel it. No, you feel it, trust me. I tweet something stupid and six people tweet at me that I'm an idiot or say something stupid on one of the shows that I'm doing. You feel it, like you feel it. So I totally get that. She, she felt it. But you know, then there was just like this whole spinning dance of of excuses and backtracking and it made it so much worse. I agree, it took it to a place in my opinion. And listen, crypto bros, they can be mad at me. Like you bought into TaylorCoin, you deserve almost the same fate as dudes sending a Nigerian prince money on an e-transfer from an email. Yeah, like that's the sort of fate that I don't give a crap that you lost it. I get that. Obviously some things happened here that were hyper unethical.
11:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yes.
11:28 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But the most, in my opinion, the place where this took the darkest and the grossest turn is when, in the middle of her like singing and dancing and digging up as we would call it, she went to like an absolutely no-go territory. That is very serious and, you know, I would encourage anyone to even like donate to, to uh any like self-harm prevention hotlines, but you cannot go from like the self-harm tweets into then more backstory, into then this like like, once you tweet that you have then taken this into such a different place. That, to me, is is much different and in in some might say, a lot more egregious than like um, a crypto situation like listen, those are very dark tweets.
12:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I I'm not denying that she might have actually felt that way in the moment and I'm with you like self-harm, donate to those causes you know if you have friends that are in trouble or ever express any sort of um, you know, doubts about wanting to live on. You know that that serious stuff and I'm not suggesting that she didn't believe that in the moment. But all of these, all of these tweets and everything, all the actions they were just compounding in the situation and it seemed like every single time she tried to get out ahead of something or like or react to it, it actually just made things worse and worse and worse and just turned more and more people against her in the process, to the point where you've got like fucking Dave Portnoy now tweeting about you.
13:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
An awful announcing right Like people now writing stories about this situation that converges in some ways to some people's sports betting and crypto. So it's a yeah, a very and a pretty face, so it's a very easy story that to tell. That can land I'm not saying like viral or mainstream in our little bubble sure yeah, but that can like hit a corner of mainstream when you know a pretty face like that gets caught up in something like she got caught up in.
13:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, she puts out a video that is recapping the situation from her perspective, trying to explain. This is what happened, and I watched that five minute video and I'm like this is even worse. Worse now because, first of all, the video cuts off after like four minutes and just goes to her saying like I couldn't include the rest of of what I wanted to say.
14:10 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
I was advised by my agent, I think she says it was if her agent advised her, why didn't her agent then tell her to make a new video like why? Why would you cut off the video halfway?
14:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
there was so much going on. There are so many layers, like we're even forgetting a main layer, um, in the fact that in part of the, the skipping and dancing around, uh, and some of it listen, like the relentless need for attention seeking behavior, yeah, is dangerous. Just look at the quarterback of the new york jets. Yeah, he suffers from it. It's not just an internet thing, it's a real life thing. But you know her whole thing. You don't know what's true and what's not. And, like you said, you want nothing but the best really for anyone. And if they're the dark passenger is real. And if someone is suffering from the dark passenger, absolutely you want them to get help and use resources, both friends and family and real ones to get it. But it just comes in this malaise of like I've been hacked. Yeah, my clouds been hacked.
15:13
They have information about my family, and then you do videos and you don't address like the most serious allegations of extortion that you put forth. Yeah, none of us have put that forth. You put it forth. Yeah, so it is impossible, listen, and she probably got lost in her own mistellings. Yeah, because it's hard to keep up with the web once the web gets going.
15:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Tweets deleted along the way, like all these things make you question things even more, like where the hell did this come from, extortion? And when you put that out there, what's the natural reaction for someone who's been blaming you for the whole situation? They want proof, people want proof. You can't just put that out there.
15:58 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, if someone got your personal information and hacked you and has private stuff of both you or your family, then it's like whoa, you know and was threatening you to sell. Then it's like, okay, the hounds are off. Just give us a shred of something here to corroborate something like that. It's all just. It was very heavy and light simultaneously and then at some moments it got like really heavy, but at the same time, I would think that the 99.9% of the people who are messaging her were just like the sports gambling Twitter folk who were enjoying the show they weren't affected in any way.
16:41
They weren't the people who probably even got the the losing end of crypto.
16:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know that. I agree a hundred percent. So I I'm definitely in the minority here, but I actually felt really bad for her in the early going because so many people just piled on and I don't, I don't like victim shaming. This is not what it's supposed to be. But I I agree with jeff, like when you, when you portray your brand in one way and you lean into walking bets and like you really lean into it, you start responding to people who are tweeting about and not only that when you say you want to be taken seriously, I'm more than my walking bets.
17:22 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And then your follow-up tweets are like hey, sports illustrated. How about me in the bikini? And that's cool, like you play. Yeah, you play to what you got. Agree you get?
17:33 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
god gave you something you work it, but those previous decisions have made this situation so much worse. Well, it's harder to feel sympathy exactly, of of it, exactly. People do not feel sympathetic.
17:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Which no one has the right to like be harassed. I get like Twitter is a community. I just mean, like she went you know she had the DraftKings partnership. She's on the freaking turf at MetLife watching Monday Night Football, right, and we mentioned that. Like she is getting harassed. There are like people who are just jealous of her having this access. Now, no one has the right to harass you for those sorts of things, but it just I don't know, I don't want to say something that's going to like make it seem like I'm condoning the harassment.
18:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You understand why it's happening.
18:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
She's flipped so many coins and they've all gone against her. It seems like here when, a week ago, she had the world in her hands. Yeah, she had the world in her hands.
18:39 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
In a year from now, she'll have it in her hands again, maybe she will.
18:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But at the same time time, rob, let's not die. Like you know somebody who like works, uh, who has to book hostesses at a nice restaurant in town. Yeah, they tell you, like they got they go to work and pull out 15 taylor mathis's and tell them to put on a dress and walk and give pics. There's no intellectual property with with a walking in a pretty dress and there's no shortage of people who can do what she can do. So she's you know there's an expendability to her. Like there's a next man up. There's girls who have seen probably what's happened in the last two months and have gone sundress shopping and asked their boyfriend to teach them what minus 130 means. And that'd be a step up because they're given lines.
19:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
The interesting thing to me is just how quickly, in my opinion, she went from this positive sentiment To everyone rooting for failure. That's life, that's how it works. I don't disagree, but the amount of victory lapping that was happening around this entire Like? I'm a sports bettor by trade. I make my money betting on sports and I am conditioned to think probabilistically about everything. And I just take a step back and I'm viewing the whole situation and I'm just thinking about it probabilistically. It seems very clear to me that she got into something that she was originally excited about. Eventually, that excitement wavered, for whatever reason.
20:20
I think the most, again probabilistically, the most likely scenario if you've ever been on crypto Twitter which I was, I was day trading for a couple of years and I was heavily involved in crypto Twitter it is, like you said, Jeff, the biggest fucking cesspool on the planet. I'm sure people are up in her DMs messaging her on Telegram. Why have you not promoted the coin today? These people are obsessed with making money. The irony in all of this is that the people who bought Taylor coin were, were good, wanted to stick the fucking bag to someone else. They, they, they wanted to make their money off someone else and they never had the opportunity to do so. That's why they're upset. That's the reality of the situation. But probabilistically, I think all of these things that happened happened without intent to screw people over. But it's like the perfect storm of just setting yourself up with every additional action where it makes people turn on you even more.
21:19 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think how you feel was pretty much the sentiment to 99% of the people who sort of caught this story from Go Right In that. Oh shit, like any group chat are you talking with any friend about it? Your first instinct, as she pockets 27K, when we have some concept of what her Twitter was worth a week ago, what a single tweet from her is worth a week ago, we're like, well, she clearly like had no. You know, she thought she was smarter than she was and she got caught up in something. And then, like our all first reaction was, I feel, a little bad, like she got caught up in something she doesn't really know, but our turn of opinion or sympathy was all from all the follow-up actions. If that phone gets put away, in the first like hour of this incident, she is putting on a sundress and recording a Monday Night Football video for everyone to see for her upset audience. Like that's all that's happening.
22:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I said listen, I barely said tweet. Most of my Twitter notifications are for sports purposes injury, you know, beat reporters, stuff like that. I sent tweet notifications for Taylor before she went private and as she was tweeting through this, I'm just thinking in my head I'm like how did you press send on, Like, how did I mean she has? Mean she has an agent, presumably she has a lawyer, like how, I don't know how it got to this point, yeah, where?
22:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't. She's gone big so she clearly doesn't live at home. She's moved away from home. But my first instinct was like this is just a girl in her. I don't know where she, I'm just saying in her, like new york apartment, no, I, I think.
23:05
Midwest I know she's from Iowa, but I'm just saying she needs her, like, she just needs her real life friends right now. To step in, rob, if I have gotten into, luckily, before this show existed, I didn't do anything like this. I didn't run any grifts, but I got. I did some dumb things on Twitter. I didn't run any grifts, but I got. I did some dumb things on Twitter, not like you can cancel me for, but just some fights or battles that I regret. And in those moments I have real life friends, even probably you.
23:36
I know my boy, pat Mayo, who's like, really good at the internet, was like now's the time to chill, buddy, it's over. Like, drop it and you take some advice. So it's hard. She might have, yeah, like, drop it and you, you take some advice. So it's hard. You, she might have tried to drop it and that phone just sits there and you can't, yeah, put it away. But I know she just made it so much worse time and time again. Now we're here and it's low-hanging fruit. It's low-hanging fruit because it's um, no offense like to know all of us. It's just like, oh, this is the internet, this is my entertainment, this is my sitcom, you know, like I said, like people like conditions are getting entertained.
24:17
This is now how people are reacting the tweets. There was some hilarious I'm gonna call you know like the bird magic or that might have been something else, but nonetheless, this is just like a level of entertainment. There are dudes at their cubicles Like this is just their morning reads.
24:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, the Larry Bird versus you know Magic, Was it Bird versus Jordan, Bird versus Magic, bird versus Magic.
24:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It was Bird Magic First magic.
24:42 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
First bird magic. Lucy Burge was the original quote-unquote inventor of the walking bets. She was the first person to do it, where she walked out and gave picks. Taylor then took that, ran with it and they had a beef walked with it. I should say Sorry.
25:06 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think we're giving Lucy like a lot of credit. Well, she did at first, she trademarked it, I think. But I'm just saying like the concept of just being outdoors walking giving pics.
25:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, yeah, yeah, I mean listen, yes, she invented putting toppings on a pizza. Congratulations, lucy. Listen, I understand Lucy's perspective when you feel like you like. Here's an example. We do circle back right now. Right, let's say, another media outlet came out and started doing this exact same show. Yeah, they're within the right to do so.
25:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I would be bitter, I'd be like what the fuck is that? We're doing that? But like we don't own, we don't have the proprietary rights to talking about other people's tweets.
25:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
There's no, there's nothing that right. It's just a yes, a concept, so sure. But she went after taylor because she says I mean, I've been here the whole time and also tried to warn all of you. Um, someone said you warned us that she was a crypto scammer. She said, yeah, that she'll rob you pretty, yeah, I did pretty much.
26:05 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
I mean that she didn't rob me, like she didn't rob you. Who who bought? Who bought taylor coin? Like I actually have yet to meet someone who's? Bought taylor coin I've I've met a lot of people who are very upset about it, but I have not met a single person who actually bought taylor coin and if anybody bought it without the express like purpose of selling it to someone else for more money was there, like you know, you get it. You get to meet Taylor. Like what's the benefit?
26:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I assume there's two levels of people who bought crypto coin the straight crypto boys who got wind of it and that this could catch a little steam and I can pump and dump on someone else. Yeah. And dudes who are into pig play and just to quickly summarize, those are dudes who pay girls on the internet a lot of money to, like, humiliate them. Yeah, right, so those are the two types Like I'm going to now pay like not actually the right people?
26:58 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
And so you're saying those are people that are allowed to be robbed, right?
27:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Well, no, yeah, because they accepted that, like I am just paying into her happiness to humiliate me.
27:10 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But there's always. So first of all, I thought this was like a huge low blow. This is like a classic the ref gets hit and he's in the corner trying to regroup your brass knuckles or something.
