[00:00] This is the like the second time within

[00:03] a few months where they they just had

[00:05] the the SGP thing on their like DK pick

[00:08] six thing where where it like screwed up

[00:10] and a bunch of people robbed the bank

[00:12] and now it's happening again. Like who

[00:14] is who is in the trading room? IF I'M

[00:17] I'M A SUIT I'M LIKE EVERYBODY'S OUT.

[00:20] >> DISCLAIMER: The content presented in

[00:22] this show is intended for entertainment

[00:24] purposes only. All opinions expressed

[00:26] are those of the host and do not

[00:27] necessarily reflect the views or

[00:29] opinions of any individuals or

[00:30] organizations mentioned. Statements made

[00:32] about public figures or entities are

[00:34] based on publicly available information

[00:36] and are not intended to harm or defame

[00:39] any person or business. This show relies

[00:41] on fair use of social media posts which

[00:43] are presented in good faith for the

[00:45] purpose of commentary and criticism.

[00:47] Viewers and listeners are advised to

[00:48] form their own opinions.

[00:57] Is bankroll management overrated? Is the

[01:00] best way to responsibly gamble just by

[01:03] betting more? And of course, we're going

[01:04] to be talking about the minus 10,000

[01:07] cash out disaster that occurred on

[01:09] DraftKings right here on Circle Back,

[01:12] currently circles off channel, which is

[01:14] part of the Hammerbag network and

[01:15] presented by Cal, the show, as you know,

[01:18] where we cover the latest and greatest

[01:19] news that comes from gambling Twitter.

[01:21] We're back with the Friday crew after a

[01:24] week off as you can see at circles off.

[01:26] We put some work into maybe some new

[01:29] graphics, some new designs that you see

[01:30] on screen, and also some new content

[01:32] coming soon, which we touched about a

[01:33] little bit later on. But we're here with

[01:35] the Friday crew, as I said, for today's

[01:37] show. My name is Jacob Grer. I am a

[01:39] creator and producer here at the Hammer

[01:41] Bag Network. Down in the bottom left, we

[01:43] have Pro Sports Better Mike aka Mr.

[01:45] Peanut Better. Down in the bottom right

[01:47] corner of the screen, we have the

[01:48] co-host on the Hit the Books YouTube

[01:50] channel, The Hammers College Football

[01:52] Content Division, Joey Kesh, and Porter

[01:54] of BA Analytics joining us as our fourth

[01:56] in the top right. Porter, how you doing

[01:58] today? Uh, like you said before we

[02:00] started recording here. It's been a

[02:01] while since we had you on, so good to

[02:02] have you back.

[02:03] >> Yep. Busy season with all the sports

[02:05] running. Things are slowing down just a

[02:07] little bit. Time to hit the social the

[02:09] media. And Kenesh, you're showing off uh

[02:12] the new studio. Work in progress, but uh

[02:15] good to have you in an actual chair, not

[02:16] in your kitchen.

[02:17] >> Work in progress. We've moved from the

[02:19] kitchen uh to the bedroom that's been

[02:21] allocated for uh the new uh the new home

[02:24] office. I still got a little work to do.

[02:26] We were discussing some I some very uh

[02:28] detailed IT specific uh pre-show in

[02:32] terms of how to set up a dual monitor uh

[02:34] which thankfully a family member will be

[02:36] taking care of. But uh yeah. Yeah, it's

[02:38] going good. look forward to. Uh I got to

[02:40] get a few other things going in here.

[02:42] But the problem is when you don't set up

[02:44] anything yourself, you have to wait on

[02:46] people to do it. So that that's the

[02:47] that's been the delay.

[02:48] >> Yeah. It's not like anyone any neural

[02:51] pro could ever figure out to plug in two

[02:52] monitors and set them side by side and

[02:55] go into the settings and and ensure that

[02:57] the dual monitor setup. No, it's

[02:58] impossible to do.

[02:59] >> As the boomer of the show, no, that is

[03:01] not uh it is not in my skill set. You

[03:04] know, I do find it incredible like the

[03:06] the the caliber of sports betterers that

[03:08] I've worked with in working on circles

[03:10] off and at the hammer. The like the

[03:12] ability they have to go to great lengths

[03:14] to be able to bet sports professionally

[03:16] and then like the most simple IT tasks

[03:19] are just impossible to them. It is it is

[03:22] truly astonishing and will never cease

[03:24] to amaze me. But uh regardless, everyone

[03:27] can make mistakes. even one of the

[03:29] biggest recreational sports book and

[03:31] their traders as we saw with the leadoff

[03:33] topic for today's show which is on this.

[03:37] So Eric Patterson at EPATGolf didn't

[03:41] really maybe quite understand what he

[03:43] had stumbled into here when he said show

[03:44] me a worse outright board you can't. It

[03:47] was the outright for the Cognizant

[03:48] Classic a PGA Tour event where every

[03:51] single golfer was listed at minus 10,000

[03:55] to be the winner. So maybe to an

[03:58] untrained person not super familiar with

[04:00] what's going on here, they're saying,

[04:01] "Okay, well, they're adjusting the

[04:02] odds." And maybe they are. But if you

[04:05] had already placed your wager prior to

[04:07] this, of course, minus 10,000 would

[04:09] potentially trigger a massive cash out.

[04:12] That is exactly what happened here. This

[04:15] made very large rounds as quick as it

[04:17] happened. This happened right before we

[04:20] went live on Monday. Okay, so we weren't

[04:21] able to talk about it on Monday for

[04:23] Circle Back, but we saved it here for

[04:24] the Friday crew. So, a better $5 on

[04:28] Justin Hicks at plus 500,000 and was

[04:33] able to cash out for nearly 22 grand.

[04:36] Somebody had Brendan Todd plus $450,000.

[04:40] $5 wager cashed out for nearly $20,000.

[04:44] And I'm sure there were a lot more

[04:46] people who did this. Uh, I did hear of

[04:49] people who were able to do this and were

[04:51] able to get the money into their bank

[04:53] account as well. So, it wasn't as if

[04:55] they weren't able to pull this money out

[04:56] if they did it quick enough. Uh, Eric

[04:58] Patterson added that DK got cooked on

[05:00] cash just by putting everyone at minus

[05:02] 10,000 while adjusting odds. And our old

[05:05] friend Bo L Wagner Bo knows says DK

[05:08] cooked my account over four years ago on

[05:10] a legitimate bet. These accounts will

[05:12] never see the light of day again. But

[05:14] for someone making, you know, small

[05:16] wagers, outright golf bets, $20,000 is

[05:20] worth a lot more than having that

[05:21] account. So, of course, you should be

[05:23] comfortable losing that account. But

[05:25] let's get into like just maybe exactly

[05:28] what happened here. Let's start off with

[05:29] you, Kenish. Do you have any idea how

[05:32] how does something like this happen? The

[05:34] funny part, this is the like the second

[05:37] time within a few months where they they

[05:39] just had the the SGP thing on their like

[05:42] DK pick six thing where where it like

[05:45] screwed up and a bunch of people robbed

[05:46] the bank and now it's happening again.

[05:49] Like who is who is in the trading room?

[05:51] Like if I if I'M A I'M A SUIT I'M LIKE

[05:55] EVERYBODY'S OUT LIKE HOW DOES this

[05:57] happen? And it's not only happening,

[06:00] people are like, it happens a few months

[06:03] ago and now it's almost like people have

[06:06] got the oh, as soon as this happens, I

[06:08] got to pull the money out. So, you're

[06:09] getting a bunch of WITHDRAWALS

[06:10] PROCESSING. I DON'T KNOW WHAT the

[06:12] oversight process is here, but it's also

[06:15] the fact that you've got these, you

[06:17] know, very recreational bettors. I know

[06:20] in one of our uh group chats, uh, a

[06:23] friend of the pizza man was talking

[06:24] about like, you know, the guys have a

[06:26] lifetime loser account. He's a 510 $20

[06:28] better. This happened. He was able to

[06:30] pull it out and now he's a win. Now he's

[06:32] up. So your whole like P&L on this guy

[06:34] is all screwed up. Um and and so I I

[06:38] don't know. It's it's happened a number

[06:40] of times. And you know what? If you got

[06:41] it and you were able to get the money

[06:43] out, good for you. I don't I I'm not

[06:46] sure how this uh this is like now a

[06:50] redundant occurrence uh at DraftKings uh

[06:54] again. So yeah, a rough one for old DK,

[06:57] but hey, if you were able to get it in

[06:58] out of there and I agree, like the whole

[07:00] Bo Wagner like, oh, you cooked your

[07:02] account, if you've got a 500 to1 that's

[07:05] paying out on a $5 bet, like you're not

[07:07] caring about the account. You're taking

[07:08] the money and boom, you're out of there.

[07:09] >> You can find a new DraftKings account.

