When Is The WRONG Time To Take Advantage Of A Sportsbook? | Presented by Kalshi

00:00 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Here's what's coming up in today's episode of Circle Back. 

00:03 - Storm (Host)
Everybody wants to take the moral high ground, but at the end of the day, most people have and will continue betting things like this, even when they publicly state otherwise. 

00:13 - Flup (Host)
Unfortunately, I am not smart enough and good enough. Better for CLV not to matter to me. 

00:19 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Can you echo any of the I guess some of the sympathies that are shared there? 

00:23 - Flup (Host)
No, it's very scary when I post an order on like a Novig or a Kalshi and it gets completely filled. You know oh shit. 

00:33 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Someone knows something that I don't. Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions. 

01:29
Circle back here on the circles off channel. It's part of the hammer betting network and it's presented by calci. We love calci here on the circles off channel. We're gonna talk a lot about them over the course of the video today. If you guys do enjoy along the way, please make sure you do hit the like button. Make sure you subscribe to the channel as well for circle back content every tuesday and friday, plus additional content coming your way soon on the channel, which will leave up to a little bit of a surprise, but I know you are going to want to see. 

01:51
We're going to get back to the normal cast for the Friday shows, which includes me. I haven't been here for one of the Friday shows for a while, other than the live show, so happy to be back. My name is Jacob Germania I. I am the host on circle back. I'm also a producer for the hammer. We have in the bottom left corner of the screen, chris deer. Kiss at fluff, no lie. Our resident one-time contest winner and professional sports better. In the bottom right corner of the screen we have our resident college football expert, the host on hit the books, alongside brad powers here at the hammerback derrick for college football content, joey Kanish with the lovely tag I love Calchi, I mean, I do as well. And in the top right corner, the fourth person who will be joining us for this episode is Storm Pig. You can follow him at Storm, underscore Pig on Twitter. Storm, how do you feel to be joining these Circles Off panel for today's show? 

02:42
Apparently, I am switching from the nameless, faceless burner crowd to the circles off crowd, and I'm not sure which one is worse, so to be determined, you know some people, I think, have come on the show and have benefited from showing their face and and being outward like this, and I think some people have actually gone in the other direction where maybe it would have been better if they had stayed anonymous. So time will tell how it will fare for you on today's that did the circle. 

03:10 - Joey Knish (Host)
It was uh, he, george. Uh, he had like a george costanza burner or something, uh, on twitter and he did an episode of circles off with rob and his voice sounded like he was, like you know, six years old and we never heard from him again. 

03:24
He like stopped tweeting after that gambling costanza yeah, just trolled everybody endlessly and then, yeah, that probably wasn't the best idea no, no, he had like a great six month run of like tweeting and then like one episode of circles off, but now he's been gone for two years, so so well. 

03:41 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
We'll see how it fairs for you, storm. My only time will tell. But thank you again for joining us here today. Let's jump into the episode. Everybody, honestly, topics today it was I say this a lot, but it was so hard to trim this one down. There were so many good topics to discuss today and some of the stuff in the chopping block later on it could have very easily been full-scale segments, but we had to do what we had to do, but scale segments, but we had to do what we had to do. But there was only one topic that was ever going to lead us off for today's episode, same lead-off topic as it was for the tuesday show. But now we have the man himself, chris deer, gets here to discuss it. 

04:13
So, uh, the first three tweets I'm going to pull up here are are the same as the tweets that we showcased on the tuesday show, but just to kind of refresh people, the first one comes from Rishi bets. At Rishi bets thing, it's funny seeing the virtue signaling reactions to the flip tennis thing, as if a single one of you wouldn't try to get a live money line bet and if you see a player walk into the net to retire and don't try to come up with some arbitrary ethical difference. And this is in reaction to flip. You posted some negative tweets in regard to our sponsor, cal she, and it was like what 30 minutes before our live show at bet bash, sponsored by calchi. Uh, you posted some negative comments in regards to a bet you made on what was. I'll let you explain it in a second here, but to my understanding it was an event that was already closed or a player was about to retire, where the traders had accidentally left it up, and you were taking a shot on that and made a bet, and then you ended up losing a little bit of money Again. I'll let you clarify in a second here, but just to go through the rest of the tweets man of the Vag at Glaze Police 69 says this seems very shady on Flub's part. 

05:15
Dude bet a shit ton on a side that was already settled, trying to squeeze value from a closed market. Dude's lucky they didn't keep his whole fucking fucking bag and ban his account. To be honest, shady shit. And the final one we talked about was from andy molliter at andy msfw. Flip probably shouldn't tweeted that, but the folks trying to nail him to a cross maybe should chill a bit too. So there's some harsh reactions on the tuesday show. I think we're all in the same sort of opinion that you know you took your shot. We all probably would have done the same and that's a whole conversation we're going to get to, but in the end you kind of have to take the penalty. It's been a week. What are your thoughts on it a week later? Because you have deleted the tweets and also, can you start by maybe clarifying exactly what happened? 

05:54 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, so full context of everything. So I get a DM from someone on Twitter saying I should bet on Coco Gauff because her opponent has withdrawn. I quickly look up and I saw an hour ago it's been up for a full hour that the person that Coco was playing I can't really pronounce her name had withdrawn. And I had heard about Calci had rules that they settle to 100 cents based on the winner. I had seen that before. People talked about it. So I figure okay, let me go buy some. So I go, I go buy. It was clearly versus a market maker, because when you could, you could just tell based on the sizes they're offering. And then when I bought them, they auto repopulated. So I buy it. But when I bought it I got a warning notification saying like, hey, if this, you should check to make sure this person isn't retired, withdrawn. So then I'm I look into the rules, and the rules of the couch of it of it say that they're going to settle at the price previously before close or cancellation, rather. So I think to myself oh okay, I'm not going to get the free roll anymore, it's not going to close at 100 cents, but it's just going to close at the price I got, which was 90 or 91 cents. Then I see they close at 74 cents, which was the price that it closed the moment before Coco Gauss' opponent withdrew. And that's what the rule had meant. And if you think about it, it makes logical sense. Everyone thought that their match would be played, and at $0.74, it was the exact moment that there was a withdrawal. $0.90 was just people attempting to free roll and pushing the price up at that point. So the previous hour people had probably been doing the same thing and pushing it from $0.74 up to $0.90. The previous hour people had probably been doing the same thing and pushing it from 74 cents up to 90 cents. 

07:47
But I've only had experiences with sports books where if you bet on something and it's like, say, for example, you bet on an MLB game and it gets rained out, they don't just play it out at like 50 cents or like half your bet back, you just get it voided. And I had thought back to the profit x um scandal, like months ago, where we had a user um try to do something and profit just voided all the bets. So I was thinking to myself why aren't they voiding the bets if this happened? This. This is a little annoying. So I contact cal and I'm like what's going on here? And I tried doing it like privately and whatnot and handling that situation. And they're like nope, sorry, this is just like in our rules. And I'm like, well, I feel like I should like I got screwed here. I feel like you should, you know, pay me back to 32,000. And they're like no, and I was just very mad at this point because I'm like I thought that they would just. I've only had experiences where they just void. 

08:50
So at that point on, after the conversation with the Kelsey rep, I angrily tweet and I apologize for that, because, after everything, I've spent the past couple of days trying to really understand why Kelsey's made these decisions and reflecting on everything. And I have no one to blame but myself. Their rules clearly stated what was going to happen. I was preaching before Make sure you understand the house rules. It is my fault for not understanding the house rules before making that bet. I deserve to lose the $32,000. At this point, I have no one to blame but myself and I shouldn't have tried to bash Calchi, because what I now learn and understand now is Calchi really has no choice. Their hands are tied, they cannot void. And that's what I want to get into now is kind of explain why Calchi cannot void Because they're an exchange. 

09:41
A common example I would use is Because they're an exchange. A common example I would use is say I bought 100 contracts of the Eagles versus the Cowboys at $0.40, and I bought them from Storm. Then I sell those same 100 contracts to Knish for $0.45. I've just profited $5. I bought Storm for $0.40, sold to Knish for $0.45. And Storm and Knish now effectively have a bet against each other. If that bet game were to get canceled or rained out or whatever and Kalshi were to void it Storm and Kanishk, they both would walk away with zero. But I would still walk away with my $5 that I made switching, buying and selling. 

10:29
So if that were to happen, any market that Calci does not void or take down immediately leaves themselves extremely vulnerable to have bad apples going and trade back and forth amongst everything and just screw Calci over for millions of dollars so they can't void it. It opens up too bad of a can of orbit and that's why they drew such a hard line and it makes sense. I know like knish and other sports bettors like, I'm sure storm instinctively think this is ridiculous. Why don't I avoid? But when you learn that, you understand why they can't do it. And then you might say, well, why don't they just hold it in escrow until the event's canceled? Well, they have events like the presidential market. They can't just hold that in escrow for four years. 

11:10
So they're in a really bad spot where there's just a lot of bad options and they picked, in my opinion, the best option and I feel bad for attempting to drag them and do this and that's why I publicly apologize for that. I'm fine with keeping that tweet up, my apology tweet up, but I don't think Alshie wanted any of the negative attention. It sounded like, when I called them and I apologized to them on the phone, privately too, that they didn't want it up, so that's why I've taken it down. I feel very bad about the situation because this is entirely my fault. I took a shot and the shot slapped me back and I lost 32,000 and I fucking deserve it. 

11:48
So lesson learned, and I hope that clears up to everyone as to why the situation happened, why I lost money, why they can't void and unfortunately, something like this is going to happen again because there are so many markets. Calci is just not able to take everything down the moment it happens, like take the poke market, if the poke were to just like randomly get nominated. They can't just have someone just sitting there on Twitter snap refreshing permanently because there's too many markets to do that. They're going to have a few minutes, sometimes an hour or two, before the market gets taken down, and this situation will happen again and people just need to understand the rules before they play on Cal Sheet. 

12:25 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Makes sense. Good explanation there. Um, why we go to you storm on this one? Just from because kanish was on the panel with me so we were kind of embroiled within this. But from an outside, looking in perspective, what did you make of this whole thing over the last week? 