27:21
Yeah, the low blow and, you know, down on the knees Like that. This I understand. By the way, way like I, I'm not immune to disliking people in the sports betting industry. I think people very clearly know where my rivalries are, but this was like someone is already at their like lowest point and just jumping in. That's what bothered me about the whole situation. I I get a little bit more emotional about this. I don't know. Maybe, like you know people. If I say this, people are like oh yeah, you're like, you're trying to like. You know she's not going to blow you. So all those comments and stuff like that, I'm like just be like a human for a second. You have someone at their lowest point to just pile on and be like. I warned you.
28:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I will defend Lucy here in that, because she did feel like her bit was stolen. According to official internet rules she has, like engagements of war, international internet law. Lucy has a free shot. Yeah Right, like they had a battle before, it got pretty public. It got a lot of hype. It also ended up on Portnoy's desk. Yeah, they both got dragged for it. So under international internet law, lucy is actually allowed to take that shot.
28:43
But to follow up on one thing you said, I agree Someone's at their lowest moment. If you're a friend of it, like I don't, you've got a lot of friends who've done some dumb things like at a low moment. Like you're my friend, I will support you. There was a subset of tweets, though, from a genre of people that got me good this weekend. Rob, it was the you took a picture with me at Bet Bash and now I'm here to simp for you in your low moment. Hopefully I see you at Bet Bash again and you'll remember that I was nice to you on Twitter, like it was essentially thanks for being the first pretty girl I've taken a picture with forever. So I will not say anything. You know you get a free pass from me.
29:31 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, listen, I'll be just completely honest with you. Taylor's looks like they don't make a difference for me in this. I would have done this for anyone, like if I truly believed that somebody was just ignorant. I'm not going to pile on on them. It doesn't matter what they look like male, female doesn't matter to me.
29:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Again, I want to say very clearly ignorance does not excuse, you know but if it was like let's just randomly say do you think the internet the internet? If, like knish did this yeah, I'm just trying to the guy with a in our circle with a profile like you think a guy would have been like taken down harder I believe to be perfectly honest, I think 27k is a lot more for condition than it is for taylor mathis.
30:21 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know, I don't know, I can't tell you I I wouldn't be, it would. It would probably be, like I think, a guy.
30:27 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm not going to like you for that. I think a guy would have been railroaded even harder than she's gotten railroaded.
30:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't know.
30:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think this was the person that was For the innocent mistake Before, like the eight backpedals and pretzel, and my cloud's been stolen and that's a really good question.
30:47 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm interested in that in the comments below, what you think. If kanish did this, he also would have taken the complete wrong route and tweeted his way out of it and made it a million times worse. I can tell you that that would have happened. There's no way he would have put the keyboard down and moved away. But uh, I also we're gonna move on. We're going to talk some actual sports betting tweets in a second.
31:08
But I also just want to say when you invest in something, it's no different than when you're placing your bet. When you go and click submit at your sports book and you place that bet, I don't care if you bought it from a tout, if you got it from Twitter, if you bought it from a tout, if you got it from Twitter, if you handicapped it yourself, the onus is on you. You are now responsible. It's your bankroll that you're dealing with. The same applies with investments.
31:36
I completely understand why someone might feel infuriated that they thought that they were going to have Taylor supporting this coin and they were going to make a bunch of money. But you have to weigh risk and reward with every investment and like there's nothing to stand on. Really, in my opinion, there's not. People will vehemently disagree with it, and that's fine, you're entitled to your opinion. But the rug getting pulled out by Taylor selling her, if it was that fragile in the first place, you have to know that going in Really and that to me is like the dumbest part of this entire thing she had an out.
32:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, she had an out. Just would have taken like an hour of like chill and thought and she had an out. It was almost like it was impulsive, yeah.
32:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want anything to do with this anymore. I'm an out.
32:25 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It was almost like it was impulsive, yeah, and like the buyback and all of it.
32:27 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I don't want anything to do with this anymore. I'm selling it. It's not understanding the repercussion.
32:30 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's like charity, selling, buying back. It was just like a spiral that got so much worse.
32:36 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Do you think she knew that people could see on her? No, I don't think so.
32:44 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
That's actually a could see. I mean, people could have been smart enough to connect the dots on how that could have happened, but I don't think she knew that they could see that she pulled it.
32:53 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's the one thing I will say. Like probabilistically, I think it's more likely that she sold that thinking that she was not going to be found out for that.
33:05 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Do you think she would ever advertise that she sold it? She said because she tweeted she was like, oh, I'm done with it, but do you think she would have?
33:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
said yeah, like if she wants to pull a straight heel, turn here like straight heel turn. I don't know what that implies.
33:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
She pulled a heel turn already, I'll tell you that Okay, fair, yeah, this would be her ultimate heel turn.
33:22 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
She actually did some things that I would say are the peak, the most peak levels of heel turn, and it wasn't grifting the crypto.
33:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It was after. Yeah, I just think every action along the way somehow made it worse. And you're right, sometimes you just got to walk away, turn the mobile device off, step away.
33:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Uninstall Twitter for a week. We all have friends who are like not part of this, yeah At all. Yeah, like real world, who we have known. They would be so happy to hear from you.
34:01 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, they would. But there's certain things that are like an admission of defeat Making your account private. Admission of defeat, right. As soon as people now see that that account is private, that's like an admission of guilt in a way. I've done something. I need to go hide behind a. It's these little things that I do believe she was, she thought she was protecting herself and and, by the way, another thing I'll say the extortion stuff. We you know we talked about this briefly the stuff that goes behind the scene, on behind the scenes in crypto Twitter is insane. Okay, I got messaged a picture of a knife before, purely because I tweeted something about Bitcoin and it had it went down like 10% the next day and some guy tweeted a picture. I reported blocked and whatever. I moved on. But there's, there's literally insane people out there and I would not put it past someone to have given her like a really bad.
35:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
On a good day yes, on a good day without a crypto scandal. Yeah, listen, on a good day, on a good day without a crypto scandal. Me and you have worked in sports media for a long time. We have seen what some of these the women in the workplace in sports media, like DMs look like, who aren't involved in anything or don't put on sundresses or don't sell their brand to that. It is horrifying, and no one you know your mom, your sister, your cousin should like have to experience that level of online harassment. So before this, I have great sympathy for the types of disgusting, vile things that would show up in all of her comments. You know I might have my Dude, it was Right. So now and then you add in to like the crypto boys. So there is.