[07:11] >> Yes. Uh you you'll you'll be okay. You

[07:13] can take that payout. Uh Mike, you've

[07:15] got experience in trading, so maybe give

[07:18] us a bit of insight into how how

[07:20] something like this could possibly

[07:21] happen. uh you're talking to someone who

[07:23] once put up a college or college

[07:25] basketball second half line without

[07:27] first inputting the score from the first

[07:28] half. So if you run the sim then and put

[07:30] it up I'll let you know that it tends to

[07:32] come in a little bit lower um than if

[07:34] you actually enter the points in. So I

[07:36] think this goes back to so if you're DK

[07:39] and you are kind of building your

[07:42] product to be playing all these lotto

[07:44] type games you're adding in SGPs all

[07:47] these very complicated things you're

[07:49] just creating more areas for your stuff

[07:51] to break. So DK has like everybody wants

[07:54] to create new markets and everybody

[07:56] wants to add all these features and now

[07:58] you can have SGP here. We want everybody

[08:00] to be cash out all the time. And yes,

[08:03] those are like, you know, overall like

[08:06] they're not going to be offering plus EV

[08:08] spots for these people. They're going to

[08:10] be raking in uh fees and kind of

[08:12] tricking people and things, but you

[08:15] really when you're like testing it out

[08:16] and seeing how, okay, how will this go?

[08:18] How much will this make us, etc. I think

[08:21] that you probably lose out the

[08:22] complexity of there's just more things

[08:25] to break now than there ever has been.

[08:28] And especially for DK, if you think

[08:30] about I would guess that mistakes like

[08:32] this happen at other books as well, but

[08:34] you just don't have everybody vulturing

[08:37] them, you know, checking all the time

[08:39] like they are on DK. So like if

[08:40] something like this happens at Bet

[08:42] Rivers, like the three people that are

[08:43] at betting at Bet Rivers are going to

[08:45] get a significant payout. I It's just

[08:47] much different when you're kind of the

[08:49] top dog as DK is, and as they keep

[08:51] adding these things, it just leaves more

[08:53] and more spots to break.

[08:54] >> All right, we'll go over to you, Porter.

[08:56] Uh surely some jobs lost for something

[08:58] like this. What do you think?

[08:59] >> Yeah. Well, I would say the real problem

[09:01] is all the jobs lost before this

[09:03] happened. So, you know, when a company

[09:05] like DK is just endlessly making cuts or

[09:09] >> you know, you know, peanut butter here's

[09:11] a former trader, not a current trader,

[09:13] all the real traders eventually they

[09:15] leave. They're not paid enough there.

[09:17] This is what happens when you're

[09:19] competing against people that are either

[09:21] underqualified, underpaid, don't care as

[09:23] much, don't have incentive. So, it's

[09:25] just natural that you're going to see

[09:26] these kind of events occur over time,

[09:29] especially like, you know, when you're

[09:30] offering tons and tons of markets with

[09:32] tons and tons of people trying to

[09:34] attack. And then this is a lesson for

[09:36] everyone. I think that maybe back in the

[09:39] earlier days, you would keep your money

[09:41] on the account in these spots thinking

[09:43] things would be okay. But I would

[09:44] definitely say today it's like you got

[09:46] to be snap getting the money out of

[09:48] there, doing everything you can. It's

[09:50] not just enough to win or recognize the

[09:52] situation. At the end of the day, you

[09:54] can win the bet, but if the bet doesn't

[09:55] hit your bank account, you didn't you

[09:58] didn't do anything.

[09:59] >> So, for anyone wondering, um, if you do,

[10:01] let's say you were one of the people who

[10:03] were able to cash this out, you have a

[10:05] huge balance and you were able to

[10:06] withdraw that immediately. DraftKings

[10:08] would likely put a negative balance into

[10:10] your account. All you got to do is just

[10:12] not deposit there ever again. But

[10:16] spots like draft canes and other

[10:17] recreational spots like the top ones you

[10:19] want to really compete in the market.

[10:20] One of the selling points is often how

[10:22] quick the cash outs are or not the cash

[10:24] outs but the withdrawals are. So if

[10:26] you're able to withdraw your money it

[10:28] usually hits your bank account pretty

[10:29] quickly. And in an instance like this it

[10:32] kind of came back to hurt them because

[10:33] they weren't able to stop a lot of these

[10:35] from happening. Like I said I we have a

[10:38] like an example with Rob's friend and

[10:40] some other people I've seen online able

[10:41] to get this into their account. that

[10:43] account's over because you're gonna have

[10:44] the negative balance. And as Bose said,

[10:47] you know, DraftKings probably gonna let

[10:49] that account see the light of day again.

[10:51] But you've made such a win here that you

[10:53] know, people who are down lifetime are

[10:55] now up a lot lifetime with some of these

[10:58] wages. So, absolutely, that was the

[10:59] right call. But a good lesson like like

[11:02] we've said here where

[11:05] you've got to make sure that money gets

[11:06] into your account as quick as possible

[11:08] in situations like this. And people are

[11:09] already privy to that with DraftKings.

[11:11] So perhaps somebody was involved in both

[11:13] a was was able to figure out what they

[11:15] had to do in this situation. We'll get

[11:17] >> By the way, there's there's going to be

[11:18] haters in the comment by the way that

[11:20] are saying that we're all encouraging

[11:22] doing like unethical things. Get the

[11:23] money out. That's not your money. But

[11:25] let's I I welcome those comments down

[11:27] there.

[11:28] >> You guys become friends with the sports

[11:30] books.

[11:30] >> I'll make it clear. I'm encouraging you

[11:32] to be unethical and take your money out

[11:33] of the account before they can stop you.

[11:36] I I also think that guy who tweeted out

[11:38] the look at this leaderboard odd like

[11:41] what a like disgrace or whatever. It's a

[11:44] good example. If you see the probability

[11:46] of one thing messed up, even if you

[11:48] can't take advantage of it, start

[11:50] looking around. Like that means that

[11:51] somewhere in the sim something else is

[11:53] messed up and you want to like

[11:54] immediately start to check every market,

[11:56] things like that. So that's like a good

[11:58] if you think something's wrong, even if

[12:00] you can't bet that market, see how it

[12:01] affects other markets.

[12:03] >> Good point there as well. We're going to

[12:05] get moving with the show in just a

[12:06] moment here. Before we do, want to

[12:08] remind you guys, if you're new to the

[12:09] channel, make sure you're subscribed. We

[12:11] appreciate each and every one of you

[12:13] that watch this show, especially the

[12:14] people that watch the show every week.

[12:16] But there are people out there who are

[12:17] watching who aren't subscribed yet. I'll

[12:19] forgive you. We can call it an honest

[12:20] mistake, but do me a favor and subscribe

[12:23] right now as we push for 22,000

[12:25] subscribers here on Circles Off. The

[12:27] larger the channel grows, the more

[12:28] content we can provide to you. We have a

[12:30] lot of exciting stuff coming up for you

[12:32] in the very near future as well. you're

[12:33] going to want to keep an eye on and it's

[12:35] easy to do that by being subscribed to

[12:38] the channel. Second piece of content on

[12:40] the show today, question if it if it's

[12:42] an end of an era. Fight ghost posted a

[12:45] long tweet here talking about how

[12:47] bookmaker very popular uh uh sports book

[12:51] in the sharp betting community showcased

[12:53] that bookmaker was refusing some of

[12:56] their action. Now, bookmaker is one of

[12:57] those places that takes the sharp

[12:59] action, is able to shape the lines based

[13:01] off of that sharp action, which is why

[13:03] sharp betterers enjoy using such a

[13:05] product, but they messaged fight_host

[13:09] here. Thanks for holding. Your time is

[13:10] greatly valid customer service here. The

[13:12] decision was made recently to no longer

[13:15] offer lines mentioned to any customers

[13:17] who are not considered to be

[13:19] recreational players. I apologize, but

[13:21] this means that until further notice, we

[13:23] will no longer be able to offer these

[13:25] markets to you. So, I don't know if this

[13:27] is a specific market necessarily or if

[13:30] it's a shift for bookmaker, but Porter,

[13:33] um, I'm sure you've got experience with

[13:35] bookmaker. Do you have any thoughts on

[13:36] this?

[13:37] >> Yeah, I mean, you know, usually when you

[13:39] see these kind of events, it's like very

[13:42] shocking and you're like kind of in

[13:44] denial, hard to accept, especially when

[13:45] something's been going on as long as

[13:47] bookmakers been kind of taking decent

[13:50] volume on sharp action. But like on

[13:52] previous shows that have been on, you

[13:54] know, people will say pinnacle is sharp.

