Pro Bettors Share The Controversial Opinions They Actually Believe | Presented by Kalshi

00:00 - Jack Andrews (Host)
When it comes to sports betting. There's a lot of different opinions out there, even when it comes to professional sports betting, which is why today, we are going to be asking professional sports bettors here in Las Vegas, nevada, at the Circa Resort and Casino what's something you believe that most people in this space do not? 

00:15 - Corbie Craig (Host)
So, Well, that's a good question, I would say. 

00:20 - Porter (Host)
I guess I have a lot of hot takes about how the industry works in general. 

00:26 - Judah Fortgang (Host)
So many things. Knowing ball matters, I think there is a certain sense of if you can't quantify the thing perfectly, it doesn't exist. So in some ways, intuition, yes. In other ways, actually understand that there are multiple ways of knowing things, and one of those ways is really developing an understanding of what does and does not matter, and like that is every bit as legitimate in certain circumstances as like being able to statistically prove it out. 

00:56 - Rufus Peabody (Host)
Okay, I believe that I don't think that AI is gonna suddenly make like completely change the game and I don't think AI basically is going to solve sports betting. 

01:07
I think there's a lot of people that believe you just take a bunch of variables, throw it into a machine learning algorithm or ask chat GBT what to do with it, and at some point you know we're not there with chat GBT yet but that there are people think that at some point, like these LLMs will be able to solve sports betting. 

01:23
But I, I've actually asked an llm this and like I think, because I believe it's a clearly it's a different problem they're solving, and chat gpt agreed with me. I mean, maybe that's because it's like a sycophant and we'll agree with everything I say, uh, but I I think that there is. I think there's a lot of creativity involved and there's so many sort of steps to the process of like originating a good model that it's not. It is such a multi-dimensional, multi-step problem where you're doing a lot of little things at each stage that I don't believe that just throwing, giving a bunch of variables and asking like some sort of machine learning algorithm or AI type thing to figure it out is going to actually get you a good result, and I don't think we're very close to that point where it will. 

02:12
Um, I could be wrong, but that's, that's definitely what I believe. 

02:17 - China (Host)
I'll tell you one thing I don't believe is that you should stay away from high ROI stuff because it's going to cook accounts etc. And you're better off focusing on low ROI stuff that's going to prolong accounts, etc. Sharp bookies are sharp and square bookies are square. So I just say just take all the gold while you can. 

02:42 - Corbie Craig (Host)
This might be a hot take. I guess that's what it's supposed to be. The MLB is more efficient than the NFL. I would say that's probably a hot take. Um, yeah, I would say mostly on sides. I think if you look at the numbers, you can see like from an open to close standpoint, like you're talking about 15, 20 cents in the mlb, and like you see games cross key numbers in the nfl, like at least in the NFL, there's like like idea changes. You know, kickoff changes, like all of these things change. And I mean baseball has been played the same since Babe Ruth was there. Maybe players get better, but I would say the efficiency of MLB is vastly underrated. Someone who can beat sides in the MLB I only bet totals someone who beats sides, like shout out to you, it is an unbelievable market. 

03:24 - PeanutBettor (Host)
Trying to price stuff that is once an event like a one-time thing or happens very infrequently, actually is a pretty good area. So a lot of people get their model and price whatever same thing over and over again, and I think it's really worth the time to attack weird events and stuff like that. 

03:45 - Rufus Peabody (Host)
People bet too small. You got to bet big. You can't become rich by betting small. 

03:50 - Jack Andrews (Host)
We need to educate more recreational bettors, and here's why. It's because the industry is lacking sustainability. 13, 15% hold rates that is wholly unsustainable. If you lose that fast, you sour to sports betting, you don't want to do it anymore. And if they don't want to do it anymore, there's less liquidity in the market for the sharp bettors. It's not person to person, but there's less money in the pool and, as a result, these sports books become more desperate and the cycle perpetuates itself. If you educate recreational bettors so that they lose less, they become a more sustainable customer for everyone, including for the sharp bettors to feast on. 

04:36 - Isaac Rose-Berman (Host)
So I think it depends what you define as the space and when I think of this space that we're talking about here, it's sort of sharp or professional bettors or people who are at least inclined that way and I think it's that gambling has been a net good for them. And I think for most people, even a lot of the people who I know have made money from gambling, it's not clear to me that it's actually been good for them, actually been good for them, whether their personal lives are not the best or they've lost friends or they've lost hair, in Rob's case because they've gotten too stressed from gambling. I think gambling can be great, but I think it's not that it's net bad for everybody. But I think a lot of people can be blind to a lot of the downsides, both for people who lose but even for people who win. 

05:23 - Porter (Host)
How I kind of got started was it was a lot of someone says go left because right doesn't work, like don't bet small markets, don't bet silly stuff. And to me a lot of times when you hear the big names saying this stuff, that's almost an indication to go do it, not because they're trying to be covert to not do this stuff, but because it means there's probably an opportunity or a hole in that market. You know in that niche that if a big person isn't doing well, who's it easier to compete with, like a really big group or effectively nobody doing something in a space. So I would say attack a lot of times these situations that other people are kind of saying can't be done, shouldn't be done, hard to do and in all honesty, the fact that stuff is hard in this industry is actually good, because if it was easy there'd be no edge, everybody would be doing it.