35:55 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, yeah, well, we're going to segue. I'll tell you who's not going to run off with your money, jeff. That's Pinnacle Sportsbook. They've been in business for the past 25 years for a reason Very well trusted in the space, fair betting limits for everyone. Find out what pros have known for the past 25 years. Pinnacle is where the best bettors play. You can sign up by going over to Pinnaclecom. Slash Hammer. You must be 19 plus not available in the US and, as always, please play responsibly.
36:26
Scammers Paradise, aka Dub Club. I don't know much about Dub Club here, but it's picking up a lot of steam. Prop Dude, the creators of Dub Club Win should be arrested. Joey Isaacs, who was previously on circles off why? It's a great app, great for platforming scam artists. Checkmark. So is Twitter, instagram, fairpoint the list is endless. Move on Jeff Benson from Circa Sportsbook. Play on Jeff Rosa joining Dub Club as well. Jeff Rosa, college basketball handicapper, young kid Benson huge announcement Please join my Dub Club for $30 a month for my Survivor Picks for the rest of the season. That was after he won one Survivor Pick. Prices are low and affordable. Going to be putting a lot into this. I like Jeff a lot. I think he has some very, very clever tweets. What do you know?
37:17 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
about Dub Club. I know that anybody can basically sign up. You can market yourself. I actually haven't used it so I don't know. Obviously, with Betstamp you can't delete your plays. With Picket you can kind of hide it. I don't know on Dub Club whether you can do that, but my understanding is there's some level of you can kind of tailor what exactly, people see.
37:40 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't have a clue. I know that I've ignored at least like two to three DMs from Dub Club but after reading one sentence like listen, everyone's got a price. I'm sure there's a price. Taylor had a price that I would annoyingly spam my feed with.
38:05 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Dub Club ain't offering that price your, your club, followed us on circles off twitter, though the guy who started it, I think, messaged us. He followed us the other day onto just on twitter, so just give us a follow yeah, I mean they're going after sophisticated squares like jeff exactly.
38:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Get on the platform. Uh, I've gotten numerate. Like I've never actually looked into dub club um, I should probably. I've gotten numerous messages from them in order to join. Uh, felt very much like some sort of scheme that was going on when they joined. But to be fair, to be fair, prop dude is on the side of angry, sharp Twitter guy that hates the world and hates everything to do with it.
38:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, but he's more of the dub clubs and anything like dub club. There's a lot worse than dub club.
39:01 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Prop dude, that's who he goes after I'm not defending dub club at all, but I'll say there are some people who are totally anti-all-top. Like anybody who sells picks necessarily they're a scammer. I don't think that's the case. I mean, I think, particularly with how the landscape is with limiting, there is a legitimate business reason for some people who are winning bettors to give out picks. Do I think the vast majority of people on people who are winning bettors to give out picks? Do I think the vast majority of people on dub club are winning bettors? No, yeah, but just to say that anybody who's selling picks is necessarily a scammer. I disagree with that but dub club is.
39:35 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, I assume their thing is like a community. At least that's community. Yeah, that's the thing.
39:42 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Right, like people who are on dub club, you know ostensibly are there for the picks, but you just want a bunch of people who you're riding with, who your bet loses, you text in the Discord oh, what a bad beat. You know that's what people want.
39:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
And I don't think that is horrible. It's actually a good business plan.
39:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It depends on a lot of these. Depends on what your ethics or morals are. On what your ethics or morals are. If I was starting a business in the bet tracking space purely to make money, our business model wouldn't be like BetStamps. We wouldn't be going after the sharper audience. It would be more of the recreationals. Build a community stuff like that.
40:23
I do think even BetStamp has to own a little bit of the legitimizing of bettors that aren't very good and I think that's happening a lot now in the space, like that guy. Jeff Rosa is an example. Right, I came across that guy like I don't know, one or two months in the college basketball season, had a very good college basketball year, betting for one season. I follow that guy's tweets pretty regularly and I would say I'm not booking bets, but I would say that if I was a licensed bookmaker I would very happily take that guy's bets. But most people pick up on these one-year streaks and once that happens You're set. It's like the guys who win like Circa Millions or Westgate Super Contest and they have a fluke year.
41:12 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Oh yeah, who are you talking about there?
41:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
They're selling picks for life. I'm not talking Fezzik, that's not where I was going, I was actually not going there. There's like the mad Russian guy or whatever that I've seen before, and they're selling picks for life, and that's happening in this space, one fifth place in the super contest.
41:36 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean you turn into a side hustle and could end up thinking this is your real job. And then could end up to you sending weekly paragraph tweets saying like man, shit's hard.
41:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I should know who you're referring to, but it's not coming to me. Do you care to say no? Okay, that sounds so familiar.
41:56 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Now I feel bad because now I feel like I need a.
41:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Now you're calling someone out. No, but I get it. I get it. That's the space now, and Dub Club is just going to be like another platform for, like Prop Dude says, great platform for scam artists. The problem is, most of these people don't even really know that they're scammers. For one, they actually think that they're going to win in the long. They have a great season. They think they figured it out like someone you know, someone has an amazing nfl year. It's like well, you know what you could actually? Just if you were really good, you could bet nfl and you would make a lot more money than touting the picks. That's's the reality of that market. But there's so many apps that are like this now and it's not a surprise. There's a desire for community in the space and the vast majority of people can't tell the difference between a winning better and a losing better.
42:43 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
But I think also the problem here comes in that the platform and what Isaac said I agree with and I think there's no issue with that. But like I mean, let's call it what it is Like Jeff Rose is losing better. He's not going to win. Why is he?
42:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
charging. Probabilistically, he most likely is. I can never say with certainty, but yes.
43:03 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Yeah, okay, that's fair. But as for like, yeah, the guy, he's charging $30 for these leans, Like not even plays, leans Like he's going to be a losing bettor and he's charging for leans. That's where it's like. That's the scam, like that's what I agree with. I think the community is fine, but that's where it gets ridiculous the marketing and advertising right if you're marketing yourself.
43:33 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
You're saying I'm a winning better if you tell my picks you're going to win, when in reality you're a long-term loser. That's pretty unethical oh, 100, but we can understand why it happens, of course, and definitely and and what do you set the line on number of dub club subscribers that je Rosa has?
43:49 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Well, I wouldn't even be able to tell you, I wouldn't be comfortable saying that, but he's got like 20K followers on Twitter, something like that.