12:39 - Storm (Host)
well, the first thing I have to say is chris, you are on a speed run to the most public apologies in gambling Twitter history in the shortest amount of time, which is fine. 

12:51 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
You get very passionate about things. I do think it's good that you're willing to apologize for stuff. 

12:56 - Storm (Host)
No, changing your position based on new information is one of the best things people can do in sports and I commend you for that. The importance of house rules is the number one thing here. Obviously, you took your shot. It didn't work out For me. 

13:15
I think a lot of people made it a bigger deal than it was, and I told you this privately. Because you post such big tickets all the time, there's a lot of envy out there, so I think it turned into a simple black and white issue, into everybody dunking on you per usual. And then you know you have the reasonable people like Rishi and I think Andy was the other tweet basically saying, hey, this isn't that big of a deal. He shouldn't have tweeted that and you know that's the end of the story. But per usual, you know Bet Bash was going on. 

13:48
Everybody wanted to chime in with their two cents, get their narrative in. As far as the Rishi tweet, you know I think most of us would agree with that, especially Kanisha and I. You know the way that we bet. We absolutely would be on your side there trying to take advantage of something like that, and I, for sure, have been burned in the past for trying to take shots at spots like that and not reading the house rules Obviously different from a sportsbook perspective, but I think it's important especially after leaving BetBash trying to pivot more towards prediction markets exchanges that seems like the next big wave that everybody needs to thoroughly understand what they're doing before they hop in full speed, because I definitely don't know what I'm doing there yet. So if I don't, I'm sure a lot of people don't that are just as big or bigger in sports. 

14:41 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I was going to say, if you wanted to talk about two people who you know were on the other panel, that don't mind an angle shot here, and then you got the right crowd with that. I'm also I'm saddened that we all wore black for the funeral and we can't really come down and, you know, bury them for this. And it's funny because the one thing that I was really going to go in on was how ridiculous I thought this house rule was of of no voiding and it's like how I've never, you know, only dealing with, for the most part, sports books and that I'm on for the majority of my career and not having, as as you guys are saying, kind of this new exchange experience, was thinking like this has got to be the stupidest thing I've ever seen in my life. Then, fluff, we had a conversation last night where he more thoroughly explained it and then explained it here publicly on the show. I guess I now understand, um, kind of why they don't want to be left holding the bag in these scenarios and that's a very like. 

15:35
It's interesting how that kind of manifests now and how that'll come out publicly, because I mean, this is something that is because you're kind of saying so, like a whole new world of what that's going to look like, kind of in the, the new era where exchanges are part of the picture, where you kind of have this old model with the sports book where anytime an event would be canceled like it's just a void, no question whatsoever. 

15:58
To this new era for you know books like calci in that, where it's going to be this weird gray area, some places might handle it differently and you'll have to be really in tune with how that kind of stuff is going to be good. So so you don't end up with a situation like this where you end up, you know, holding the bag for 30k because, uh, you know it's like a new scenario where people aren't really sure how it settles. So I see it from the calci side of thing, but it kind of speaks to just like you're gonna have to be very clear, along with cal sheet and some other places and all the other places, of how they're going to handle kind of these niche, unique, uh circumstances that come up so it's all. 

16:35 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
It just seems like you know we always talk about read the house rule before you bet, and if you don't like, you can't be mad over the house rules. Perhaps in this case it was. It was just a bit of a misunderstanding for those house rules in place. Flop, did you want to add on to something? 

16:49 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, I just want to say man of the Badge's tweet, in my opinion, is reasonably fair. I think Calchi is in their right to ban me from if they don't want to have angle shooters on their platform. That's totally fair. Have angle shooters on their platform, that that's totally fair. Um, I would I would ask calchi, if they thought about it, to like look at my track record of volume. This has been the first attempt that I've done and unfortunately it blew up in my face. 

17:14 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Well, you mean you made it public when it didn't need to be? I guess exactly, no, exactly and they're. 

17:21 - Flup (Host)
They're within their right, like those exchanges are in their right, to ban people they deem is not good for the ecosystem. Which angle shooters aren't? Penny jumpers aren't People that post like the 99 cents on, like games that are coin flips, are not good for the ecosystem? They're totally fair in their right. And that becomes like I think that goes into the next topic we're going to discuss, which is like the ethics behind it, like is it OK to do things like that? Is it? Should the exchange be banning these people? Should they not? And I don't. I don't really have answers. Seems like there's a lot of people that I respect on both sides of it. I flip flop my view like 20 times in the last four days. I don't know what the socially acceptable and right thing to do is and these kinds of things. 

18:07 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So, as I segue into that topic, do you regret taking that shot? Like not not obviously you regret losing the money, but like you talk about, like you need to take risk in order to earn in this space, do you regret having taken that shot? 

18:19 - Flup (Host)
Yes, and I regret taking a shot because you know, if I think about it, where my stance currently is is I was such an egregious shot at someone, even though it was a market maker and most likely Sig. That doesn't change the fact like they're kind of built on respect and Sig didn't know I assume they just had an automated model that didn't know that Coco Gauff had already won the match. Like that's just like out of line in my, in my opinion, if I'm taking a shot where, like it just comes out that like Coco Gauff's feeling sick and I get ahead of them, that's probably more reasonable and fair. So I do regret doing that and I don't believe I would do this moving forward Now, if, like the court of a public opinion, because these kinds of things and ethics are kind of built, what would like the court of a public opinion, because these kinds of things and ethics are kind of built, what, what socially is acceptable? 

19:07
Things have changed over the course of human history. If people say, hey, actually it's no big deal, then maybe I'll revisit it, but right now I regret it, not only for making it public but for doing the shot, because it was such an egregious angle, front, running like a injury news or something like that. That's probably more more Okay. 

19:22 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Okay, let. Okay, let's dig into that topic now. Then let's go to what we have up next, because, again, it was a big topic that stemmed from this conversation here and it stemmed from, actually, the Tuesday show, where Rob Pozzola, ceo of the Hammer Professional Better, was talking about his stance on this and saying, like you know, all these people getting mad at Chris for taking this angle shot, rob said like a lot of people would have done the same thing. In fact, he said 99% of people would do that. This conversation was brought up by Vegas Horse Pools at Vegas Horse Pools. So they really. It was a quote from like a wisdom quote. Anyways, he says I've known Rob for many years, going all the way back to Bet Bash 1. I like him and I respect him. We don't agree a hundred percent on every single issue, and that's okay. 

20:06
Yesterday, rob said something that needs commented on publicly. He was talking on this on his show about a guy shooting an angle. So that was you, chris, and how 99% of his friends would have done the same thing. This is why this industry that we both love is going in the wrong direction. I talk on the phone almost every day with a bookmaker. We are friends and we both can make money. We don't have to hate each other. This angle shooting makes them hate betters. Rob, I consider us friends, so I must be in the 1%. I don't take shots, I don't shoot angles and 99% of my friends don't either. We're trying to make the industry better, not worse. As a leader in the industry, you need to do the right thing. This was. This was again on the show, and vegas horse pools asked us to pull up the video, so that's actually exactly what we're going to do on the show right now. 

20:49 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
I'm going to play you the clip here first and foremost, people who do want to crucify him, not 99 of people who see a market open after the fact, where they know what the result is already are going to bet it, the sportsbook you used to consult for left up an nhl free agency market for what team a player would be on next after he signed. 

21:07 - Storm (Host)
Yeah, smashed it. 

21:08 - Rob Pizzola (Host)
All my friends smashed it sure like and you know the risks that come with it. You you know at that point that they could void your bet potentially. They could, just they could shut your account down to zero. I mean, if it's offshore, they might not. They could fucking seize your funds if they could do whatever the fuck they want. Basically, so that risk is associated with these types of bets. 

21:32 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So let's go to you, Storm. In this conversation, Flop kind of gave his thoughts already. You already kind of mentioned it. But why don't you dig a little bit deeper? Like you were in agreement, you would have taken the bet that Flop took and you would take this bet consistently in other sportsbooks. 

21:49 - Storm (Host)
Yeah, 100%, taken this same. You would have taken the bet that philip took and you would take this bet consistently at other sports books. Yeah, 100, I'll go through the vegas horse bull tweet. Um, just like piece by piece. Just talks about knowing rob, like you're respecting him. Rob glazing we don't need to glaze rob. Um, yesterday rob said something okay. Uh, this is why this industry that we both love is going in the wrong direction. 

22:05
I talk on the phone almost every day with a bookmaker, so context matters here. I matched with Vegas Horsepools at Bet Bash and he is the customer support person for Spot Odds now, like that needs to maintain impeccable relationships with a sports book. He's not approaching this conversation as a sports better. He's approaching it as somebody who manages a product who needs to maintain those sort of relationships. He moves on to say we are friends and we can both make money. We don't have to hate each other. This angle shooting makes them hate betters. Yes and no. I mean teaching a sports book how to play better defense isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world. Um, don't need to get that far into that. Uh, rob is all I consider as friends. I must be in the one percent. I don't take shots and my friends don't either. 

23:00
I have a problem with this part, too, because you don't know what your friends are betting and if you looked in all of their accounts I would make it a heavy favorite that they are betting things like this, betting bad lines, et cetera. 

23:16
I just I said it earlier. There's a lot of virtue signaling that goes on, and these conversations happen every single month about bad lines or taking shots. Everybody wants to take the moral high ground, but at the end of the day, most people have and will continue betting things like this, even when they publicly state otherwise. It's just again. It's one of those things that gets discussed every single month on twitter, and somebody always wants to be the moral police, but at the end of the day, everybody bets things like this. Sports books always make mistakes, and then you can devolve the conversation even further into okay, so should you not bet on a slow moving book or recreational book? If they're slow to move the line on an injury play like where are you drawing the line, and it just becomes too much I mean some of my biggest I have. 

24:10 - Joey Knish (Host)
I would just first of all like totally disagree with the vega. I'm sure, like good guy, I know he's doing the spot odds thing and he's respecting the industry and all that um, and I appreciate you provided that context, because he, yeah, he's not looking at it right now from from a true betting standpoint. Some of my I mean just biggest scores ever, like probably the top five, are all some combo of known outcome or angle shoot or type of edge thing that like worked and so to me, this is part of the game. Like I know everybody wants to think, like in the purity of, like I made the number five and you know what I bet minus three and it landed four, and like that in this altruistic, like that's how sports betting really should be, and like the bookmaker better relationship and all that. 