[13:56] But then like underneath their breaths

[13:57] on another episode, people like, "Oh,

[13:59] Pinnacle's changed. Things have

[14:00] changed." They don't take as much

[14:01] action. Numbers, you know, open up

[14:04] later. And you kind of see this leak

[14:06] across other

[14:09] sharpish books. This is just kind of the

[14:12] industry changing. And some things last

[14:14] a long time, some things don't last as

[14:16] long. Obviously, bookmakers been around

[14:18] taking sharper action for a bit of time

[14:21] and so it's a little bit harder to

[14:22] swallow when you see something

[14:24] longstanding change, but the end of the

[14:27] day, it's just another another curveball

[14:30] being thrown to the sharp better that

[14:32] does make the ecosystem worse. But

[14:34] you'll see balance, you know, like I'm

[14:36] not saying I don't know who Fight Ghost

[14:37] is, but imagine he leaves the industry.

[14:39] Well, that would make lines softer

[14:41] somewhere else. So, you do see eb and

[14:43] flow of things changing. When you see

[14:45] something that looks horrifically bad,

[14:46] you should sometimes take a step back

[14:48] and think, well, something positive

[14:50] eventually probably might come out of

[14:52] this because at the end of the day,

[14:53] sports betting's still been around now,

[14:55] I don't know, 50, 50, 60 years.

[14:58] Moneyline spread started. It's changed

[15:01] over time. That's all. This is a

[15:02] negative change again to the industry.

[15:04] But I do believe,

[15:07] you know, this is kind of showing a

[15:09] beginning of the end to some of the

[15:11] sharp books just willfully taking a

[15:14] little bit sharper action. And by the

[15:16] way, this should kind of alert you to,

[15:18] hey, why is this book taking my action

[15:20] still anymore moving forward cuz it, you

[15:22] know, starts here, but usually this will

[15:24] climb to larger and larger markets over

[15:26] time.

[15:27] >> I do have to appreciate the fact that

[15:29] they were just very open about the

[15:31] message at least, not being super

[15:32] ambiguous about it. But uh definitely if

[15:34] you've been using this for a while the

[15:35] way it was it'd be annoying to see that

[15:37] sort of change. Kesh uh we'll go to you

[15:39] next. What are your what's your take on

[15:41] this? So this a totally unvalidated

[15:45] theory I have on this specific would be

[15:48] that uh I know through like thirdand a

[15:52] little bit of fight ghost and then

[15:54] reading some of the comments it appears

[15:56] they did a little bit of a sweep on like

[16:00] combat sport boxing UFC my thought

[16:04] process here which could be totally

[16:06] unvalidated is they wanted to weed out

[16:09] some people who they thought had what

[16:12] we'll call inside information and

[16:14] certain fights. Um or just connections

[16:17] to to camps and that being ahead of

[16:19] moves. Um so I I know Fight Ghost is a

[16:22] guy who gets some whispers from certain

[16:24] places. There were some people in the

[16:25] comments talking about MMA. Um so I

[16:29] think that in combination where it's

[16:32] like okay we don't want to be involved

[16:35] in in information markets per se. We

[16:39] want to be involved in, you know, the

[16:41] bigger liquidity sports where people are

[16:43] trading, people are modeling in that,

[16:44] whether it be NFL and that. We don't

[16:46] want to be as much in sports where

[16:48] there's a lot more um, you know, rumors

[16:50] that fixes are in, information trades at

[16:53] a big premium. So, my thought would be

[16:56] that they are I don't know if that

[16:58] downsizing is the word, but wanting to

[17:01] get out of the the fight game sharp

[17:04] business. uh especially because I know

[17:06] some other offshores especially take

[17:08] significantly higher limits on like UFC

[17:10] and stuff and that. So probably just a

[17:13] business decision to say okay we're you

[17:15] know like how Pinnacles can you know

[17:18] rolled it back in a number of sports but

[17:20] soccer they're still in a lot of cases

[17:21] you know big your game day NFL and that

[17:24] probably just a business decision from

[17:25] bookmaker to say okay we don't want to

[17:27] be the sharp MMA or boxing book uh you

[17:31] know line setting book anymore we're

[17:33] going to kind of get out of that

[17:34] business

[17:35] >> over to you Mike how do you feel about

[17:37] this

[17:39] >> uh call me Kirk Evans because I'm about

[17:41] to send Pierre for the sports book. I

[17:43] think that book maker if you're talking

[17:46] about like these odd markets that nobody

[17:48] is betting into like at that aren't that

[17:51] efficient and you're not getting a ton

[17:52] of action on these. I don't mind books

[17:55] saying hey we still want to offer this.

[17:57] It's a good product for the

[17:58] recreationals. We want to keep that

[17:59] wreck money coming in. We want to be

[18:01] able to offer lines to wrecks but we

[18:03] also don't want to get just killed by

[18:05] the sharps in these specific markets.

[18:07] You see this bet online does something

[18:08] similar where they're like, "Hey, you

[18:10] know, you can take a little bit of

[18:11] props, but we're going to limit you on

[18:12] that." And then, you know, all the other

[18:14] weird markets that we put up, if you're

[18:16] any good at them, we're going to limit

[18:17] you hard. But when it comes to like

[18:19] major sports and stuff, we're going to

[18:20] go ahead and let you take your chunk. I

[18:22] don't There's like this binary

[18:24] positioning we do with books. Oh,

[18:26] they're a sharp book. Oh, they're a soft

[18:27] book. There should be room kind of in

[18:30] the middle for, hey, we want to offer

[18:32] this to keep Rex on our platform because

[18:34] in the end, you want Rex on their

[18:36] platform. if you want to be betting into

[18:37] these places, but they also need to, you

[18:39] know, weigh that verse uh offering

[18:42] markets to everybody at all times. So,

[18:44] if I'm just like looking at it

[18:46] objectively from bookmaker also maybe

[18:48] factors in somewhat that they have some

[18:50] US plays and prime sports book and

[18:52] stuff. If you're trying to get investing

[18:54] and funding, being able to say, "Hey, we

[18:56] offer all these markets that nobody

[18:58] actually bets on is probably good." You

[19:00] see this? I mean, books love to talk

[19:01] about how many markets I have that I

[19:03] mean, nobody bets into. It's honestly I

[19:05] think sometimes it's just having extra

[19:07] markets up to say that you have them up.

[19:09] Um but I think that bookmaker I'm not

[19:12] going to give them too hard of a time

[19:13] because I think this is pretty

[19:15] reasonable uh depending on what markets

[19:18] that they're taking away.

[19:20] >> All right, great insight there. Would

[19:22] love to see some of the comments that

[19:24] some people have on this situation here.

[19:25] Maybe people who are sharper better

[19:28] Porter talked about how things are

[19:29] changing the shift in the industry kind

[19:31] of going on. maybe talk about the shifts

[19:33] that you've seen and the shifts that

[19:34] you're experiencing. Would love to get

[19:36] that sort of insight in the comment

[19:37] section down below and we can see where

[19:39] opinions may differ on something just

[19:42] like that. Next up on the show, we're

[19:46] going to go to this one from Alex

[19:48] Monahan who talked about bankroll

[19:50] management potentially being overrated.

[19:53] He called it overrated and said, "Most

[19:54] of y'all lose money gambling because

[19:57] you're asset gambling. How much you bet

[19:59] doesn't relate to that." So,

[20:03] Alex Monahan made his name in the

[20:05] industry with OddsJam, that tool, that

[20:07] product. And I think a lot of what kind

[20:11] of goes into odds jamming, as we'll call

[20:13] it, is bankroll management, but

[20:17] curious how what you think on this one,

[20:19] Mike. You're interested in this topic.

[20:21] He's right, but not to the subgroup that

[20:24] he's talking to. I if you're going to do

[20:27] the top down style, pick off the edges,

[20:30] try to get my as much volume as

[20:32] possible, hitting these lines that are

[20:33] uh off and you're doing that there is

[20:36] going to be like you know your bankroll

[20:38] management is going to largely it's

[20:41] going to impact your bankroll growth a

[20:42] ton uh because you know you're betting

[20:44] lower ROI so the margin of error is

[20:46] smaller. if you are betting other stuff,

[20:49] you know, I think that if you can't

[20:51] figure out bankroll management, like

[20:53] it's pretty intuitive to get pretty

[20:55] close on bankroll management. I'm not

[20:57] saying that you're going to have Kelly

[20:58] like memorize or anything like that, but

[21:00] it's pretty, you know, whether you're

[21:02] betting on a 5% edge or a 7% edge, those

[21:05] are actually like I found at least, it's

[21:08] pretty hard to exactly quantify unless

[21:09] you're doing some kind of top down which

[21:11] ones are which. So to me, if you aren't,

[21:15] you know, sharp enough that bankroll

[21:17] management eventually isn't a problem

[21:18] and you get to your limits anyways, then

[21:20] it's, you know, I don't think that

[21:22] bankroll management is many people's

[21:23] limiting factor to be honest. I think

[21:25] either you're going to be good enough

[21:27] that you beat the markets and then if

[21:28] you are, you can figure out the bankroll

[21:30] management in the end. Um, but I I just

[21:32] don't think that it's much of an issue

[21:35] for most people who are winning.