43:57 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
What's the conversion rate of Twitter followers to Dub Club subscribers? Maybe I should get in on this, he seems to have a very engaged following.
44:08 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It is a platform that's going to make money for one, because there's an inherent appetite for this in this space. It's definitely going to elevate people who don't win and make it look like these people win. That's the betting space at its core right now. Where there's money, people are taking advantage. That's it Period and that's going to happen in any space. It just happens to be the betting space right now. But if there's a gap in market where you can make money, throw the fucking ethics and morals out the window. People don't give a shit. They don't give a shit that they're bringing on a bunch of scammers onto the platform. As long as they're making money, that's it. That's space. I mean, that's a lot of how the world works and I think maybe sometimes I'm in the minority there and that's it really. That's it Always betting podcast Our friends Pisky and Godfather.
44:59
I was out actually at a Leaf game with them a few weeks ago. By the way, two Montreal Canadiens fans in a box at a Leaf game cheering against the Leafs. I wanted to push these guys over the balcony. I didn't. I don't really want to harm them for real, but anyways, poor Jamie is what they tweet and they post a chat. This is the second week in a row where we've had an interaction with customer service at a sportsbook. Zach, what sportsbook was this? I think it was Fitzdares. Okay, they deposit $2,500 into a sportsbook and make one bet limited to $10. After that, one bet. Asking about what their max bets are on sides, sportsbook won't answer. Limits are not that simple. They vary for each individual bet.
45:44 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Important information here. What was the first bet? Because I'm not defending sports books that limit you know it's a reality of the business. They're for-profit companies. If you're a winning better, they usually don't want your action. But if you are a winning better and you're going into a sports book and you're firing some mispriced prop for the max on the first bet, what do you want?
46:09
What are you asking for? I mean they limited to $10 on a prop on the first bet. What do you want? What are you asking for? I mean they limited to $10 on a prop on the first bet. What? Could that prop have been.
46:15 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I mean, is it? What is it like? Belarusian table tennis overs Like what are we betting here?
46:19 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Like, what are you doing? It's called I mean, look, I'm not going to talk too much, but priming an account. You go in, you bet, you know the Yankees, you bet the home team, you bet the Leafs, whatever it is. You don't go in and fire some ridiculously sharp stuff, some props, some stuff that's going to steam like crazy. I mean I really don't have too much sympathy for this.
46:39 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You take the account out for dinner. A couple drinks first.
46:44 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
Yeah, exactly, you loosen the account up a little before you try to get them in.
46:51 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Who knows what this is. This could be the most off-the-beaten-path like D-rate sporting event, where their limit on that is already hyper-recreational.
47:05 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Also, how much action is Fitz Derris getting on a date? I?
47:08 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
don't even know what that is. The props must stand out like this.
47:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I mean, I like Pisky. Pisky is a great dude. He rubs people the wrong way, including Knish, because he's sometimes too positive about the sports betting space. He's a great guy, godfather. I think the first interaction we ever had we were met head-to-head because of the episode he did of Circles Off, where Kanish said he doesn't like Pisky because he's too positive. Godfather took that personally. All that is repaired. But sports betting as arrogant as this sounds, it is not hard to win betting on sports. I realize this sounds arrogant because, like, 98% of people lose. They lose because they don't know how to win and there's not enough out there. But once you figure out how to win, you're set for life. If you wanna do top-down betting and you trust the market as your source of truth, you'll never lose. But there's an art to being able to scale and to be being able to keep accounts. And this I don't know if I don't know if Jamie is, uh, an alias for pisky or not, or if this is someone who sent a screenshot. I don't know, jamie.
48:20 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Jamie customer service. Oh, there you go yeah oh
48:24 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
right, right, right, right yeah so we didn't get the name of yeah, no, because, yeah, it might have been pisky's account, whatever, but there's a recklessness in going in and just thinking you're gonna win unlimited money on good bets and it's sad. But this was my argument with spanky captain jack about like the american betters voice that they were launching on behalf of betters. We need fair limits for all. It's like yeah, listen, in a perfect world, sure there would be limits. I don't want product offerings to go away. I don't want to be limited to only betting 100 bucks on an SGP, because now everyone has to be able to bet that amount.
49:04
I want the art of the game. It sucks to get limited, but there's things you can do to work around that and in some cases you can actually even bet more because you might be profiled as like a really bad better. I hate Hitman does this all the time too. Hitman's such a good friend of mine. The guys that complain about limiting they drive me crazy. At this point you have to know it's part of the game. I can understand why you would be upset, but like the screenshots of oh, I'm limited to this, I'm limited to that. It's like okay.
49:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, You've got like 75 runners running around. This is the thing right.
49:42 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
If you're a normal person who's betting, maybe you're like rec plus, right, you're like trying to win, you know you're like rec plus right, you're like trying to win, you know you're. But maybe you're not super sharp. You're doing this on the side. You're using draft kings for fun and you get limited to a couple dollars. I get that that sucks. But a lot of the people who complain about limiting they're the people with the most accounts. Yeah, right, you can't complain about limiting if you got, you know, 20 beards and 50 people at kiosks and unlimited accounts right, that that's a big one for sure.
50:06 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But also, on top of it, people have an inability to think from another perspective. The sportsbook's job is to get rid of the winners. They don't want you betting, with the exception of Pinnacle, and I honestly say that because Pinnacle take the same limits for everyone. There's not many books like Pinnacle out there, but the recreational sportsbook's job is to get rid of the winners. We interviewed Ship, the Justice Shipper on this channel. He was working for PointsBet. At one point he was fucking laughing it up at how good he was at limiting people. I wanted to reach through the fucking screen and punch him in the face. Shipper probably loves this. And how much pride, yeah, but that's the role of the sports book.
50:47 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They cost themselves as much money as they think they're saving themselves when they're wrong, because they have no idea they are they like limit squares.
51:02 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
There's no way I disagree with that. I think that's wrong. I'm limited, I don't care, but the number of people who are limited, it's true, most of them are.
51:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They don't have a clue.
51:10 - Zack Phillips (Announcement)
A lot of them.
51:11 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They don't have a clue. You're not going to lose that much though. But they think a guy. They think like oh, just because you're how do I put this? Like just because I have, if you're just an aware consumer, you're limited. You don't have to be as sharp to be limited. I think that varies by book. You're limited. You don't have to be as sharp to be limited.