24:56
In reality, for most people that even like want to win at a successful level, there's going to be some level of angle shoot, information, market, new things that weren't out there, that had to happen for you to to make it or gain it, or that's part of your portfolio. So I've done it a thousand times, I'll do it a thousand more. Um, if I want to throw one thing, devil's advocate in there, it's on an exchange, and you're doing it versus a direct counterparty, versus a you know a sports book that might absorb it. Do you want to make that argument? Sure, but I think then you can go down the storm of like. If you have injury information, does that make it so? I don't know, in the end I think it's. It can be a ruthless game and this is just part of it. 

25:45 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Yeah uh, interesting, uh, your take on that, you both support it. Uh, flip, you kind of were maybe moving away from it. So do you have like any rebuttal to what storm and kanish were saying there? Or like what's your opinion now, what's your stance at this point? 

26:00 - Flup (Host)
well, I don't even know if I have a fluid like a sorry, a firm stance. 

26:04
It's very fluid right now because I think both sides have valid points, like I think storm and Kanish make great points and others like I was listening to or not listening to, reading Rufus's tweets today about how, like you know, he wouldn't angle a sports book like Circa, who treats their customers fairly and well, but he would on someone like MGM. I think that's like reasonable and that's similar to like what Kanish was saying. With like an exchanges with an account party, and like I would ask, do people feel differently because my counterparty was Sig versus a random person? You know it probably shouldn't matter. You should probably have everyone treat everyone the same, but unfortunately, when they're your other counterparties, like when MGM treats us so much differently than Circa, does you do have to change your behaviors as well. And I don't think I think the most important thing this is not black and white. There's a lot of gray and as exchanges become bigger and bigger, eventually there will be more unified and socially acceptable lines, and I think it's on the exchange to ensure what's fair is maintained. 

27:16 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
From my perspective on this. I think you know Storm said where do you draw the line? I think it's tough to say. There's a lot of nuance to it. I think, when it comes to like peer-to-peer betting, like exchanges because I think exchanges are going to be a significant part of the future of sports betting I do think it's important to, in a way, protect that ecosystem and perhaps in those situations you could definitely make a strong case that okay, this exists, this is a great product that exists and in order for it to exist like this, you can't really take a shot like that. 

27:46
But like when it comes to sportsbook, like even one like circa, like if I'm, if I make a mistake in a bet, I I place, like I don't know, every once in a while you bet like the wrong side of something or or think that that nature. The sportsbook is going to offer me absolutely no sympathy in those discussions. So I I don't really see, I don't really see why I need to provide them sympathy when, when a line is is put up incorrectly, when they're not factoring in something like oh, just just something, there's a nuance to the game that they're not factoring in something along those lines. I don't see why I need to give them the respect and not bet that when they would not provide me the same respect back. You know, uh, a lot of the conversation on Twitter has been like treat, uh, treat people the way you want to be treated. 

28:31
I'm kind of like I don't know if it's quite the opposite, but like I'm going to reciprocate the energy that is provided to me and if the energy provided to me is that the sports book is going to limit me, the sports book is not going to show me any sympathy for a mistake that I do, I'm not going to provide any of that back. So, you know, I I'm in a pretty large agreement with with storm and kanish on this one where, like, yeah, I would, I, I would take my shots and you know, I can see, I can see why you took this shot flip. Honestly, I, I don't think I ever disagreed with you taking it. I, I, the only thing is just. The only thing I disagree with is you have to understand the consequences that come, yeah, with something like that what I said. 

29:07 - Flup (Host)
I feel like where I should be continuing to get clowned on this because I took a shot lost and then whined like a bitch yeah, I was going to ask what did you think tweeting was going to do? 

29:16 - Storm (Host)
Were they just going to be like, hey, we're going to put the money right back in your account? 

29:19 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
right away. I think Chris knew we had a show coming up and just wanted to no, no, Honestly what it was is. 

29:26 - Flup (Host)
I recall the ProfitX situation where someone did basically the same thing that I did and the whole community backed them and I was like, oh, and I'm like, oh, they're going to like me and maybe Calc will fucking refund me, which at the time I felt like they owed it to me because I felt like their house rules were so stupid, like why wasn't it voided? It made no sense. Obviously, now I've changed my opinion and with the new information, realized how stupid I looked. But one thing I do want to say is it was funny at Bet Bash I was at dinner with Jacob Warnsky, the CEO of no Big, and we was talking about this is like as like an exchange. Should they be banning angle shooters, penny jumpers and and people posting that thing? And it's funny. 

30:12
Before this whole thing even broke down, I was making the argument that they shouldn't, because fundamentally I'm a free market capitalist, True and true. I'm not like Communist Canada where everything's free over there. And it's ridiculous and I worry that we go down a slippery slope is, if we start banning penny jumpers, angle shooters, those kind of people do that we ban. Hey, these people win too much on the exchange. They're not good for the ecosystem because on exchanges, people that are winning are taking from the ecosystem. They're actually not good either for the ecosystem. Should they get banned? And then is it only break-even customers and then is it only like losing customers. This might be dramatic, but I do think it has some semblance of merit. And it's just where do you draw the line? If you draw a line and say, hey, ban all the English shooters, that could be cool and I could live with that, but I think it's not black and white. 

31:05 - Storm (Host)
One other thing I wanted to add to the conversation. When a lot of those people say, oh, you want to keep the bookie better relationship. This is why I don't do this at Circa, to me it's kind of bullshit, right? People who are betting bad lines most of the time are going to be fairly experienced. If you have that experience, you know which books are going to push those bets through and grade them and which aren't. 

31:30
Most of these people know at this point Circa is not going to push a palp through, chris is not going to push a palp through and to an extent even like your bigger, you know per head books. You know the guys with experience. I'm not going to name names, but you know where you're going to be able to bet a bad line and get it graded and not be able to get it graded. And a bad line and get it graded and not be able to get it graded. And most people know that Circa is not going to grade those things. So it's again more virtue signaling when people are like, oh, you know, I'm not going to bet this at Circa because they're such great guys and like, yeah, it's a great book and Benson's a great guy and he's funny on Twitter, but that's not the reason that people don't bet it there. It's because it's a waste of time and you know it's not going to get graded. 

32:11 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Makes sense. A really interesting topic to start us off, which is why we're taking a good amount of time on this one. Just to end it off here. Some of the replies to this one to the Vegas horse pool posts came from Bronner and Kirk Evans, who was on the Tuesday show. Bronner said no book wants you to take its money, even if you win legitimately. So Bronner said no book wants you to take its money, even if you win legitimately. No book is going to let you do that for an unlimited amount of money. 

32:34
The reason why books clutch their pearls about angle shooting is that nearly anyone can do it. Sports books are going to be fine. If you angle shoot a friend, you're kind of a scumbag. But a sports book is not your friend. Even if you are a friend with someone who works there, they are not the book and they get paid the same, even if you hit something. Kirk Evans, who is our resident sportsbook simp here at the Hammer, says yes, angle shooting a friend equals scumbag. Angle shooting a sportsbook equals who cares? So maybe deviating a little bit away from the sportsbook simp mindset there, but it felt like there was a good mix of opinions here. It doesn't feel like there's a definitive majority on one side. So I'd love to hear the thoughts and opinions in the comments down below. What is your take on angle shooting? Where do you draw the line? When is it okay, when is it not okay? It's very good discussion and I would love to see what the people in the comments have to say on that one. 

33:23
And speaking of Calchi, that brings us into our second topic, which is on the Super Bowl halftime show for 2026, because the conversation surrounds who is going to headline the Super Bowl halftime show. I have the market here up from Cal Shee a lot of liquidity in this market, I feel $609,000 in this one. Taylor Swift currently given a 58% chance to headline the halftime show. Metallica is at 21% and Jay-Z is at 11%. So again, I feel like it's a decent amount of liquidity in this one. Taylor swift has been favored to take this spot and there was a big spike after her appearance on the new heights podcast with the kelsey brothers and a lot of it I mean, some of it has delved from the easter eggs that potentially were dropped over the course of that episode. I I just think some of this is like the ah, I gotta watch what I say about the Swifties here. I'm not a Swifty, but oftentimes Taylor Swift does drop a lot of Easter eggs which tease albums coming out and days that stuff is going to come out, and perhaps it is teasing a Superbowl halftime show appearance because for this article here from SB nation, written by James Dator Hopefully I said that correctly there is the sourdough theory, where she talked about sourdough and sourdough is linked heavily to the city of San Francisco where the Super Bowl is going to be played. 

34:41
There is the stream links theory, where she mentioned Travis Kelsey screaming at her for 47 seconds. 47 is was the 47th show of the era's tour, which was in levi stadium, which is the home of the super bowl in 2026. Uh, there's the lombardi trophy in the background which they kind of forced in because I didn't even fit on the shelf. They had to lay it on its size aside. That's a replica that travis kelsey got for winning the super bowl and everyone's trying to piece this together. But anyways, on this market in particular, let's go to you first of all, kenneth. We haven't heard from you in a while Any thoughts on this market whatsoever, any thought on the craze when it comes to the Easter eggs with Taylor Swift. 

35:20 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, appreciate me leading off the real hard-hitting topics we've gotten to so far. I like when people get into like the weeds and the granularity of this and kind of some of the like the you know the old theories. It's almost like a little bit of you know when you're trying to cap like a random sport. So I appreciate the efforts here. I don't, I mean, do I think it would make sense for the NFL to have, you know, taylor Swift, you know headline in the show? Well, she's like yes, I do. Am I laying that new price on Cal sheet? No, no, I'm not doing that because I think they can pull the rug and some of these are a little like some of the connect the dots get a little bit of like into you know crazed person territory. 

36:06 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Whoa, whoa, whoa, that's this watch. We say about the Swifties here Whoa, whoa, whoa, let's watch what we say about the Swifties here. 

36:10 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, I was going to say hashtag return fire. Kirk's probably got some infighting info. That's the next vacation we have for six months here for our hammer employees. It's going to be Kirk traveling around the world with beer. So yeah, that's, but I don't have. I respect the effort from the Swifties but I don't. 