[21:37] >> Okay. Uh, how about Porter on this one?

[21:39] What's your take on this?

[21:40] >> Absolutely. So, I think what he's what

[21:43] he's doing here is a little bit of

[21:45] advertising,

[21:46] even though I know he's like sold Odds

[21:48] Jam or whatever, but effectively he's

[21:50] saying you when he's saying bankroll

[21:53] management is overrated, he's talking

[21:54] about the people not using odds jam

[21:57] because he's saying they're ass because

[21:58] they're basically not using top down

[22:01] method or whatever he thinks is good for

[22:02] betting. So, in reality though, he's

[22:05] 100% right. it this is like it's funny

[22:08] because so many of the lessons from

[22:09] poker uh which you know kind of predates

[22:13] the rush of sports betting getting

[22:14] famous are the same thing where people

[22:16] were like oh I play lower stakes I have

[22:18] a lot of units so you know it's safer

[22:21] I'm like no if you're like losing you

[22:23] know a big bet an hour like eventually

[22:24] you're going to go broke so the same

[22:26] thing happens in sports betting doesn't

[22:28] matter how I mean unless you're betting

[22:29] like pennies at a time but if you're

[22:31] betting like a one 2% of your bankroll

[22:34] which is considered like kind of

[22:35] standard For most beginners who are not

[22:38] doing anything advanced mathematically

[22:40] to figure out bankroll growth and risk,

[22:42] in reality, they're all going broke

[22:44] because their bets their ass. So even

[22:47] though I don't love to give Alex Monohan

[22:50] his like props, the statement itself is

[22:52] right, he's still just I think kind of

[22:54] advertising to use Odds Jam, but and if

[22:57] you don't, your ass isn't going to go

[22:59] broke anyway. Well, not to like, you

[23:01] know, give promo to Odds Jam, but if

[23:03] like you you generally are just coin

[23:04] flipping, don't know what you're doing.

[23:06] Odd odd jam does help in the early

[23:08] stages. It could at least help people

[23:10] who are clueless understand it a little

[23:12] bit.

[23:13] >> Yeah.

[23:13] >> Yeah. It could it could definitely point

[23:15] them in the right direction. So, I can

[23:17] kind of see what he's saying here. Uh

[23:19] Kesh like you might disagree something.

[23:21] >> Did Monahan delete his old account or

[23:24] did it get banned?

[23:27] >> I don't know. because this is a new

[23:32] account

[23:34] that he's tweeting from, not the old one

[23:38] where he created Odds Jam from. I should

[23:41] have maybe brought this up in the

[23:42] pre-show so we could have done that

[23:43] instead of doing research on the fly.

[23:45] But I noticed when because I went to

[23:47] look at this from his old account, he

[23:49] had me blocked who he used to spar when

[23:52] I was trolling Odds Jam. And now this is

[23:54] a new account that appears like he's

[23:58] no longer affiliated at all with any of

[24:02] the odds like sold in like

[24:04] >> this account has uh well it still has

[24:07] odd jam tagged in the

[24:10] >> in the bio

[24:11] >> like a rebrand though.

[24:13] >> Yeah, maybe this is more geared towards

[24:15] like personal sort of content rather

[24:18] than promoting odds gym.

[24:19] >> I think I think so. So, uh, cuz he's

[24:23] also been tweeted some more, uh, you

[24:24] know, inflammatory stuff that usually,

[24:26] you know, people are trying to do. So,

[24:28] Joey Kay's got a little bit of, uh, I

[24:31] never I wouldn't trust Monahan as far as

[24:32] I could throw him under any my opinion

[24:35] under any circumstances. So, uh, my, uh,

[24:38] you know, senses are up here. So, my

[24:41] guess is he's probably got some, you

[24:42] know, new

[24:44] >> product coming.

[24:44] >> Well, for sure there's a new venture

[24:46] he's selling to the lowest common

[24:48] denominator.

[24:50] it but you know he could be now that we

[24:53] figured out the missing at signal and

[24:54] we've gotten that uh mystery solved. I

[24:57] think like whether he's trying to sell

[24:59] something or not the point remains I if

[25:01] you are a winning sports better like it

[25:03] can change the way the number grows but

[25:06] if you are a winning sport it's never

[25:08] going to turn a negative into a positive

[25:09] bankroll management. So if you're

[25:11] betting at, you know, like Porter said

[25:12] when we were talking about poker, if

[25:14] you're losing at the game, whether you

[25:15] lose fast or lose slow, the numbers

[25:16] still negative. And if you're, it's the

[25:18] same with sports betting. Whether you

[25:20] win or whether you lose or whether you

[25:22] uh, you know, properly grow it in the

[25:25] most mathematical precise way possible

[25:27] or not, it's either going to be positive

[25:28] or negative based on if the bets are

[25:30] more likely to win than the uh odds you

[25:33] got them at. Well, to a certain extent

[25:35] because because if you you could be a

[25:38] winning better, but if you're if you're

[25:39] not funded enough, your bank your your

[25:41] your bankroll is not high enough, you

[25:44] could be a winning better and just

[25:45] suffer from variance at a certain stage

[25:47] because your bank

[25:47] >> that's more like a secondary that's more

[25:49] like a secondary problem, not like a

[25:51] root problem.

[25:52] >> Yeah, you could essentially run out of

[25:54] bankroll. You could do it. So, but to

[25:56] me, if you are winning at sports

[25:58] betting, it's very rarely you're also

[26:00] so, you know, like not in control of

[26:03] your actions that you're just going

[26:04] bust. Like you might not grow it at the

[26:06] best way. You might be losing spots

[26:08] because, oh, I bet too much early on and

[26:10] now my bank rolls like lower than it

[26:12] should be and I had to lower my unit

[26:13] size, things like that. But if you are

[26:16] going bust, you probably suck at

[26:17] betting. Anyways,

[26:19] >> okay. I mean, yeah, most of it, like I

[26:21] said, fair fair enough on the topic.

[26:23] Before we go to our next topic here, a

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[26:54] the exact same time. But back to the

[26:57] content here. Uh, we have one from Shane

[27:00] Trail who says, "As a sports better, if

[27:02] you're easily willing to chase a loss or

[27:04] place a bet solely based out of boredom,

[27:06] then your wager size is too small. There

[27:08] needs to be equilibrium that makes you

[27:10] care about losing the wager, which will

[27:12] inevitably make you a more responsible

[27:14] sports better." So, he's I'm going to

[27:17] paraphrase. He is essentially saying

[27:19] that in order to responsibly gamble, you

[27:22] need to bet more. That's kind of what I

[27:25] get here. We'll start we'll start with

[27:27] Mike on this one. What do you think?

[27:29] >> This is the dumb version of the man man

[27:31] point that he was trying to say earlier.

[27:32] The idea that well, if you just start

[27:34] betting large enough, then you'll care

[27:35] more and that's what will help you win.

[27:37] I mean, this is like saying, you know,

[27:38] if it becomes bad enough for your health

[27:41] that once you're eating a ton, it's

[27:43] going to really kill you. Then, you

[27:44] know, nobody has ever kept going past

[27:46] that point. it it's no just because you

[27:49] care more about the wagers that you're

[27:51] placing doesn't mean they're more likely

[27:52] to win. It comes down to actually being

[27:54] able to look at things objectively and

[27:56] no amount of want or like you know grit

[27:59] that he's talking about will help you

[28:00] with that thing. So I mean this is yeah

[28:02] it's pretty idiotic.

[28:04] >> In my experiences

[28:06] um when I've when I've ventured into

[28:10] larger wagers I feel more compelled to

[28:14] make a bad decision after the fact. Not

[28:16] necessarily saying I've I've made that

[28:18] bad decision, but if I make a a larger

[28:20] wager than normal because there's just a

[28:22] big edge and it just it loses. I feel

[28:24] much more compelled to try and get that

[28:26] money back. So, I feel like this is has

[28:29] an adverse effect in what he's

[28:30] portraying. Um, we'll go to you, Porter.

[28:32] What do you think? This is horrendous.

[28:35] This the the analogy for here is is

[28:38] drugs. Effectively, if you create your

[28:40] baseline a little bit higher, all of a

[28:44] sudden things will get better. Like

[28:47] what? This is this is really like fool's

[28:50] error. This is this is actually

[28:51] effectively this is not just adverse.

[28:54] This effectively guarantees

[28:56] that you will go broke and lose because

[28:59] all that's really going to happen is you

[29:01] will continuously raise your baseline

[29:04] higher and higher and higher. Why would

[29:06] it just like naturally stop at a at a

[29:08] certain Also, how does he really decide

[29:10] what the wager size is? Randomly saying

[29:12] this this is literally a one-way recipe

[29:16] to go broke.

[29:17] >> You're right. Drugs is drugs is a

[29:19] perfect analogy for that.

[29:20] >> Much better than the weight one I was

[29:21] trying to go with. Yeah, you guys, if

[29:23] you ever have a cocaine problem, just

[29:24] start going with more and more cocaine.