51:28 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
I'm an aware. I think that varies by book.
51:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, but I'm an aware consumer in that, like A, I follow the league. I have a lot of friends who are pro-betters. I'm in some of their group chats, so it's like when they say, oh, this is the game to get on, it is steaming and I go because I have lots of sportsbooks. I find the who's still leaving that number and then all of a sudden, but that's You're exhibiting. Okay, listen, I'm burning like a good book by not betting professional stakes you yourself say you're a sophisticated square.
51:56 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, they don't want a sophisticated square, they want a square. You are exhibiting a behavior by even line shopping.
52:04 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Jags had it on those points Moved with me.
52:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You are smart enough to go find a good line.
52:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
The Browns had it. But guess what else I'm doing? Jets Chargers, moneyline Carly, sure, right To like offset, and I know when I'm like this is just such a square, but I need it and I want just something for the afternoon.
52:22 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
It's like I don't whatever, I think if you bet the Jets, your account should automatically be unlimited. Exactly so there. Unlimit any account that bets the Jets there is definitely some bad limiting that happens. For sure.
52:35 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I started a fresh account recently that I've been priming and I've been playing six-game round-robin parlays on NFL right at post for the 1 o'clock slate. Not this past week. The week prior I went six for six on those, won money and I was cooked. The account was cooked. No CLV, not even great play Like this is NFL at post. You think round robins are sharp-coded, though Possibly I've done some stuff on that. It's gearing more sharp now than it is square. Back in the day it was all square, but regardless, it's just a way for me to get a bunch of action and you just got to live with it. Like, at the end of the day I'm like this sucks, but it's the game. Like, even though I was trying to fool them and I think they shouldn't have, they ended up limiting the winning better. Job well done. I credit them for doing that.
53:27 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
That's the game, and the amount that you would lose as, like, a sharper recreational customer is way less than the amount that, if they let Rob on, he's going to win Right.
53:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
So I think you'd rather you'd rather, you know, sweep with a right now there's, you're right, but right now the brush is too broad.
53:45
Yeah, and they are, but being able to thin down that brush is very, very hard and they would rather scoop up a few extra, I agree. But I'm saying right now, some of the people you hear, like a lot of people who are getting limited, who have no business being limited, yeah, that's fair Period and I will embarrassingly put myself into that. Like, who gives a shit Bet? Some outright golfers. They go off at 12 points lower. An outright golf bet's the dumbest bet you can make.
54:13 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It doesn't even overcome the hold it doesn't even overcome the hold.
54:16 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's like buying a new car. The second I make that bet I drive it off the lot. It is worth so much less than it was two minutes ago. So much less Like nothing. It's worth nothing the moment I make it.
54:30 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, listen. For me, though, the point is, at the end of the day, you have to understand the sportsbook is a business and they don't want winning bettors, and I think part of the art of betting and what separates people who can scale from those who can't like the Sharks from like that next level of players, is being able to overcome that.
54:50 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
I actually enjoy that part of it and I think also a lot of people don't realize how much the game has changed. So you hear people like Spanky talk about oh why are they limiting people when you could just take the action and move the line? And it's like Piscis betting, you know whatever European soccer over gold.
55:10
The sportsbook's not getting any information that they can then use that's actually profitable for them. I agree that they probably should be the different limits for props and like major markets, right. So you should be able to go on DraftKings and FanDuel the day of on NFL and pretty much bet at least a good clip, right.
55:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But when it comes to stuff like props and random derivatives, it's like well, they're not really the books aren't getting value by you slamming their off-market stuff and those are almost just recreational services from the books. It's like they're here. We know people like to bet them, but we're not letting you take us to the cleaners on this shit. And if that's not good enough for you, try to find like you said. Play the game and you try to find somewhere else.
55:51 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Yeah, I mean for me I don't get upset if I get limited, if I'm betting props. But I agree, If I'm betting major market stuff and I get limited, then I get upset.
56:00 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, listen, I'm never going to lie to people and say I'm always fine with being limited.
56:06
It sucks when you go place that bet and you realize, because most of the time you don't even get an email to tell you you've been limited. You just find out through thinking, you know I'm good here, type in your amount and it's like, well, no, you're actually going to limit it $7.31. You know it is disappointing, but it's, you know, got to get better. Got to get better at the game Thursday night. Football last week was Vikings and Rams and ended on a face mask that was not called. Kelly Boswell tweeted about it. The follow-up from Parker Barron was let's not forget that the Rams activated Puka Nakua at the last possible moment. Yet the Vikings line was minus two and a half in the days leading up and made no change at kickoff. They knew On everything. They knew on everything. They knew puka would play.
56:53 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
They wanted all the money on the bike. Okay. So my question here who is they right? Who is? If you've ever met.
57:01
They he's referring to vegas, vegas, vegas, yeah, vegas so here's the thing if you've ever met anybody who works at a sports book, most of them they're allowed to bet out, or a lot of them they're allowed to bet out. For a lot of the time they're allowed to bet out. So if they someone at a sportsbook knew that Pucco would play I don't know anything about NFL, I don't even know but if they had information on which side was good, they would then go bet it at someplace else and the market would then move. I mean, talk about this all the time, right, better shift the market.
57:29 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Vegas sets the line initially Vegas.
57:32 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Books set the line initially and then better sharpen it up. If Vegas always knew the openers would be accurate. But they're not.
57:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's the close because betters have sharpened it. It's a fundamental lack of understanding in how betting markets work. This is the biggest knowledge gap between a recreational better and a sharp better, which is how the market works. People don't understand this. I knew Puka was going to probably play on Wednesday. It was Thursday night football game. It wasn't public. Someone messaged me Puka is very likely playing tomorrow night.
58:04
We took some early positions, not only on this, on props, on SGPs. We bet it as if it was info. All that that line is saying is that bettors, the best bettors, have access to good info, especially college football. College Info is paramount. They go and bet into a book like a pinnacle, like a circa, and these books start to be like well fuck, our sharp bettors are betting the rams. Are the counts that win a lot are betting on the rams and they hold the line at two and a half because their, their best bettors, are betting that, whereas everyone else is betting elsewhere and they don't care about that action. They're like why are they going to care about the random person who showed up and bet a hundred bucks on the Vikings? The best bettors are betting the Rams. That's why the line is there. It's because of bettors. Bettors have access to information. It's nothing about Vegas knowing, it's just fundamentally how the betting market works.