36:30 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
That's all I got on that one. How about you Storm any thoughts on this market? 

36:34 - Storm (Host)
My first thought is that we need to get the Swifties involved in sports betting because their decoding skills are much better than us. Yeah, some of our favorite touts out there. My biggest takeaway from this is just I had a conversation with somebody about it this morning is betting information markets on these exchanges become so interesting? Because you would get you know kanish. You could speak on this probably better than I can. When you're betting novelty markets on these sports books and it's information based, you get free rolled or they'll cancel bets or things like that, or it's like 25 bucks. 

37:12 - Joey Knish (Host)
Now you see exchanges, entire games changed, now 600 game value. 

37:17 - Storm (Host)
Exactly so it's. It becomes interesting, and now you have to consider the CFTC governing part of things. Okay, who's allowed to bet information? When are they allowed to bet? How much are they allowed to profit at? At what point of liquidity is somebody coming in and blasting an information market, taking all this money from people, and when is that OK, when is it not so? I'm very interested to see how this plays out going forward with these information markets. 

37:49 - Flup (Host)
Any thoughts from you. Well, I'd just rather wait to see who gets announced and then see if I can go back. That's funny. 

37:59 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
And hey, you could do that with high liquidity markets available on CalSheet. Maybe not in that regard, but if you do have a strong take on something like this or a unique market like this like I said, over $600,000 in liquidity on this market. Who is going to be the halftime show at the Super Bowl in 2026? 

38:16 - Flup (Host)
Okay, I will say I'm glad we finally picked a real market for once. I'm tired of picking these markets that are like $4,000 in liquidity. This is actually somewhat efficient at $600,000 in liquidity, If you ever have any suggestions. 

38:30 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I always ask for them. You could give us suggestions of what market you want to cover. It's not always up to me or Rob. Next week I'll be on you for that one and we'll have some more interesting markets to cover. There's always interesting markets to discuss with Calci. 

38:49
You can sign up to Calci using the QR code that is on screen right now. If you're watching the video, at any time over the course of the video, you can go to the link in the description, or if you're listening in audio form, you can go to the link in the description there as well. Again, calsci is a great product. We've been over it. Great product offers a lot of volume in some of these unique markets and also a lot of liquidity in some more mainstream markets that you're aware of. Go on CalSci. Go on cal sheet. Check out some of these markets. If you do so with the link or the qr code, you're supporting the hammer in the process as well. Now, before we jump into our next topic, get to the next part of the show. We're going to talk to one of the new shows that's coming to the hammer jason here and I've got something new for you. 

39:21 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Starting friday, september 5th, I'll be hosting hammer daily every weekday at noon eastern, on the hammer hq youtube channel. Think daily picks across as many sports as possible with the sharpest minds in the game joining me. But listen, this isn't some boring. Everything's a lock show. We're leaning into personality fun and giving you the kind of sports betting content you'll actually want to tune into. Set your calendars, subscribe to the channel and don't miss a beat. 

39:47 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Hammer daily is your new lunch break ritual next topic and we're shifting over into the pig seller conversation here. This comes from PipsNBA at PipsNBA, who was my co-host on the board YouTube channel for NBA content. Extremely sharp NBA, better specializing in player prompts, at props, and previously ran a service where he sold those player prop pigs. Isn't going to be doing that anymore, but brought up this topic here. He said throughout my life I've been in a ton of paid groups, some good, some bad. The truth about 95% genuinely believe they're providing value. Most aren't and they don't know they aren't. I know this as a fact because I talked to so many of them throughout the years. I know some great guys with insane ball knowledge who can beat props or low liquidity in niche markets, but they're not providing a good, valuable service and they don't realize it. Because it takes a deeper understanding of the betting world Limits, liquidity, different sports book timings, tracking, et cetera. I'd advise all of them to join other people's paid groups and actually tail the bets. Try betting firsthand from the receiving end and you will figure out quickly all the stuff you do wrong in less than a week. So he didn't mention anyone in particular, but I think this and I'm not. I'm not suggesting that Pips is linking this to him. 

40:56
However, a conversation that has arisen on Twitter and in the Circleback group chat is on the topic of Steve Fezzik. Fezzik runs a paid service where we feel as though it may not be providing value to the customers, even though Fezzik himself could be winning Now, maybe not this year. I providing value to the customers, even though Fezzik himself could be winning Now, maybe not this year. I think he's down 76 units at this point, but anyways, we discussed does Steve Fezzik think he's providing a very good service to his customers or does he think he is not but doesn't want to admit it? Now, my thought is he believes he is providing a good service. You mentioned I don't know where you, I think you mentioned in the group chat. I don't know where you mentioned, but you mentioned you believe he knows, or he believes he's not providing good service, but he doesn't want people to believe that and he wants to essentially still profit off of that service. Can you confirm that stance and, if so, can you elaborate on it? 

41:49 - Flup (Host)
Yes, I stand by that stance. I was like flabbergasted listening to last circle back. Rob was saying like oh no, I don't think Steve Fezzik actually thinks he's losing. I think he's just a nice guy and just sucking Steve off, which I thought was like very weird. In my opinion, steve is too smart of a person to not know what he's doing. I just I don't see how someone who did win years ago does not understand that he's not winning anymore. 

42:20
He's said so many things where he's like he's contradicted himself so many times where he said like I believe X, y and Z, then does X, y and Z. Well, how can you say that you believe this or you believe this shouldn't happen, and then do it yourself? You have to know deep down that you're just being a fraud and you're misleading and not providing value to your customers. I remember once he said like what am I supposed to do? Not sell? When someone pressed him on why he was releasing a prop punt that had very little liquidity, because in his mind, he needs to keep grifting, because that's his best source of income, so there's no other option. So that's why, to me, I think he's got to know at this point. He's very aware. In my opinion, I don't buy this. Oh, he's just a nice guy and he he doesn't realize what he's doing to the community argument at all. He knows what he's doing and I believe he should be attacked for it. 

43:19 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
You're, you're alleging all of this. 

43:22 - Flup (Host)
I am alleging all of this. Yes. 

43:24 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Chris Dierkus says, opinions don't necessarily reflect that entire hammer betting network. Uh kanish, what are your thoughts on this conversation? 

43:31 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean, I agree with this tweet 100 where, um, I think most people even like forget for a second, you're talking like you're, you know your discord, prop people or any of that they have like this gambler's fallacy or this like you know this, this ego level of like, no, no, no, I'm a winnie. It doesn't even like compute for them on the back end of like I could be a losing better. It's like no, I win, even if I've given out, you know, this one home run parlay from nine months ago that maybe a handful of people in my you know discord got. That's the only reason I'm above water now you know I've lost 80 in a row, but but this one that I got for 120 to one hit, it's not like adding up. Or they don't look at it or they don't believe it because maybe they've bet $5 on it. 

44:20
The other aspect is when you have people paying you for pick, you're not feeling the actual financial impact as much as someone who is solely tailing you. They don't have that financial income from the pick sales, they're just looking at their account and it's like win-loss tailing you, whereas if you have, you know, 200 subs, 500 subs all paying you 10, 20 bucks a month, you're like, oh, I've still got plenty of income to bet with. It never really sets in that your picks might be losing over a long period of time. So I tend to just generally believe that a lot of people are, you know, either delusional or in a fallacy, or think they win. They actually don't. They don't keep records or any of that. 

45:02
Um, and the other aspect of there's no, you're not on the other side of it trying to like tell your own that you might go in and hit it at xyz book as you're releasing it and then you're leaving. You know your, how, how many people you have to try and get the rest. So I just generally think, yeah, for the most part. I mean, it's just nets back to. It's really tough to run a good service and have your clients happy with what they're able to get down. 

45:31 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
How about you Storm? What do you think? 

45:34 - Storm (Host)
I'm pretty aligned with both of these guys here. I don't want to like beat the dead horse of the all. Touts are bad. One thing I think that's good to focus on with this tweet is what he said about what it takes to succeed, which is, you know, understanding, limits, liquidity, sportsbooks, timing, tracking, and I don't know Pips, but it sounds like he's no longer selling. My guess is he aligned with some groups or something this season and that's ultimately what happens with the successful touts, or even guys that post for free to a certain extent, like at bet bash. 

46:13
I ran into poisson sports and it was the first time I met him in person. Like I had genuinely forgotten about him because, you know, years ago I encouraged him to post on betting talk. He had one of the best college basketball seasons of all time. Um started working with me, started working with some other people, privately, stopped posting, and that's just a perfect example of what happens to the guys that do have the deeper understanding. They pretty much get scooped up by you know a group or just start betting on their own at scale, and the guys that don't and just continue to sell forever. It's like the biggest tell and biggest red flag of all time. 

46:50 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
And from knowing, from knowing, from knowing pips myself and working with him so close, and we did the show where he gave out a picture free. The pics were given out at books that were widely available to like a very large number of people. Oftentimes, very often, I would say, they were given out at at prices that were available in multiple spots. If it wasn't available in multiple spots then we wouldn't even track the best price available as the official record tracking. So if you were doing your own work and doing what you should be doing and maximizing your outs, you were getting better prices than what was given out on the show. I imagine he was always very fair to people, so I imagine he was doing the same in selling. 

47:29
But from knowing him, he's probably making a lot more money betting now than he was from, uh, from selling picks, and I guess it's a little bit more difficult when you're trying to find outs. Living in croatia, where sports betting is not uh, you're not able to bet as effectively there. But, yeah, I think there is a right way to sell picks. But you know, as you said, you get. If you get picked up by group, you're just successful. You can make more money in doing that. So it seems like that's what he's doing right now. Again, just for my thoughts on it, I don't believe Steve Fezzik thinks he's selling a bad product. I think he does believe he's selling a good product. So I disagree with there was flop. I do believe that most of the people in this space believe they're providing good value. I think a lot of times just ignorance is bliss. They don't track themselves. They just don't know they're actually losing the money and they don't want to know they're losing the money. 