[29:27] Become too expensive and you won't have

[29:29] a problem anymore.

[29:30] >> Right. Uh can go ahead. Let me say Shane

[29:34] loyal hit the books listener in the

[29:36] chat. Love him. So got got to have his

[29:38] back here. I don't know what these nits

[29:40] are talking about. Um, I will say that

[29:45] it I I like Porter and to to kind of

[29:47] piggy back on Porter's point there where

[29:50] if how can I for like if I wanted to

[29:53] place a wager now at this point that

[29:56] would like get my, you know, heart rate

[29:59] up and the blood like it used to, I

[30:01] would have to bet not to be like, you

[30:04] know, I'm betting too big now, but I

[30:06] would have to bet on such like liquid

[30:10] markets.

[30:11] where I don't where I know for sure I

[30:14] don't have an edge that at some point

[30:16] yes it's going to go bad and I feel like

[30:18] you see that happen to people in this

[30:21] industry who have had edges at some

[30:23] point and then as you try and scale up

[30:26] if you still want that rush that feeling

[30:29] to measure it to your net worth or your

[30:31] bankroll you're going to have to start

[30:33] betting different things where you and

[30:35] where as your edge is decreasing um

[30:38] >> go ahead go ahead no cuz I also like a

[30:41] more logical if you're going to go this

[30:43] path like this type of comment. The more

[30:45] logical thing is just like work a little

[30:47] bit harder and find more edges. If you

[30:49] need the adrenaline or the rush, just go

[30:51] and find more plays. Don't create a

[30:54] formula to go broke.

[30:57] >> Yeah. If if you're not able to beat the

[30:59] market you're in, keep shifting down

[31:01] into markets that are easier and easier.

[31:03] Like Joey said, like if I wanted to get

[31:05] to the point where I'm like, "Hey, I

[31:07] really need to start caring about every

[31:08] win, whether it wins or loses, I'd start

[31:10] betting college football and get my ass

[31:11] kicked on game day." Like I sense like

[31:15] actually what you should be doing is,

[31:16] you know, trying to go when you start

[31:19] when you figure out you can't beat an

[31:21] area and holy [ __ ] I'm losing like in

[31:22] this spot now. I need to go into an area

[31:25] like go be the big fish in a little pond

[31:26] and beat up on the dummies.

[31:28] >> It's not perfect. It's not perfect, but

[31:30] almost like 100% better to reverse what

[31:34] he said would be better than than what

[31:36] he wrote. Literally like right say this.

[31:39] I'm not saying that's like a great

[31:40] solution, but it's definitely better

[31:41] than this solution.

[31:43] >> If you're easily willing to chase a

[31:44] loss, the responsible thing to do is bet

[31:46] less just in case.

[31:48] >> I will say I will say in in his defense,

[31:51] which I got it took me a minute to come

[31:52] up with one. There was a time where, you

[31:56] know, like 10, 15 years ago, if I just

[32:00] wanted to throw something on a game

[32:03] where, you know, I could throw like 10

[32:05] or 20 bucks just to give myself if I had

[32:08] no edge, no capping, not moving this or

[32:11] filling it for anybody, just this game's

[32:13] on, I'm going to throw a wager on it or

[32:15] a prop on it. that amount does increase

[32:20] as you get as you get like more you know

[32:23] like wealthier more like have more money

[32:25] into your disposal where nowadays if I

[32:28] have no I know I don't have an edge or

[32:30] something I'm going to throw like I'm

[32:32] watching you know I don't know some

[32:34] Olympic event or something it's at least

[32:36] a hundred bucks you know what I'm saying

[32:37] it's at least a hundred to just to click

[32:39] it that doesn't totally align with what

[32:41] he's saying but it's at least it's the

[32:43] best defense I can

[32:45] >> that doesn't prove his point at all.

[32:46] That just means you got more money.

[32:48] What?

[32:48] >> Yeah, that has nothing to do with this

[32:50] point. Nothing.

[32:53] I mean, look, I'm sure I'm sure to say

[32:56] it just didn't come across.

[32:57] >> If you're starting to chase your losses,

[32:59] as you know, the the key uh north star

[33:02] of the show once said,

[33:03] >> you lost your mojo, sit out a weekend.

[33:06] >> Yeah.

[33:07] >> Yeah.

[33:08] >> No, no. Increase your base, but more.

[33:10] >> There's there's definitely areas of life

[33:12] where adding jeopardy to the situation

[33:14] enhances your ability. Like in sports,

[33:15] you want to train with Jeopardy. That

[33:17] helps make you a better player, a better

[33:19] athlete. But when it comes to sports

[33:20] betting, I don't believe that's the

[33:22] case. And sure, I'll try and help you

[33:24] defend uh Kenishir with him, Kenir,

[33:26] because I'm sure he meant well, but like

[33:29] this is this is off base.

[33:31] The best way to avoid wanting to chase

[33:33] losses is building yourself up to a

[33:35] point where you trust you're going to

[33:36] win it back with the process you've

[33:38] built, not by

[33:40] >> not by betting more.

[33:42] >> Yeah. Uh, all right. We've got some uh

[33:45] some more interesting advice here. This

[33:48] one on the the industry of handicappers

[33:51] and people who sell picks because

[33:53] there's a bit of discontent for going at

[33:55] each other. Peter_421

[33:58] says, "I have a challenge for all

[33:59] cappers. Just mind your business. Stop

[34:02] talking about every stop talk about

[34:03] other cappers and what they do or might

[34:06] do wrong. Everyone is trying to get

[34:07] bread in some shape or form. But bottom

[34:09] line is stop pocket watching people. You

[34:12] look obsessed and weird. Mind your

[34:14] business. Another person added, Guap Z

[34:17] says, "As a capper, why are you dish Why

[34:19] are you dissing another capper? Focus on

[34:22] your own lane and clients. Never

[34:24] understood that [ __ ] I see it all the

[34:25] time up here. The main goal is to beat

[34:27] the books, not each other's head." Um,

[34:30] interesting take there. Obviously, we do

[34:32] a lot of uh I guess we'll call it

[34:34] bashing on a show like this and on this

[34:37] channel, but maybe do we need to stop

[34:40] Kesh?

[34:42] No.

[34:44] No. That's like that anyone that says

[34:47] that is in your typical like, oh, I had

[34:50] a losing run or I got I'm selling picks

[34:52] and I don't want to be criticized. That

[34:54] that's all it comes from.

[34:56] Yes, I get if someone's just posting on,

[34:58] you know, for fun on the timeline or any

[35:00] of that, okay? But in the majority, the

[35:03] vast majority of cases, this is someone

[35:06] that has a product to sell or is selling

[35:09] on [ __ ] Dub Club, any of those type of

[35:10] things that doesn't want to get

[35:12] criticized because one, that's how they

[35:16] probably fund their betting or two,

[35:18] that's how they're like making a living.

[35:19] So it's like, oh that's not good for

[35:21] business if we oh let's all just, you

[35:23] know, mind our own business.

[35:26] That's not life in any way. That's not

[35:29] politics, sports, movie, any genre.

[35:32] There is critique and there is

[35:34] accountability and there is the popular

[35:37] sphere, the public sentiment. So this

[35:39] whole like everybody just needs to mind

[35:41] their own business and no, that's not

[35:42] reality. That's not real life. And you

[35:44] know what? If you get if you suck, you

[35:46] should be called out for it. So, and if

[35:48] you can't take the heat, get out of the

[35:50] kitchen. If you don't want the ra, if

[35:52] you don't, all it has to do, if you

[35:54] don't like the I I can't take this, then

[35:56] stop posting plays or stop doing what

[35:58] you're doing.

[35:58] >> Uh, how about you, Mike? What's your

[36:00] take on this?

[36:01] >> Logging on to twitter.com and getting

[36:03] mad that people are dunking on you is

[36:06] like going to a Broadway show and being

[36:07] like, why the hell are they singing all

[36:08] the time in this? I don't understand.

[36:10] It's like going to a musical and not

[36:11] expecting someone to sing. That's what

[36:14] >> I've done that once. So, I went into the

[36:15] Joker movie and I was mad that they were

[36:17] singing at a movie that was branded as a

[36:19] musical. So, I guess it happens. Me,

[36:22] too.

[36:22] >> Yeah. It's just that's what the platform

[36:24] was made for. That's what it's going to

[36:26] be used. People are like, "Oh, just, you

[36:28] know, like what did you expect a bunch

[36:30] of people talking about gambling are

[36:32] going to do. You can't talk about nobody

[36:33] wants to talk about how you win. Nobody

[36:35] should talk about how others lose.

[36:36] Nobody wants to talk about sports

[36:38] specific stuff." It's like I don't

[36:39] understand what they think that people

[36:41] are going to talk about all day or what

[36:42] what you think you're going to get out

[36:44] of this platform back.