59:03 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Also the 80%. That can't be right. I don't know. I don't even know where that number came from, but 80% of the money is on one side. No, it's not.
59:09 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I would also say a lot of like that reply from Parker. You know, they know that is just. You know, when we were younger that person would do like the local team radio call-in show to like complain and say something stupid Yep, that isn't really a thing to do that much anymore. I'm sure it is Some places, some markets. That person just takes their stupid comment to Twitter.
59:38 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
And we have to see it and we see it, and especially me. I get triggered by that stuff. I don't know why. I don't know why that tweet in particular is the type of tweet that just bothers me so much and I can't explain it. That tweet in particular is the type of tweet that just bothers me so much and I can't explain it, but it does. I think it's because it's just getting perpetuated even more and more. Every mistake in a game, every referee mistake, is Vegas new.
01:00:03 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
You want the Parkers and stuff to go away. You better explain to all of us with that replay assist how it works, when it works and who it works for, because I get they're trying to do the right thing. Yeah, more calls right and possible is always better. Yeah, but the gray area in the deployment, like it only adds gasoline. That's true to bros being like what the hell.
01:00:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's a problem the nfl's got to figure out because they're in bed with sports books and they're officiating often leads to some very questionable and even they fix things and it's just like no, that coach, if he wants it fixed, he's got to waste a challenge to fix, or he's got to.
01:00:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He's got to weigh the risk of wasting that challenge if he wants your bad mistake fixed, because I had to do that an hour ago.
01:00:52 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Yeah, I just Again. I think it comes down to the average rec or casual. Better looking to blame anyone but themselves for a loss. Yeah, of course I watched a defensive back on the Chicago Bears taunt the fucking crowd in Washington before tipping a Hail Mary up into the air. I'm not calling for some sort of fix.
01:01:17 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
That was an all-timer.
01:01:18 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
It's just take it and move on.
01:01:20 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
That's sports betting, but it's also in the instance of that Vikings-Rams game in particular. That's a frustrating way to lose a bet. That's a frustrating way to watch a game ending without a bet, like if you've just put three hours into your night and you see it end like that. Yeah, but the way that people were framing that that, like, the Vikings were going to drive the other 80 yards- in the game it was like a 2% probability.
01:01:46
The conversion was also like absurd. I know, obviously like a two percent probability version was also like absurd. I know obviously there was the chance for that, yes, but people saying like that they were to that, yeah, they thought it was gonna happen. Yeah, that was like given with the penalty down 28, 20.
01:01:58 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
We got no timeouts, gotta go the entire length of the field. Um, yeah, I I think I think the estimates I had were around two percent that that would have happened. Uh, so one in, it's just that they didn't get the chance.
01:02:12 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
They didn't get the chance. But even if you didn't bet the game and you watched the game you wanted to watch. That, of course, neutral would have wanted to watch that.
01:02:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
A neutral would have wanted to watch that, just like neutrals want to hear what GRP has to say. Grp says my formula only picks are done for the year. I've realized I need a combination of formula and feel and if I don't bet at least 1k on the game, who cares? Uh, he shows his sheet from the year where he's gone 10 and 11 with a big x through the entire thing and he's moved on. Um, grp fascinates me. I can't get, I can't get away from him. Like, even when I don't follow him, like I don't. Now his tweets find a way to get into every aspect of my life, either through the For you tab on Twitter, through Telegram group chats on WhatsApp. This guy is everywhere.
01:03:05 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He will outpace Taylor.
01:03:07 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Right now they're tied at four episodes Jeff, i're tied no, not even close At four episodes, jeff, I'm sorry, no.
01:03:12 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Not even close.
01:03:12 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
This is your worst take of all time.
01:03:14 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
No, hear me out. We're on episode four.
01:03:16 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Yep, they've both come up in more than one episode On the show On the show Okay, different.
01:03:23 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, sorry, I believe if George will probably leave the league.
01:03:28 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
If Taylor takes your advice, she's going to log on.
01:03:32 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Especially if she goes on a hiatus. I would also bet money. There's no chance. He's done. There is no chance.
01:03:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
No, no, this is just his formula, only picks, by the way. What is that formula?
01:03:45 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Why is formula capitalized? Okay? That's the thing I really get triggered that the formula is capitalized. What is it? Why is formula capitalized? Okay, that's the thing. You get triggered by that stuff as well. I really get triggered that the formula is capitalized. What is it? I'm telling you why is it capitalized.
01:03:54 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Ask someone that if you read my tweets you consider me dyslexic, or wonder what happened in grade 9 English like fair, you don't use the proper there and there. But sometimes the auto that's so reliable in other things doesn't come in reliable.
01:04:12 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
This is an intentional capitalization. No, I'm telling you, I don't know it actually might not be because he doesn't use a desktop.
01:04:16 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
He only uses his phone.
01:04:18 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm telling you that's crazy, I'm bad and the thing does no favors.
01:04:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know what. I actually have a theory on this, I do. Because we're idiots and knows that Formula One is capitalized, and if he's only using his phone and he's ever tweeted about Formula One, we've got to look through the GFB stuff, sure, but I'm just saying, zach, get on it.
01:04:37 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
It's supposed to be an ally, but actually it's not an ally. And then the people who are less OCD than you, who will like reread it three times. I get burned, not even three. I'm just saying I get burned all the time, but I'm also an idiot.
01:04:53 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Small sample size, but this guy's gone 21 weeks. It's hard. Obviously you feel it. If you go 10 and 0, you feel like you're hot right, but it's so hard to understand how variance and sample sizes actually work. 10 and 11, there's just, there's no, nothing, it's literally nothing. And there are 50, 50s, I mean the odds of even if he was winning it, you know, 60% the odds he'd have losing. It'd be what, like I don't know. 30, 35%, I mean it's, it's variance is crazy.
01:05:22 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I feel pretty strongly, no matter what system GRP is using, whether that's the formula, or formula, and feel.
01:05:28 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
I think 10 and 11 is very likely.
01:05:32 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Extrapolate that to a larger sample and that's where you're going to end up. What is GRP's edge going to be in the NFL?
01:05:38 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
But I don't believe that he's done hooking up his formula picks. There's no way.
01:05:44 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
But see Zach is searching through here and formula has come up a few times in some of those tweets. It's not capitalized. No, formula one no.