48:18 - Flup (Host)
To be honest, they just, they just don't want to be bothered in tracking and they're just there for the vibes and people eat it up and I, and hopefully we- can I heard steve talk about so many times like like I don't lose in NFL, like no one could lose over this big of a sample and he's down 76 units over a decent sample. It's like why is he the exception? Like he's got to know deep down that he's not. 

48:51 - Storm (Host)
Well, every time he shifts the goalposts, it just shows you more that he obviously doesn't believe that he's providing value. He's just changing the narrative to continue making more sales. 

48:56 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So so, storm, you also think that he kind of knows what he's doing here? 

49:00 - Storm (Host)
Yeah, I admittedly I muted Fezzik like Fezzik, years ago and his account, just because it comes up so often, so I'm not super up to date on the latest with him. But, as chris said, you know he's what's the thing he loves to uh talk about all the time that he's an actuary, same as somebody else we know is an actuary. Yeah, he's pretty smart to do it when you're an actuary and you do shitty things like you're knowingly doing those things most of the time. 

49:32 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Interesting. Just in the comments down below, leave your opinion. Do you feel like the majority of pig sellers are aware that they're not providing a valuable service at least to our opinion they're not providing a valuable service or do you think that they actually believe they're providing something of substance to the space and are bettering the space Again? Get in the comments down below on that one. But we can shift into our next topic. This comes from MoneyBagYo at GetToTheWindow, and this wasn't the only user who brought this up. I'll put this delicately and I'll say there were some rumblings about this before it was made public on Twitter, but it says we really need to talk about the downfall of NBA Green Beans, who is also a pig seller in this space, keeping with that theme, self-excluded himself from Novig and is now shilling some shit coin, al Mefio what a fucking loser. So I think. And also the hashtag Circle Back, which is great. If you ever want to get involved in the conversation and alert something, use that hashtag Circle Back and something may feature on the show. So on this conversation here. 

50:31
The tweet got deleted, but I believe Brett Fine saw it at NBA Green Beans showcased himself taking his money out of Novig and putting it into a shit coin, as mentioned here, by at get to the window, and again there were some rumblings that he had self excluded himself. 

50:49
And then there was a screenshot of his Novig account where there had been no activity recently and he had self-excluded himself. Now, before we dig further into this conversation, I don't think any of us here have much sympathy for NBA free meets. However, I do want to point out from a self-exclusion standpoint if you feel like you are, it is a problem with the way you're betting and you feel like self-exclusion is the best course of action, I commend somebody for doing that and even maybe suffering through a little bit of this embarrassment, but for somebody who talks the way he does and has been such a problem, I would love to hear the thoughts of everyone here. I will start with Flop again, though, because there is, let's say, I think you have more of a reason to have a vendetta against him than anybody else sitting here right now. 

51:34 - Flup (Host)
That is a fair statement. But in all seriousness, I want to echo what you said. I think it's very good. 

51:40 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
If it's true, I don't know, I can't know for certain, it is the reports that are coming out. 

51:45 - Flup (Host)
Yes, I don't want to say it is true or it isn't true. Only he can confirm. I saw him posted to uh, someone sent me a thing or he posted a ticket, so it's tough to say. If it is true, I commend yourself for being responsible. That's good. It's difficult to win on exchange with adverse selection and you know you, sometimes you learn the hard way and it's good to take that step. And if it's, if it's not true, it's not something funny to joke about. I don't think people, unless the reports. I don't know what the information they have or who their sources are, unless they're very confident and 100 percent. This is not something you should joke about, because I don't think you should be joking about self-excluding from someone, because it's a very serious thing. I've met people before that problem real problem gambling and they should be self-excluding. It's a very useful tool and they should take advantage of it. So yeah, that's really all I'll say. Don't want to start any new beef. 

52:47 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Can you echo any of the I guess some of the sympathies that are shared there? 

53:00 - Joey Knish (Host)
No, uh, do you echo any of the I guess some of the sympathies that are shared there? No, uh, I was in a uh, I jumped in a nadu space this week. Uh, and the I don't know they do is just chatting it up. I might have thrown this out just in the space as a little bit of, like, you know, molotov cocktail, just to throw it out. Green bean actually jumped in, uh, shockingly, not very long after, and when he, I know for his back, he denied everything, he said no, he did not self-exclude. He likes, uh, this coin I don't even know, remember the name of it, um, but for his sake, but, um, listen, it is what it is. And if, if that's actually the case, then you know what I'm going to. I'm going to enjoy the, enjoy the ride from the outside looking at it. So how? 

53:40 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
about you Storm, what are your? 

53:40 - Storm (Host)
thoughts on this. Let me consult the internal legal guidelines for Circlebackdocx that Rob told me earlier. Yeah, so obviously commend somebody for doing the self-exclusion, but you throw all that goodwill out the window. The second that you know presumably you did it to go and put all your money into a shit coin that everybody, I believe, got rugged on. So yeah, again, like Chris said, I don't want to start new beef here. Just one thing that I had noticed over the past few months, since like initially coming across Brett on the spaces and stuff, was that if you go back through his timeline you'll see that the size of the wagers he was posting was, uh, pretty steadily decreasing over time, which, um, you know, most of us who have been around for a while know that that means you know somebody's losing their edge, or you know they're losing their ass and constantly, you know, decreasing their bet sizing. It's probably not a good thing. So you know, if he did recognize that he was losing his edge, it's a good thing that he self excluded if he did. 

54:50 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I'm trying, I was trying to find a good metaphor for this, but I can't really come up with one where I commend him for going through this and self-excluding. He does feel as though he has a problem, but at the same time, the kind of character that he portrays himself as online, as a originator. I believe it still says originator in his Twitter bio. No, that's been gone for a minute. 

55:07 - Joey Knish (Host)
No, that's been gone for a minute. 

55:09 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Okay, well, for somebody who had previously proclaimed themselves an originator, who has tried to stack themselves up against some of the best bettors in the space, I do find a little bit of humor in the fact that he has suffixed it. But I think I can feel that way, while also thinking that, okay, it is a great step for you to take because you knew there was going to be this embarrassment doing, you knew you were going to get clowned on for doing it, but, uh, you know to go through that and suffix, I think is great. And I realize, uh, the contradiction is what I'm saying here, because it's like well, like, oh, people are not going to want to self-exclude now because of how people are going to react to them. But I, in a way, I truly believe he has brought it a little bit on himself with the way he has acted towards other people and in particular you, fluff. I'm surprised you feel this way. 

55:55 - Flup (Host)
But go ahead With the Novick thing, like if he comes into the Novick arena, you've got real killers here. There's someone you know yeah, someone in this panel up substantial amounts. That you know if you're going up, there's someone on the other side, and that you know, if you're going up, there's someone on the other side and you're not as good as me. So I mean, I'm just saying like there's a reason why you probably lost to Novik and who's the real big dog. So that's just all I'll say on Fluff's tweet. 

56:20 - Storm (Host)
I will add in one thing it kind of circles back to you know the reaction to Fluff's tweet is and I can say this myself too even knish as well. Like I would say, the three of us could be considered lightning rods on gambling twitter. You know, we're very opinionated, we're very outspoken. Brett would be in the same category for different reasons than most of us. So the second anybody slips up or any of us make a mistake or anything goes wrong, yep, everybody is there to attack. 

56:51 - Joey Knish (Host)
So I I can sympathize with that and I I like you know to echo what fluff's saying um, and you'll feel this like, especially when you're younger and first starting out, like if you're beating hard rock or you're beating you know props at some of the league. Then you step into the fucking you know exchange arena and you want to go head to head with some of the biggest people on the calcies, on the no vigs. That's a different level and you may think, like, have that fallacy that like, oh, I'm, I've been winning for years doing this. Now a couple years doing this, I'm on my pick, it looks great. And then you want to go toe to toe with some of, like, the real deal people at the highest level. That's a very different game and that that can be a rude awakening. 

57:30 - Flup (Host)
And I want to say I'm not even saying I'm like the top dog or anything like that, but it's very scary when I post an order on on like a Novig or a Cal sheet, and it gets filled. It gets completely filled. You know, oh shit, someone knows something that I don't and that's an adverse selection comes out to get you. So it can be quite scary and you got to be very, very cautious with how you use these exchanges. They're a great product. I love CalSheet, I love Novig. I strongly recommend everyone use it and CalSheet is great, especially when you're doing non-sports things. But just if you don't know what adverse selection is, read it up please. You know what. 

58:08 - Joey Knish (Host)
Just to echo this, like we'll go with. 

58:12
You know, when Brett did that poker stream and you know he I remember hearing some feedback that like, oh, he saw, you know I got a little unlucky in a few situations or that. 

58:22
And then you hear a guy like Fluff go through the and Storm both guys who've been playing poker and like for a long, long time go through the past hand history even for me I haven't been in the poker scene and they're able to then retroactively and reverse engineer how you played and why you didn't win and why you're not a winning player. That's the next level. That's not like I'm sitting there playing with my friends and that there's a reason you're going into these games and losing money against real deal people and it's not luck, it's because, like you, you may not see it, but there's just a different level of what people are doing to counteract, like your, your skillset, and you're just not on up to that level. You might get there, but right now it can be a real be a real tough thing when you start going against real deal people that have been in it for a long time. 

59:16 - Storm (Host)
Yeah, I'm glad you said that there was a term we said Porgata back in the day. Everybody would just say, you know, it's JBL, it's just bad luck. And that's something that a lot of losing players would say like, oh, it's just bad luck, say like, oh, it's just bad luck, that's why I'm losing. And you see that a lot with people that are, you know, green, um, people that are new to gambling and you know brett is definitely uh, qualifies as somebody saying, oh, it's not my fault, I was unlucky, or you know, instead of taking a step back and realizing you know you're probably outmatched, whether it's in betting or poker or whatever else, you're doing all right, speaking of some of the big dogs in the space, let's talk about GRP wins, because you guys wanted to further discuss the stiffing of the Circa survivor entry that took place over the course of that bash. 

01:00:04 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So the conversation started, or reignited, I guess, with Barry Levi who said at it's at pirate. Barry said it's official, I got a hat At Jeff Benson at Circa. Where's GRP wins? Still time to join us referencing the hat that you do get for signing up for the Circa Survivor. George said there's no chance I'll be in the millionth contest or the 10% chance. I'll be flying to Vegas within the next two weeks to get five entries in Survivor. 