[36:45] >> Porter, anything to add?

[36:47] >> Yeah, this is way worse than what the

[36:49] bottom two screens are saying. I'm going

[36:50] to re-ransate what's actually written

[36:53] here. What he is saying is I steal from

[36:56] people. I affect people negatively.

[37:00] Don't criticize me cuz that's how I make

[37:03] money and that's okay. I learned that

[37:06] that it I learned like speaking for him

[37:09] that it's okay to do these things and by

[37:11] you criticizing me you are affect

[37:13] possibly affecting me probably not

[37:15] affecting them but probably helping them

[37:17] because the people don't understand

[37:19] what's really going on but the idea is

[37:21] we're trying to help people think we're

[37:23] criticizing no what's really happening

[37:26] is he is believing like either

[37:29] culturally or you know socioeconomically

[37:32] like that this is he might actually

[37:35] believe that this is okay. Now, the

[37:38] second person's comment is sort of

[37:39] disconnected from this. He doesn't

[37:41] really understand that the first person

[37:43] is literally saying, "I make people

[37:45] lose. I'm stealing money, but that's

[37:47] okay. That's how I learn to make money."

[37:50] The second person is disconnected. He

[37:51] actually thinks that the first person,

[37:54] Peter Forth, is talking about working

[37:56] together and beating up the books. He's

[37:58] not. He's talking about working against

[38:00] his clients, but pretending that he's

[38:02] working for his clients. Yeah, it's just

[38:05] I I'm really It just really pisses me

[38:07] off when people who sell pics think that

[38:11] they're operating like it it's not a

[38:13] standard business. Like if you sell like

[38:15] something that if you sell a product

[38:17] that is not just like a widely known

[38:19] like whether or not this is a good

[38:20] product. So something that's a little

[38:22] bit more confusing like like uh a good

[38:24] quality knife or uh a a wristwatch. Some

[38:27] of these like there are certain

[38:28] intricacies about your product that

[38:30] somebody who knows a lot about the

[38:32] industry will be able to pick out and

[38:33] say, "Okay, this is this is way

[38:35] overpriced. Like you shouldn't be buying

[38:36] this. This is an awful product that

[38:38] they're selling." That's not like

[38:41] attacking someone trying to make their

[38:42] money. That's trying to protect the

[38:44] people from spending their money on it.

[38:46] Like look, you can make your money in

[38:47] any way you want, but I think people are

[38:50] well within their right to question it

[38:52] and ask people who are purchasing that

[38:55] to question it and stop them from

[38:57] putting their money in something that

[38:58] look, I I don't expect these guys to be

[39:01] winning betters here. Go ahead.

[39:02] >> If if you were a financial adviser,

[39:04] imagine if your financial adviser was

[39:05] like, "Yo, we got to stop talking crap

[39:07] about other stock picks, bro. We got to

[39:09] figure out what stocks we're going to

[39:11] beat the market together." like you if

[39:13] you don't want people talking about the

[39:15] product that you're providing, it's

[39:16] typically a pretty big sign that your

[39:18] product sucks.

[39:19] >> Yes, absolutely. Um, anyways, on with

[39:23] the show here. Uh, I said earlier on in

[39:25] this show, as I was asking you to

[39:26] subscribe, I'll ask you again, but I did

[39:29] say that there's some exciting stuff

[39:30] coming to the circles off channel. We

[39:32] have a lot of stuff. We're putting in a

[39:33] lot of work. That's why we had the week

[39:35] off. We spent a lot of time working on

[39:37] potential new content for the channel.

[39:39] uh little bit of extra graphics. Lots of

[39:41] fun stuff coming. So, I implore you to

[39:43] get subscribed to the channel so you

[39:44] don't miss out on anything we have

[39:45] coming up. Don't have enough to tease it

[39:47] just yet, but that'll be coming very,

[39:49] very soon. Just know we're working very

[39:51] hard and bringing better content more

[39:53] often to you, the viewer or the listener

[39:55] here on the channel. Drop a like as well

[39:57] if you are enjoying so far. Let's get

[39:59] into some NBA talk here. Uh, we had this

[40:02] one from Tom Herstro who says, "The new

[40:07] 65game rule might deliver Cade

[40:09] Cunningham, the MVP in the NBA. SGA's

[40:13] abil eligibility is in jeopardy. We Luke

[40:16] and Joic on pace to be disqualified. I

[40:18] wrote about it here and he showcases a

[40:19] graphic here

[40:21] that has the percentage of games that

[40:24] the player has played based on the

[40:26] amount of games that their team has

[40:27] played and the amount of games that they

[40:28] have missed and then has used that

[40:31] percentage of games played to set a pace

[40:34] for the amount of games that they will

[40:35] play this season. And in doing so, he

[40:37] has revealed that Donic, Webbeyama, and

[40:40] Joic will not be able to hit the 65game

[40:43] mark. Sheay will only just hit it.

[40:46] Therefore, an extra injury could spell

[40:48] danger. Cade is the safe play because

[40:51] he's on pace for 73 games played. Now,

[40:54] interesting to use the data in such a

[40:57] way on percentage games played. What

[40:59] this data, and I'm I hope you guys agree

[41:02] with me, uh what this data does not

[41:04] account for is the players desire to hit

[41:07] 65 games and knowing that they must hit

[41:10] 65 games to be eligible for awards. I I

[41:12] I think that's the main problem here.

[41:14] like uh what do you have to say on it?

[41:16] No, that's not the main the main problem

[41:17] is like so I mean I went to visit my

[41:21] niece last weekend and she was at the

[41:24] rate she's growing like at this point

[41:26] I'm kind of worried she might be 70 foot

[41:28] tall by the time she grows up just based

[41:31] on you know she improved from this much

[41:33] and if you just take the growth from one

[41:35] point to the next it just applies on

[41:38] every single year she's going to be

[41:39] alive or like the problem is they missed

[41:42] a period of time due to a specific

[41:45] injury a large chunk of time that has no

[41:48] predictive value on the rest of I mean

[41:50] it has some like a very small percentage

[41:52] but if you miss a large like you miss

[41:55] games for injuries that are discreet

[41:58] chunks. So what if you miss 10 games for

[42:00] an injury for a hamstring and you know

[42:03] if you miss that and then you play 10

[42:04] games it doesn't mean you're more likely

[42:07] to play 50% of games moving forward. So

[42:10] these happen in these chunks and to

[42:12] project it over the course of the season

[42:14] makes no sense. Like even intuitively,

[42:16] one player, I think it's uh Joic there,

[42:19] he's missed I think every single one but

[42:21] one of the games was missed in the same

[42:22] stretch. So why would you use just the

[42:25] season pace to project out for the rest

[42:27] of the season? Why not use his pace of

[42:29] the last five games and he's going to

[42:30] play 100% of the games for the season?

[42:32] So I mean it's just it's horrible math.

[42:34] This Tom Habro used to be kind of smart.

[42:36] I think I think he was a pretty like

[42:38] decent stats guy uh for ESPN. Was pretty

[42:41] talented young guy and has just really

[42:43] kind of made worse and worse content as

[42:45] the years have gone on.

[42:46] >> All right, let's uh go to you Kenishh.

[42:48] You were in agreement there. Anything?

[42:50] >> Yeah, I mean there there is no like most

[42:52] of those guys on the list Donic and

[42:55] they're playing currently. So as PB

[42:58] saying like injuries aren't it's not a

[43:00] load manage. It's almost like he tried

[43:02] to make a load management extrapolation,

[43:06] but it's not a load management. Like

[43:08] you're either going to miss like, you

[43:10] know, two weeks with a, you know, a

[43:11] grade one hamstring strain or a sprained

[43:13] ankle or nothing. So it's not like I'm

[43:15] going to miss like, you know, every

[43:16] third game because of the pace I've been

[43:19] on for the year. Um, so with that said

[43:22] though,

[43:24] Detroit

[43:26] Kane Cunningham

[43:28] all we need at this SGAA. It's funny

[43:32] because there's a chance that the

[43:35] outcome of his data actually like the

[43:39] the the end statement of Cunningham

[43:42] occurs and then it comes back and said,

[43:44] "Oh no." where if Joic missed the game,

[43:47] this SGA, it's lingering a little bit

[43:49] and then who's to say who's the third

[43:52] choice. Also, I'm looking at around the

[43:54] odds today. A lot of people are getting

[43:56] on the Cunningham train. A a good way to

[43:58] frame how dumb this is is if you did

[44:00] this 10 games ago, Joic would be like he

[44:03] would have no chance of getting to the

[44:05] 82 games and Shay would be like a lot to

[44:07] get it. So 10 just 10 games a five games

[44:10] ago, Shay was like at you know one game

[44:12] miss. So that's just a point. He's

[44:15] picking one random point in time and

[44:16] using to extrapolate. Also, to be clear,

[44:19] if both of those guys miss, then our

[44:21] Lord and Savior, Victor Webeyama, would

[44:24] still get the MVP uh over top of them.