01:05:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I don't know. Now we're forensic detectiving his use of formula.
01:05:58 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
How many of these would he have gotten? Would he have switched if he'd gotten the best number?
01:06:03 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
though, even though the number doesn't matter, Right but see. So here's the thing about GRP he actually says stuff that is contrary to what he believes. He will go drive for fucking an hour to get the best number in market, but he doesn't believe in, like it doesn't make any sense, it's like the dude who says he doesn't care about saving eight cents, but he's in line when the gas goes down eight cents.
01:06:27 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
He's in the 50 minute line when it's just like two blocks that way it's still 10 cents more and there's no line.
01:06:34 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Guest)
Who cares about it when he gets the best price? If the market moves against him, the market's wrong. That's classic tactic, though.
01:06:40 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Somebody brought that up this week about Joey Kanish doing that on Hit the Books as well. Very classic. When the CLV works, Listen. When you're doing content, LV works, Listen. When you're doing content, the natural inclination is to pat yourself on the back.
01:06:52 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
There's so many losses, you've got to take your wins. I agree, I don't mean that about. Like you said, I do content.
01:06:59 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
That's it. I mean, I tried to join Hit the Books this week. Give these guys a prop winner. They fucking shat right all over it. Easy winner, easy winner. That's me doing my own promotion. Easy winner, easy winner. That's me doing my own promotion.
01:07:09
I've made my way into the Action Network Discord now. This was yesterday morning. We know Rob Pozzola is watching, but will you be tuning in to convince me? I like that. The reach is amplifying. It was never really my goal for this to happen, but now that I'm in a large Discord and people see the name, we actually had our highest viewership of Pizza Buffet live yesterday, all time, which I wonder if this had anything to do with people looking me up. Certainly possible. But what I do want to say to people out there is I'm going to use this as an opportunity to promo the Pizza Buffet.
01:07:40
One thing about this Convince Me. Show that happens at the same time as me. I'm not going to convince you that I'm going to give out a side or a total on an NFL Sunday morning when the limits are 100k. That's going to win. I mean, frankly, if anyone's trying to convince you of that, you should be convincing them to just go and bet into an infinite liquidity pool because there's no reason they should be doing content. If that's the case, I don't win on NFL Sundays. 99.9% of people who are betting into full market limits are not going to win on an NFL Sunday.
01:08:12
Join me 11 am, sunday mornings for the Pizza Buffet on Forward Progress. It's a real look into how a real pro bets on the NFL, how I think about the games and if there is anything that we can extract last minute that might potentially have some value that I don't think is priced into market. Convince me, sure, you can watch that if you want to, but I'm not convincing you of anything. All I'm going to do is show you how I handicap the games. Maybe you'll be better off for it, maybe you won't be, but check it out. Pizza Buffet 11 am on Forward Progress. I know you guys tune in.
01:08:45 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, tune in, I enjoy it.
01:08:46 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I know I see you in the chat every now and then.
01:08:48 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I'm often a chatter, but I just like listening, getting kept up. I don't know, I'm just with the kids or something before I abandon my family. So it's like the pre-abandon, because I'm supposed to be paying attention, but it's like in my ear. As for this listen, I've said this Rob Pozzola is one of the last people on earth I would want forensic detectiving my content. I mean that. I mean that If I was in a web of mistruths and Rob Pozzola was on my case, I don't know who the great TV detective is. When that guy's on you now you're toast toast in another life I could have easily been very good detective yeah, I can active
01:09:36 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
or lawyer either one, I would have fit really nicely. Here's one of the beauties of being transparent in your content when you are and you live and like, when you interact with your audience without hiding anything and being truthful, there's nothing that's ever going to come back on you. No one's going to come back and pinpoint something I said and be like oh, rob lied about this because I don't, I don't.
01:10:01 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I think it's very important to be transparent about that yeah, like when you, um, you don't go on make up having a number that never existed, yes, and then that game won, but on the real number. And then you come on the next week and you're happy, you're congratulating yourself for not betting the fake number you said you had, but the real number, which also won, and you probably forgot that you gave a fake number.
01:10:28 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Of course it's hard to keep up with lies in the space. That's why I don't lie when I'm doing content I might occasionally tell a fib to my wife here or there. You know what were you up to last night? I had three drinks when in reality I had eight. That happens.
01:10:41 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Yeah, like how'd you do today in football 50-50. About break even.
01:10:51 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I'm pretty upfront with that too, because people can notice I'm not going to go on air when I've had a shit day and put a smile on and tell people.
01:10:53 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
Your wife can notice when you come down from the dungeon. There's a vibe check, there's a mojo check. I might undersell how much we lost in the day, but also you want to undersell the wins too, because you don't want her thinking that there's a bag or a new bathroom renovation. The classic for me now is you don't want her thinking that there's like a bag or a new bathroom renovation.
01:11:11 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
You know, the classic for me now is when she asked me like did we have a winning day? I say we.
01:11:16 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
I love that, but yeah, it's business, family business, sure.
01:11:19 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
I just say, ask me at the end of the year. I'm like, yes, but how much Ask me at the end of the year? Because it doesn't really matter, it fluctuates so much it's like the roller coaster Plus I don't want to tell her we're up this much and then it goes away in a few weeks.
01:11:34 - Geoff Fienberg (Co-host)
How can it go away if you've never had more than back-to-back losing weeks though?
01:11:41 - Rob Pizzola (Co-host)
Oh, don't get me started on that. She used to be able to access my tracking sheets for hockey so she could log in and see all the bets that we had, but she's going over the box scores too. No, but she would tell me She'd be like, well, we were up this amount at this point and now we're only up this amount. Like what is going on here? Why didn't you just stop betting? Yeah, like, why didn't you stop there? And I'm like well, you know Circles Off, 4 pm Eastern time. It's a great interview.
01:12:17
Make sure that you do check it out, Make sure you're subbed here on Circles Off and you set bell notifications. And, of course, if you did like this episode of Circle Back, do a couple things. Smash that like button down below and share it out to your following as well. Let's grow this thing into something big where people are tuning in every week. So if you can help share it on X, on Facebook, LinkedIn, wherever the hell you want to share it, your WhatsApp groups, please do that. This has been Circle Back. We'll see you again next week. Thank you, oh, baby.