01:00:29
Now a little bit of the backstory on this, in case you missed the Tuesday show. George got a room comp at Circa. He did have a seminar at Circa, but he had a room comp. He had a dinner with Jeff Benson, which George did pay for, but I think there was a limo service that was provided to GRP as well and I think it was under the impression from Jeff Benson ofenson of circa that grp was going to make an entry into the survivor. But uh, george got cold feet right at the end and decided he wasn't going to be making that entry. 

01:00:59
So jeff benson replied to this tweet from george said to the better chance of kelly and vegas, taylor, mathis, amanda vance or any of the bet bash atmosphere models showing up in matching outfits and knocking on the door of your sweet mom's house and asking for young Riley, then that actually happening, I'll believe it when I see it. So I mean, only only Benson himself could comment on if he's actually like mad about how this happened. He's at least playing that part online, but I really I really do love the way this is all unfolding here. Storm, you're interested in talking about this as well. Give us your take. 

01:01:33 - Storm (Host)
I think Benson has a future in Twitter spaces. He seems to be pretty good at stirring up manufactured drama. I will say, George, I stand in solidarity with you. We did not sign up for any contest this year because by week three or four we usually forget to submit the picks. And then one year our proxy was texting snow and it was for the nfl picks, and snow sent five college football teams and the guy just flipped out on him and was like you're a troll um, so that was the end of our uh contest participation, unless there was, you know, some tweet or written agreement or something. 

01:02:11
I don't think it's that big of a deal. I I just I think grp is has become self-aware at some point too. Um, I think it, you know, sometime in the last six months, like something clicked in his head where he leans into his character at this point and this is just like another way of, you know, generating more attention towards himself. So I think it's a good play by him. But I agree with Benson there's no shot that you know he's spending money to fly back to Vegas. 

01:02:40 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
He can go back after already having been there. 

01:02:43 - Storm (Host)
Yeah, yeah, when he seemingly makes such a big deal about money and spending money on things, there's no shot that's happening. 

01:02:52 - Joey Knish (Host)
As someone who was, you know, a neighbor for to george for uh, a few days. 

01:02:55 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
There was it, connecting rooms, like you had a room right next door. 

01:02:59 - Joey Knish (Host)
Uh, I wish I'm dead serious. I wish you would have let me know. I would have just for the bit for the content. I would have just paid for a survivor entry if I'd be like, let's, let's chop it if we win. But I mean same shot that I hit the powerball. But I would have just paid for a survivor entry and be like, let's, let's chop it if we win. I mean same shot that I hit the Powerball. But I would have just been like, george, let's go sign up, thousand dollar entry, call it. The GRP can issue no mega entry and get it here to get it. So if he does fly back out that I'll put that, put that offer on the table for him go ahead. 

01:03:28 - Flup (Host)
Flop. I gotta say the grp benson love hate relationship on gambling. Twitter is one of my favorite like ongoing stories and I think benson kind of deserves this because he deals with so much stupidity. I see all the comments. Oh my god, I'm begging for him like to get something like circa. Can I, can I get complaining about Circa? 

01:03:52 - Joey Knish (Host)
It's like a. Draftkings bet and someone's like why did they break this? Why did they break? 

01:03:57 - Flup (Host)
this. That doesn't even fucking work there and I mean deserves it in a good way, not a bad way. Just so we're clear, Because Benson gets to run off a lot of steam on George, just like unload. I find it hysterical. I love watching it and it's also funny watching benson just ratio george so hard every time each week. I'm always dying laughing. I love the relationship. I hope it continues. It's one of my favorite things. 

01:04:26 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Benson might really be the king of the the ratio he. 

01:04:29 - Flup (Host)
He picks his moments, but he barely misses most universally well-liked people on gambling twitter, like, the ratio of people that like him and don't like him has to be higher than anyone else I think it's just not just, but I think a big part of it is because he's he's always very poised, he never really loses his cool, like even in this. 

01:04:50 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
he never gets overly emotional. 

01:04:53 - Flup (Host)
I never lose my cool, or act emotionally, or acts off of like instinct. 

01:04:57 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
You would never do that. You would never act in the heat of the moment, would you? So, yeah, I love the bit as well. I do have to agree, grp. I find it unlikely he will be making any Survivor entries. 

01:05:08
But on the topic of Survivor, there is debates as to the popularity of survivor continent contest because survivor at last, at survivor at last, which is, to my understanding, a tool that helps you with your circus. Survivor entries says survivor hasn't hit the mainstream yet. Poker and fantasy took decades. Survivor is a better concept than those. There was a reply that says how is survivor a better concept? And the followup was survivor is a says how is Survivor a better concept, and the follow-up was Survivor is simple but intense. Everyone gets the premise. It's primal, no convoluting rules or scoring. The payoff is huge if you succeed and you get a full week to make the pick from the couch. $100 million Survivor poll where every household has entries is the dream. We are not biased Flop. I don't think you have much experience with uh survivors or anything like that, do you? But uh, do you happen to have anything for us on this one? 

01:05:56 - Flup (Host)
I might have a little. I do like survivor atlas. I have used the tool. I think it's very useful, but I disagree completely with his take here. Poker and fantasy have a big thing that survivor doesn't, which is you can do it multiple times. Survivor and you bust, you're out for the season and it's one pick. You know a week. Poker you can play poker every night. Fantasy you can play it every week regardless if you, if you win or lose and you know what. And fantasy, with basketball, it can be literally every day. Survivor can never have that. So in my opinion, can never reach those same heights I would think whoever figures out? 

01:06:29 - Joey Knish (Host)
I tweeted a little bit about this behind, like I hate the the proxy thing that you got to go through and then you got an improv. Whoever figures out that? I tweeted a little bit about this behind like I hate the proxy thing that you got to go through and then you got to the info. Whoever figures out, like the domestic national content, the legality. Captain Jack responded to one of my tweet. He had some more insight. 

01:06:42
I don't understand really what it's like, but like whoever can get a mat with you can get a massive pool, whether it be, you know, fan do, whether it be calci, that people can, you know, almost just like the power ball, where you can end up having a massive pool. Whether it be, you know, fanduel, whether it be Kelshi, that people can, you know, almost just like the Powerball, where you can end up having a survivor pool, that you can submit the picks online, you can enter it from anywhere. That's legalized gambling and that pot starts to get up to, you know, the the 50 million dollars, 100 million, then I think you'll have something that rivals. I agree with FLEP. You can't do it. You maybe you'll. You know you do it in some different fashions and that. But for a true NFL survivor pool to be that massive. I think it would have that type of like draw to it. It's just I don't the the logistics of how can that ever happen? Will that ever happen? I don't know. I think it would be massive though. 

01:07:31 - Storm (Host)
I just think the initial tweet is kind of wild. Like there are enormous survivor pools across the country obviously gray Market, black Market, whatever you want to call them, if you follow the news. Every year around the Super Bowl they like to make um bus on these pools, especially, you know for, in the New York, new Jersey area and you hear the size of some of these pools and it's staggering. So for somebody to say, oh, like it's never really reached the same amount of popularity, I would argue I know more people, at least in my friend group, who do pools, who don't really bet sports at all or who don't play poker at all. I think there is more of a broad appeal there than poker sports betting. 

01:08:16 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Um, I just think it's like a crazy tweet in general so I I do kind of agree with fluff and what he said, where it's like the, the thing that fantasy provides is that it provides the value over the course of the season, entertainment over the course of the season, where survivor you could be done immediately, it could be done right away and you could be done like two, three weeks. So I kind of agreed. That's where it will have its flaws. But, uh, interested, that storm. You have kind of the, the alternate take where you think like survivor is becoming a lot more popular already than than some other things there. 

01:08:46 - Flup (Host)
Um, as usual, I provide the correct take, storm provides the wrong take. I mean, that's just you, just standard operating procedure. 

01:08:54 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Well, I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions, comments down below on this one. Then what is the more popular part of betting? We'll say Is it survivor pools? Is it fantasy? Is it poker? Give your thoughts and opinions over there. 

01:09:05
Hey everyone, jacob Grimenya here, lead producer at the Hammer and your host of Circle Back. Do you want to know the best way to support what we're building here? Check out our sponsors. Seriously, we are selective with who we work with. We only want to team up with brands who offer actual value to bettors. We're not shilling junk. No miracle picks and no knee brace endorsements Just yet. If you enjoy the show and want to help us keep growing, then check out the links that are in the description and see what we've got lined up for you. Every visit helps, especially when I have to upgrade Kanisha's mic setup for the 10th time this month. I'll put it that way. 

01:09:39
We've talked a lot about Vegas and Circa and casinos. Well, let's go across the street I think it is to Golden Gate, where things are changing. At, vital Vegas reports that holy shit, golden Gate is removing all of its live table games. We are never speechless and by never we mean except for right now, and post a screenshot that says update. We received this statement from Circa Hospitality Group. Big changes are coming to the Golden Gate. We couldn't be more excited. As the oldest hotel in Las Vegas, we've always embraced the future and now we're remaining. We are reimagining our casino floor with high energy, electronic table games, pit, uh, a pit, unlike anything downtown has seen, except more excitement, faster game played, all the newest machines, all of our table games. Team members the golden gate are being offered roles at circa or the D or the opportunity to explore new departments within the company. 

01:10:31
Jaw meat dropped. This is a crazy conversation here. I do want to first of all preface this by saying I commend them for finding jobs for all the people who did lose their jobs on the casino floor. I thought that was great because that was actually one of my first thoughts in actually reading this, because I thought it'd just be a cost-cutting maneuver. But, uh, can it just go to you first on this one? Uh, I know you frequent casinos, for you know more so the sports betting, the kiosk. But in seeing this, what's your reaction? 

01:11:02 - Joey Knish (Host)
yeah, actually I walked over to the golden gate just because you know, when we were staying at circuit was across the street just to kind of check out like what the scene was. I, I mean they, I know they put some money into it when Stevens bought it, but my guess is that they're just trying something. I know the D's got a little bit more. It's a newer hotel, it was a new build circles. I obviously got a reputation. My guess is Golden Gate probably the businesses you know not exactly a booming over there at the moment and they're going to try something new. 