[44:27] So like I don't think that they're going

[44:28] to give the MVP to the eighth best

[44:30] player in basketball, but we'll see.

[44:32] >> Uh Porter, I haven't heard from you on

[44:33] this one, so why don't you go ahead. I

[44:36] went too late. The guys covered

[44:37] everything. This is complete garbage

[44:40] data in. So you got complete garbage

[44:43] info out. The best way to use this data

[44:47] is to just not look at it. This is

[44:50] literally tells you absolutely nothing.

[44:54] And this is like how other

[44:57] this this I thought this was I thought

[44:59] he was joking, but I realized Peanut

[45:02] Butter said that he was like a person

[45:03] through

[45:05] >> I don't know what this is. This this is

[45:06] this is nonsense. I mean he's worked

[45:08] he's got the Yahoo badge here. So Yeah,

[45:11] that's different usage of that word for

[45:13] this post.

[45:15] >> Check out uh if you look at the couchy

[45:17] activity, people started hammering KBS

[45:19] when this tweet came out. Like it really

[45:21] like

[45:22] >> that's the lesson to learn from here.

[45:23] That's the lesson. Let people move the

[45:25] guard.

[45:25] >> Find the people who move the markets

[45:28] with bad information and set

[45:30] notifications so that you notify.

[45:31] >> It's like everything has an edge.

[45:33] Everything has an edge. This completely

[45:35] worthless piece of data, a sharp person

[45:37] can take advantage of it. Not the way

[45:39] they think. So on to my the point I

[45:41] brought up is that you Dantic and Wemby

[45:43] at 64 and 63 in the position like

[45:45] they're just off the they're just off

[45:48] the quote unquote pace here. They are

[45:51] aware of this 65game mark as well that

[45:54] they need to hit. So WBY who you know

[45:58] does some load management time to time.

[46:00] They don't play him every single game

[46:01] but if he is about to lose out on the

[46:04] 65game mark they are not going to do

[46:07] that anymore. They are going to try and

[46:08] get him there because they know he might

[46:10] win. Well, he's going to win DPOI if he

[46:12] gets there. He might win MVP if he gets

[46:14] there.

[46:14] >> Yeah.

[46:15] >> No, for sure that's a component. That's

[46:16] a like a small component. But the the

[46:19] main component is data means not

[46:21] nothing. He's just picking a weird

[46:23] segment of time to make this data say

[46:25] whatever. Maybe he likes Detroit and

[46:28] wants this.

[46:29] Yeah,

[46:30] >> like what you said, Jacob, I think is a

[46:32] way a person who is doing it smartly

[46:34] could miss, be like, "Okay, you know,

[46:35] I'm projecting out these probabilities

[46:37] and you don't take into account that

[46:38] later in the season they might try more

[46:40] things like that." That's like a along

[46:41] the margins thing that actually is like

[46:43] could get missed. But his process is so

[46:45] bad in projecting it out, it's like, you

[46:47] know, having a bad paint job on a car

[46:49] that doesn't run,

[46:50] >> right? All right. So, maybe Cade not the

[46:54] right bet, unless you ask Joey Kish, of

[46:56] course. Um, that may not have been the

[46:59] worst tweet I saw last week because this

[47:01] tweet exists and to my surprise still

[47:04] existed when I went to go put together

[47:07] the show today. Um, Buddy HK so

[47:11] lightbeer69 burner account, but still.

[47:14] Um, unfortunately there was a tragedy in

[47:17] the NFL this week. Rond Del Moore sadly

[47:19] passed away at 25 years old.

[47:23] to honor him. Uh, this user posted rest

[47:27] easy brother with a photo of a jersey he

[47:30] bought because he won a same game parlay

[47:33] and he shows the ticket here, the

[47:35] screenshot of the same game parlay he

[47:37] had on Rico Dattle and Rond Del Moore to

[47:39] score a touchdown in the same game.

[47:44] This is his tribute to Rond Del Moore.

[47:47] Uh, wow.

[47:49] people. Let him know this is a pretty

[47:52] horrific way to go about trying to honor

[47:55] a player. Uh Mike, why don't you try to

[47:57] tackle this one first?

[47:59] >> I'm gonna tackle the part the, you know,

[48:00] the dark part that people don't want to

[48:02] talk about.

[48:03] >> The bet wasn't that good. It needs to be

[48:05] a better bet if that's how you're going

[48:06] to remember him.

[48:07] >> Yeah. that

[48:08] >> there was a player uh Steven Quan has

[48:11] had uh he made a play that has won me

[48:13] the amount of money that was very

[48:15] significant to me at the time and I will

[48:17] always remember him that even when he if

[48:19] he does you know god forbid something

[48:21] happens to him I'll always remember him

[48:22] through that bet but $20 plus 2100 odds

[48:26] it's just not big enough for him to

[48:28] remember

[48:28] >> not not to unit shame $450

[48:31] >> the odds are just as bad too it's like

[48:33] it's not that like you can hit a plus

[48:35] two like a 2100 bet that big like if he

[48:38] hit you know 100 to one maybe you can

[48:40] remember him this way but I just don't

[48:42] think that it's a good enough bet for

[48:43] him to do it.

[48:45] Go ahead, Kesh.

[48:47] >> You know, when I saw this slide, I said

[48:49] to myself, this is something that I

[48:52] thought would belong in the chopping

[48:54] block that if I recall, we voted to

[48:58] bring back this week. As one of our

[49:00] diehard fans said, he wanted the

[49:04] chopping block back and we were going to

[49:06] honor him with it. But it doesn't appear

[49:08] that the chopping block got reinstated

[49:11] this week against

[49:13] >> what was the vote was the vote two to

[49:16] one you and Mike against me

[49:18] >> process where the vote said yes we want

[49:20] it back and it wasn't included so I'm

[49:24] going to pretend this is a chopping

[49:25] block segment and uh that that'll be it

[49:27] for me.

[49:28] >> What you need to understand Kenishh is

[49:30] that there is a much larger thing going

[49:32] on behind the scenes that you could not

[49:34] possibly comprehend. That is why the

[49:36] chopping block cannot exist. I cannot go

[49:39] into detail live on air here, but just

[49:41] understand there is a very good reason

[49:43] why the chopping block doesn't exist.

[49:45] You're just going to have to trust me on

[49:47] this one. Uh, getting back to topic,

[49:50] Porter, uh, have your say on this one

[49:52] here.

[49:52] >> Oh, you guys left me a tough one. I

[49:54] think this is kind of a, as the guy

[49:56] wrote, rest easy, brother. I think this

[49:58] is a rest easy this segment, okay, on

[50:02] this on this topic. You know, if if we

[50:04] still did have the chop block, this

[50:05] would be good chopping block fod, but we

[50:07] don't we don't have it anymore.

[50:09] >> We'll be back next week.

[50:10] >> Yeah, we'll see. Uh, anyways, oh, we're

[50:13] having our fun here. Where you can also

[50:15] have some fun and get involved with the

[50:16] hammer community is with the Discord

[50:18] that we have at the Hammer Bag Network.

[50:20] Now, I know you already know about it,

[50:21] but if you're if you still aren't

[50:23] involved, then you are still missing

[50:25] out. We have nearly 1,800 members in the

[50:27] Discord. It's absolutely cooking. It's a

[50:28] place to chat during games, chat with

[50:30] our creators, where our creators are

[50:32] also sharing bets during games. You know

[50:33] what? A lot of our Hammer audience is

[50:35] sharing some banger bets as well. You

[50:37] can join us at discord.gg/hammer

[50:40] to see what you have been missing out

[50:42] on. The link is in the description to

[50:44] get involved with the Discord today. But

[50:47] we've arrived to the final piece on

[50:49] today's show. Uh, we have this one from

[50:51] Plus EV Analytics who showcases some of

[50:55] the power of AI, which we spoke about

[50:57] quite a bit on on this Friday's show,

[50:58] but Plus EV says, "Pretty cool to be

[51:00] living in a time where this exists.

[51:02] Would I bet anything blindly on AI

[51:04] recommendations?" Of course not. But

[51:05] with a thousand plus props on the board

[51:07] tonight, it helps me focus on areas to

[51:09] go deeper on. He showcases kind of where

[51:11] he's headed there. Porter, uh, because

[51:13] we haven't heard from you on this, how

[51:15] much does AI factor into your day-to-day

[51:18] from betting, if at all? So I I have

[51:22] tried what he's done many times with

[51:24] chatbt just for shits and giggles not

[51:27] really to like use it and you will see

[51:30] progress over the last 6 months. I still

[51:32] don't think this is that useful, but the

[51:35] change of what's coming is very obvious.