01:11:27
Um, the comp that I thought of originally was like when amazon went to those employee list stores and it was like, oh, you're just gonna be able to walk on, grab your groceries, walk out, and then nobody actually went to them. So now they close most of them because, like people don't want to do that. That to me is like I think some of the allure of a gaming floor is like to be able to like have a blackjack dealer, have a crap stable going. So when you go, fully automated kind of feels more like an arcade scene than a land scene. I I don't blame them for trying it, because I don't think. As I said, I don't think that you know, golden gate was just popping off right now. It's not one of you know, when you think circa hospitality group, you don't really think like I'm gonna go stay at the golden gate, so worth a shot. Um, do I think it works out in the end? My opinion no, but uh, I guess it'll be interesting to see what do you think of this one storm? 

01:12:16 - Storm (Host)
it's kind of wild to me because if I'm going downtown I'm not looking to embrace the future. I want like old, I want like grimy outside of cirque. Obviously, like you know, people go there for the events and stuff and that you know it's built recently. But I don't see how an old school casino embracing the future really works as a long-term plan, Like, okay, you're probably just going to shut down in a year when nobody goes there. I think you should be leaning into what makes downtown attractive to people you know, know being affordable. Having like that old school charm. It just doesn't really make that much sense to me. What about you flop? 

01:13:00 - Flup (Host)
um, I see like condition and storms points, but I think so much of their revenue or and sorry, when I say there I mean vegas and casino revenue in general comes from like slots and because people like it, it's easy to use and you don't have to pay a dealer, it's cheap I think this is actually a good idea in terms of, like, pure profitability. I I think this is a very calculated decision. These companies are very smart. I think it's going to work out for them. I could be wrong. I mean, I'm not an expert. I would. I would actually, in this situation, default to someone like storm or kinesha, have a bit more experience on this than me, but that's just my instinct I. 

01:13:42 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I just it just screams to me again the conversation of like vegas is dying. Like I mean, just from being being at circuit was great for bet Bash, but like I can only imagine Bet Bash wasn't going on, like it felt a little bit empty at times in there. I know it's not like maybe the busy season and I understand that, but like even going on Fremont Street and seeing how empty that was at times during the day and again I know I know it's not the busy season and all. But again like I keep going back to this with Vegas where, like, like the, the casino, the slots, the table games, that is, the, the cash cow, that is how you are making money. All you need to do is get people in the door and keep them there, and you do that with better rates on hotel rooms, better prices on drinks and on food, and it just felt like like you know you're going to get price gouge on the casino floor, but you didn't feel like you were going to deal with that when you're trying to eat or drink and that's what's going to keep you at the hotel. So I don't know, maybe this is an attempt to try and forego changing that and this is a cost cutting maneuver it's going to. We'll see if it helps them. I don't really have a strong take on whether or not it will help them, but we talked about on Tuesday like, surely we have to go in the opposite direction, where Vegas has to become cheaper to just be there because they are going to make money on the casino floor. They just need people to actually show up. So, uh, interesting conversation. Would love to hear more thoughts from everybody. 

01:15:02
Uh, in the comments down below, last full-scale topic before the chopping block, uh, we have this one from DK, double underscore DFS. We talk about a lot on this channel because DK tends to go at a lot of the what we would maybe consider posers in this space, people who are not selling valuable information, valuable picks, to their, their customers. And we have piccolo picks here who posted if a capper posts a 20 plus home run play in their 20 plus home run plays in their discord, they don't know what they're doing. You can win one play out of 20 by yourself. So such a telling deal. You don't need to pay for someone's picks or go into someone's discord for 20 home run plays because you can just hit one out of 20 yourself by luck. 

01:15:42
Dk points out here. My brother in christ, you posted exactly 20 a few days ago and it's a home run list. It is a list of 20 players. Uh, for home run bets over the course of day. Now it's important to remember it is a home run list, not home run bets. It is a list. 

01:16:01
As pointed out by piccolo you didn't read my post. A home run list is data. Stop being dense. And then I feel dk double square dfs points out very correctly that there is no list. A list is just a complete free rule and I'm paraphrasing here but a list is a free rule. You can post a list to people, a list of potential bets. If one of those bets win, you go oh, I put it in the list, all you had to deal with. Tail that bet from the list. But if all the bets lose, it doesn't matter because it wasn't actually a bet, it was just a list of information. It's a valuable service provided. It's a list of valuable information that you can choose what to do with. But I think we have a better understanding on this panel here. It is just a way to free roll themselves. Kanisha, I feel like you've been like the most anti-pick seller person we've had with this Friday show, so why don't you lead us off on this one? 

01:16:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean, yeah, as I I don't have too much on this other than this is just the classic like free roll, like, oh, it's just data, like when people, you know, do it, they're like I'm just giving data projections and it's like, even though I'm giving like picks inside those projections, it's like, oh, just, you know, you know a funny, you know nice tool for people to use, but then, if well, those hit, or you have, you know, oh, I hit 8 of 20 last night. You know you know he'd be out there just lathering it up with like, oh, our home run projections the other day, you know, plus 32 units if you played them all. I didn't tell you to play them all, but you could play them all. So I mean, yeah, this is uh, you know I've changed my tune on DKDFS over the after. He did. I forget what I told him for a while ago when it was something Mikael Bridges. Yeah, you always remember that. I never remember that. But yeah, that was it. 

01:17:44
But yeah, he's doing the Lord's work here and again and again. Yeah, just one of those chicks of that you know, typical toutish tactics. 

01:17:52 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
So just so everyone has the context, on DK, a double for DFS. Kirk had a big beef with him over the Mikael Bridges thing. So essentially it was late season, Mikael Bridges was going, Mikael Bridges, a good player, was going to rest the game. But because Mikael Bridges has a very long Ironman streak, it was presumed by a lot of sports bettors that he was going to play a very small amount of minutes. So people were mashing unders until DK DFS pointed it out to his followers that hey, you should probably bet McKellip is unders and killed the edge. Anyways, long time ago, people have come around, including Kirk, including condition, but let's go to you storm. What are your thoughts on this one? 

01:18:30 - Storm (Host)
Info. Touts are the absolute nut low. It's the ultimate free roll. You're just, you know, giving yourself built-in plausible deniability. Oh, I didn't sell picks, I didn't cost anybody money. Well, your service costs money. First of all, most of the time it's useless. This is not new to sports betting, but fairly new. 

01:18:52
It really took off with the dfs touts back in the day and, like you, before all these home run props and things became, you know, the hot thing for all these guys. So it was really the dfs touts like oh, look at this lineup. I gave four out of five of these guys tonight and it gets into. I love that. They were talking about the guy who said to water down the parlay is like you're taking credit for hitting, you know, three out of five legs on a parlay. That's just insane to me and I I obviously agree with everything that dk said. 

01:19:29
I it's one of those arguments that happens all the time and you know, one of Circleback's biggest podcast competitors was arguing on the timeline the other day about oh well, you know, we just sold tools or we just sold information, and I didn't get too deep into reading all of the tweets, but again, it's just like one of those things of like shifting the goal posts and trying to pass off the blame or not taking accountability for something and it it is like you said. I love that you said free roll. It is the ultimate free roll for accountability. When you're talking about selling information versus selling plays, same thing and anything for you on this one flat before we get to the chopping block. 

01:20:08 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Same thing. Anything from you on this one Fletch before we get to the chopping block. 

01:20:12 - Flup (Host)
Honestly, I think Storm and Kanish covered it quite well. Dk's doing great work. It's always funny to see hypocrisy out there and I'll stand by the thing. I think this person knows deep down what he's doing is not right. 

01:20:25 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
In this case, I agree with you. This person understands what they're doing. 

01:20:31
They understand, it's a free roll okay, all right, but I guess we still disagree on steve fessick a little bit, but we'll see. We'll see. Hey, if he's aware he's playing the bit very well, he plays it extremely well. He's a very good actor in that sense. Uh, the last, uh, the last topic, or the last set of topics, come to the chopping block. 

01:20:51
Now I said at the start of the show we've gone a little bit longer than normal today because it was loaded with potential topics and some of the stuff in the chopping block could have very easily been full-scale segments. This one could have been as well, because everyone on the panel was very interested in talking about this. This one comes from BarryHorse, underscore 29, very well-known in the space for sports betting. Very well known in the space for sports betting, very well known for just very well known in the space and, I'd say, mostly respected in the space as well. Says here my North Star in life is rage baiting, efficient market hypothesizers, and it's a showcase of his record when it comes to positive CLV and when it comes to negative CLV. And just to note for people that are maybe not just looking at it, or if you're listening to audio form, not a very large sample size, which adds to the rage bait, because somebody did reply less than 100 bets, what the hell? And it was part of the rage bait. 

01:21:47
But the follow-up here is to be clear I don't expect this split to continue at all. If someone has never heard of CLV in their lives, they are unequivocally well-served to understand it and its importance To the people who are not year-zero noobs to betting I assume a majority of people following me are this. My opinion is that the dogmatic closed-mindedness of CLV Maxis cost them dozens of Bitcoins in lifetime opportunity cost. Not complaining leaves more for me of CLV maxis costing dozens of Bitcoins in lifetime opportunity cost. Not complaining leaves more for me. Because you claim that you are a top-down bettor most of the time. I feel like CLV is a very important aspect of what you look for in betting. 

01:22:25 - Flup (Host)
So when you see some of this, what are your opinions? I actually agree with Barry here. I think what he's saying makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, I am not smart enough and good enough. Better for CLV not to matter to me. It does matter to me and if you are smart enough, then the market isn't efficient because you're better than the market. But if you have to ask if it's important or not, odds are, it matters to you and CLV matters to you. I think Barry is right. I can't comment if Barry is actually better than the market. I don't know him well enough, but I think there are people there are crazy sickos out there where CLV really doesn't matter that much to them because they're just that much better than the market. 

01:23:07 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
And how about you on this one Storm? What sort of work are you doing? Are you doing top-down stuff? Are you doing top-down stuff? Are you originating stuff? What's your take on the CLV? 

01:23:14 - Storm (Host)
discussion Mostly moving. You know, I typically agree with you need CLV A lot of times with people you see that you're moving, for they're creating their own CLV, so it becomes a little bit less important. You kind of have to do a deeper dive into how things are going, especially if somebody's on a downswing and they're getting clv. That's every originator's favorite thing to point to. Oh well, I'm getting clv. A lot of times it's because they're creating it or we're creating it for getting their bets down for them. 

01:23:47
Um, as far as Barry, it's a funny discussion to see because when he first popped up on the scene, I was originating baseball at the time and most of us used to sit around all day waiting for him to play because the group that he was playing with created so much steam that there was almost value on the other side. Automatically every single time and there's a group chat with like four or five of us every day, like around 11 am, new, and every single day we're like all right, when's he gonna play? When's he gonna play? Watching the screen, waiting for them to move the line. So it's funny to see things going a different direction now. Um, but you know that that was five, six years ago at this point, so I'm sure his uh game has evolved. And how about you, kish? 

01:24:37 - Joey Knish (Host)
yeah, I just I'm, I'm assuming, but just like, if I'm looking at this, it's going to be football season, barry probably putting this out there to draw some you know eyes back to you know kind of what he's got going on. So I think this is very strategic. He's uh, I think he's a very calculated type. So, yeah, I think he pops up occasionally with some stuff and I think he was doing this just to draw some attention to what he's got going on. 

01:25:06 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
Flubb kind of echoed my sentiments on this one where it's just like I have to respect CLV because I'm not originating stuff, so I'm not strong enough for better to to not respect it. So, um, if you get to that level, I agree with it, but uh, I think flip covered it as best as I can on that one. Uh, speaking of being underqualified for a topic, I think this is one I have quite underqualified for. But I will intro and hopefully we can get some conversation out of it here. So this is a conversation that was brought up in an article by Adi Rajaprabhakaran. Hopefully I said that correctly. He says this morning DraftKings and FanDuel's most profitable product line is at risk. Calsheet just filed to list player props and spreads on a regulated exchange. It's everything for sports betting economics and the at CFTC has just 24 hours to do something about it. And the article says Cal State swipes at sports books as a profit engine with player props and spreads, because that's where the real money is made. We've talked about it. I think we talked about it last week on the live show. That's where the real money is made for recreational books like DraftKings and for FanDuel. 

01:26:11
And there were some, some more comments. There was some more comments on this one here. People enjoyed what the article had to say. It brought up some some different discussions. There was a tweet that came up from a golden pants 13, who's sorry, golden pants zero 13, who says I really liked the article I've been posted today. That being said, being a MM or being a MM on RFQ protocol for the type of SEPs that would be competitive with FanDuel and DK would be a worse job than a BetBash atmosphere of models. We'll talk about how difficult it would be to actually make the markets on these sorts of SEPs and stuff. Either the market makers will be pissed or the customers will be pissed here. So, storm, what were your thoughts on this one here, because I know you were interested in talking about this one. 

01:26:57 - Storm (Host)
I loved that tweet from Golden Pants because somebody's getting the shit end of the stick here and it's been discussed many, many times over the past three or four years. 

01:27:11
With the proliferation of same game parlays, how difficult they are to price, how difficult they are to book from a sports book point of view. 

01:27:20
So turning that over to market makers certainly makes for an interesting game. I didn't read the article, but something I found interesting was I had a meeting this morning with somebody you know, another player in the prediction market game, and one of the questions I asked them was okay, you know you, you know these prediction markets offer all these crazy markets, right? So I said you know, if you're going the same route as Kalshi and you know you're going to be CFTC governed, how does it work with offering those markets? How do you get clearance to offer those things? And his response shocked me and it was mentioned in the suite. He said you submit it to the CFTC and basically by default, they approve it and they have 24 hours to respond to say hey, we actually don't approve of this anymore. And I found that very interesting, that that's how they handle offering these markets. So again, like I said, brave new world out there when it comes to this exchange betting. 

01:28:24 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
What do you think, Kanish? 

01:28:25 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I'd say. The only thing I say is like, great for Calcio that they'll be able to offer to play a product. That's what the rub is, is like, I mean, because really for Fandle DraftKings and that it's the SGP, it's the SGP viability, it's not really like the player prop itself, it's combining it with all the other things. That's kind of driven the you know, the massive boom and the hold boom. How much of that are you going to be able to do? You know, on the exchange, I don't know. I guess it's one of those we'll see as storm saying new world. We'll see what happens. 

01:28:59 - Storm (Host)
Um, and smarter people than me you'll be, uh, you know, have to have takes on it or be putting this stuff together. We are the uh, we are the dinosaurs of sports. 

01:29:04 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
We need to uh, adapt or die and still in the same sort of lane here, ryan butler at butler bets says, says Robin hood will soon launch pro and college football prediction markets directly with the Robin hood app. Per hood release PMs will include all NFL NCAA power for conference regular season games. Launch comes days after Cal she announced its own expanded football PM offering. So again, I think a bit of the theme for this episode has been the expansion of these sorts of markets exchange markets and prediction markets, markets and all of that. So, kanish, being our college football representative here with the hammer, give us your take on this. 

01:29:46 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean more liquidity is never a bad thing. I don't know. You know, just in the general, like you know some kid out there going to be selling their you know whatever the 50 shares their dad got them of Apple stock to. You know, bet Louisiana State for the weekend. I don't know, it's a little interesting to see you know what Robin Hood getting into the game, but I never listen. I think new players getting into the market is is never a bad thing, because one more liquidity and two, even at what we started the show with, with the fluff thing where there can be I'll just say it this way there can be more angles to shoot. For you know a guy who likes to, likes to fire some bullets occasionally in that thing. So you know, there's usually a learning curve when a new operator comes to a market and there's usually some susceptibility. So the more entrance, the more I welcome it. 

01:30:41 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
And give your thoughts, Thor, before we move to our last topic. 

01:30:45 - Storm (Host)
Curve. Maybe one of you knows this. I think I saw some tweets saying that Robinhood is just Couchy, offering it through their platform and adding a higher commission. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but what Kanish said you know in general, celebrate having more retail flow in sports betting, whether it's prediction markets, traditional sports books, any other form of sports betting. You know retail flow is everything. That's how the professionals eat, so we're always going to be in favor of that. 

01:31:16 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
And the last topic here. I thought this was really interesting. Kirk Evans brought this up at Kirk Evans Zero, who's on the Tuesday show, says this might be a dumb question, but does your bet tracking for a significant portion of a game and then the bet losing have any significance to it being a good bet or not? I think this is a pretty prevailing thought, but I'm not sure it has any significance. So if your bet is trending really well for 80% of the game and then it loses late, is that indicative of you making a good bet or is it just? You have to understand that, like you have to understand the variant for the entire game. 

01:31:52 - Storm (Host)
What do you think storm? 

01:31:53
Understand that, like you have a variant for the entire game. What do you think, storm? Um, I kind of mentioned this earlier when we were talking about clv. You know if you have, if you're moving for somebody and they're creating their own clv, you kind of need to do a deeper analysis of their plays if they're losing, because their first defense is going to be oh I'm getting clv. My plays have to be good. 

01:32:10
And I've been asked this like how do you know when it's time to move on from somebody that you're moving plays for them? And something we'll start doing is we'll start tracking their bets throughout the games. I do think it's important. I do think it's significant. I've said it before. 

01:32:29
I don't have as much of a mathematical background as a lot of people. A lot of what I do is you know from experience and feel so. I absolutely agree that you know tracking bets throughout games, seeing you know how somebody is doing, like I'll message snow and if somebody's struggling and you know they have a big position on something and him and I like often message each other at the same exact time, this one's not even close right Like this guy's just been getting smoked lately. And then you start looking at his bets and you know early in the game they're getting destroyed and maybe they come within like a point or two of the spread by the end of the game and garbage time and the guys go. You know what? We only missed it by a point or two of the spread by the end of the game and garbage time and the guys go. You know what? 

01:33:18 - Joey Knish (Host)
we only missed it by a point or two, but that doesn't tell the whole story of the game. So I do think it is very important. How are you kish? Yeah, I think there is probably, uh, what I call you know, a massive quantitative answer to this, or maybe not even an answer, but you know a theories that you could go about ways of analyzing someone's you know origination portfolio or how they've tracked over a long period of time versus game flow or game state or those you know the in-game prediction models of who's going to win, and then back that out. So I'm sure there's big data ways to you know, get a crunch and process a bunch of that stuff. 

01:33:46
You know, from a layman's term, it would be like you know if someone ends up, you know if I go through a guy who's sending me. You know college basketball stuff and you know you look at their totals and maybe like eight went to overtime and you went one and seven or had you know oh and eight or something in those overtime games, over or under, depending on the variance. So then you know you would look at something as storm saying that, um, you know, probably you, you know the, the true ROI, the XRI, was going to be a little bit better than kind of what it ended up as, but I just in general I think there's probably people doing this at a very advanced level that I, that I can't even really like fully present in this manner or wrap my head around. It's one of those conversations you could probably have people in a room for days going on about like what's the, the perfect method or the true method to to track if something was a good bet through game state. 

01:34:43 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
I, I think it does matter, but I think it takes the right person to understand what. What does matter and what doesn't in this. But but I do think to a certain extent it does matter. Uh, your, your bet tracking for most of the, for a significant portion of the game, and then losing. I think that there is significance because, on the flip side of that. 

01:34:59 - Joey Knish (Host)
You can also when you're, if you put in too many things that don't really matter into your bets about why you lost or why you're running bad than that, then I think it can have an adverse effect as well. Um of you maybe convincing yourself or, you know, convincing a group that you actually should have been. You know this, but we're running at this, so it's uh, it's, it's jbl kinesh. 

01:35:24 - Jacob Gramenga (Host)
That's a great way to end it off, round it all off for today on circle back. Thank you so much, everybody, for tuning in to our show. Thank you so much to our sponsors calci. You so much to our sponsors Calchi. You can sign up with the Calchi with the link that is in the description. You could have done it throughout the entire stream, an entire video, but make sure you go to the link and sign up to Calchi. Check out all those unique markets with oftentimes a lot of liquidity in them. Thank you so much for watching.