[51:37] And when people say

[51:40] using AI in sports betting, uh what they

[51:43] don't really mean using chat GBT to type

[51:46] these lines in cuz if you actually go

[51:47] through what's written here, it's kind

[51:49] of pretty low value. So, I know what

[51:51] he's trying to say is like, you know,

[51:53] look at the entire board and maybe this

[51:55] will give me direction. But the right

[51:57] way to use AI is you're supposed to like

[52:00] prompt Claude into writing code, not

[52:03] typing into chat GBT to give you this

[52:05] sentence that gives you an answer. So

[52:08] this isn't what it means to you. So for

[52:10] like the viewers that are thinking AI is

[52:13] coming to sports betting, it means

[52:16] coding with Claude. It doesn't mean type

[52:19] into chat GPT give me answer for best

[52:22] bet of tonight. And you know what? Maybe

[52:25] in like a year or two, you know, as this

[52:27] thing accelerates. It might be, but

[52:29] definitely today. It doesn't mean type

[52:32] into chat GBT give me answer for sports

[52:34] bet tonight. That is like to the penny

[52:38] by experience of when I was like first

[52:40] using some AI models. I was like, can I

[52:42] just put in here like oh like this stuff

[52:44] doesn't work. It's garbage. Like it

[52:47] didn't give me anything. So yes, I I

[52:49] agree there is like a a steep learning

[52:52] curve if you want to get like really

[52:54] good outcomes uh that that are a little

[52:56] bit more detailed than uh what our

[52:58] friend plus EV is doing there.

[53:00] >> I'll defend a bit here. It looks like

[53:02] he's putting in his projections to it

[53:04] and is just asking like based on the

[53:07] projections that he's made where is

[53:10] where is something he should target?

[53:12] Where are the possible targets in the

[53:14] market? I don't think he's he's just

[53:16] blindly said, "Where are the where are

[53:19] the winning bets today?" or something

[53:20] like that. I I don't think Plus CV would

[53:23] be that barbaric with it. Feels like it'

[53:25] be much more sophisticated. Um and like

[53:28] he says, not blindly betting on the

[53:30] recommendations. But Mike, do you have

[53:32] something to add?

[53:33] >> This is one of the worst uses of AI

[53:34] possible because not only is he pulling

[53:37] up these bets that he's pulling up like

[53:39] they're deter you could pull those up

[53:41] deterministically as good as you could.

[53:42] Like there's no need to use an AI thing

[53:44] to be like what's my biggest edge here.

[53:46] You could put a pivot table in Excel and

[53:48] look at it and like I just don't

[53:50] understand like the chatbt is doing

[53:52] nothing in that picture. Like the

[53:54] questions you can tell he's trying to

[53:55] have it answer are questions that you

[53:57] could like you could say hey have write

[54:00] me this script that pulls up my top

[54:01] biggest edges by rank and it would be so

[54:04] much more effective. It's just it's the

[54:05] wrong tool uh for what he's trying to do

[54:08] there. And it's like one, if you ever

[54:12] are using these AIs, one of the areas

[54:13] they like really mess up the most is

[54:15] trying to call things as far as numbers

[54:17] because they just make up numbers. Like

[54:18] it's just the wrong way to use the data

[54:21] uh pretty egregiously. And plus is a

[54:23] very smart guy and everything, you know,

[54:25] all caveats aside, but it's a terrible

[54:26] use of AI.

[54:27] >> I mean, I could see this working like in

[54:30] five years. Not not this like you cannot

[54:34] I I I've tried this actually. I've tried

[54:37] today. It just says nonsense. Even when

[54:40] you give it like projections, it'll like

[54:42] spit something out and then you

[54:43] literally type back, I didn't that's not

[54:45] in my projection. What are you talking

[54:46] about? Where did you get that? And I'm

[54:47] like, oh, you're right. I don't know

[54:49] where I got that, but let me delete

[54:50] that. Well, a major flaw with AI is that

[54:53] it it's it just it must provide you an

[54:56] answer. It cannot come back at you and

[54:58] say uh won't at least with the first

[55:01] prompt, it won't come back at you and

[55:03] say, I can't do this or I can't figure

[55:04] this out. It will manufacture an answer.

[55:07] If that means putting in falsified data,

[55:10] then it will do that.

[55:11] >> But it could be it could be the audience

[55:13] actually. Some people actually think

[55:14] this is what it means to use AI in

[55:16] sports betting. But from like people who

[55:19] sports bet at a higher tier, I've never

[55:22] heard of someone do it like this. It is

[55:24] meant like you code with Claude that

[55:27] helps you for information that you need,

[55:30] not punch in words and hope for final

[55:33] solution. in chat GBT

[55:35] >> even hallucinations aside like you have

[55:38] to ask things the right question or use

[55:41] the right process for them to work it

[55:42] reminds me of like when Google like have

[55:44] you ever watched have seen an old person

[55:46] use Google and they like ask the full

[55:48] typed out question and you're like no

[55:49] like just put two words that's what you

[55:51] want to like look up there it's like

[55:53] people don't know how to prompt it yet

[55:55] and it ar don't know like where it

[55:57] skills are and skills aren't so I yeah I

[56:00] just the way it's being used there

[56:02] >> yeah I think it's a pretty good point of

[56:04] like people in Google type in like send

[56:06] me recommendations for the best

[56:08] restaurants and then instead you could

[56:10] put

[56:11] >> I don't know Smashburger Toronto and

[56:14] it'll give me a list of the best places

[56:16] in Toronto something like that. Much

[56:17] more efficient that way.

[56:19] >> Scary because the people who are growing

[56:20] up now we're going to be like the people

[56:21] who learned it later in life. So like

[56:24] the people who are growing up with AI

[56:25] are just going to understand how to use

[56:26] it intuitively better than us. So in the

[56:28] end we're all going to be plus uh

[56:30] getting cooked by AI. Yeah, I think hey

[56:34] maybe that's the case. Give us your

[56:35] thoughts on AI and uh hey little teaser

[56:37] potential new content to show something

[56:39] we do want to cover a little bit

[56:40] extensively in the future is AI and

[56:42] sports betting. You just have to wait

[56:43] and see on something like that. Make

[56:44] sure you're subscribed to the channel so

[56:46] you never miss out on any content we

[56:47] have coming your way. Also make sure you

[56:49] drop a like if you enjoyed this edition

[56:51] of Circle Back. Thank you so much for

[56:53] watching. We will see you again next

[56:54] time.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Transcript: 

 

[00:00] This is the like the second time within

[00:03] a few months where they they just had

[00:05] the the SGP thing on their like DK pick

[00:08] six thing where where it like screwed up

[00:10] and a bunch of people robbed the bank

[00:12] and now it's happening again. Like who

[00:14] is who is in the trading room? IF I'M

[00:17] I'M A SUIT I'M LIKE EVERYBODY'S OUT.

[00:20] >> DISCLAIMER: The content presented in

[00:22] this show is intended for entertainment

[00:24] purposes only. All opinions expressed

[00:26] are those of the host and do not

[00:27] necessarily reflect the views or

[00:29] opinions of any individuals or

[00:30] organizations mentioned. Statements made

[00:32] about public figures or entities are

[00:34] based on publicly available information

[00:36] and are not intended to harm or defame

[00:39] any person or business. This show relies

[00:41] on fair use of social media posts which

[00:43] are presented in good faith for the

[00:45] purpose of commentary and criticism.

[00:47] Viewers and listeners are advised to

[00:48] form their own opinions.

[00:57] Is bankroll management overrated? Is the

[01:00] best way to responsibly gamble just by

[01:03] betting more? And of course, we're going

[01:04] to be talking about the minus 10,000

[01:07] cash out disaster that occurred on

[01:09] DraftKings right here on Circle Back,

[01:12] currently circles off channel, which is

[01:14] part of the Hammerbag network and

[01:15] presented by Cal, the show, as you know,

[01:18] where we cover the latest and greatest

[01:19] news that comes from gambling Twitter.

[01:21] We're back with the Friday crew after a

[01:24] week off as you can see at circles off.

[01:26] We put some work into maybe some new

[01:29] graphics, some new designs that you see

[01:30] on screen, and also some new content

[01:32] coming soon, which we touched about a

[01:33] little bit later on. But we're here with

[01:35] the Friday crew, as I said, for today's

[01:37] show. My name is Jacob Grer. I am a

[01:39] creator and producer here at the Hammer

[01:41] Bag Network. Down in the bottom left, we

[01:43] have Pro Sports Better Mike aka Mr.

[01:45] Peanut Better. Down in the bottom right

[01:47] corner of the screen, we have the

[01:48] co-host on the Hit the Books YouTube

[01:50] channel, The Hammers College Football

[01:52] Content Division, Joey Kesh, and Porter

[01:54] of BA Analytics joining us as our fourth

[01:56] in the top right. Porter, how you doing

[01:58] today? Uh, like you said before we

[02:00] started recording here. It's been a

[02:01] while since we had you on, so good to

[02:02] have you back.

[02:03] >> Yep. Busy season with all the sports

[02:05] running. Things are slowing down just a

[02:07] little bit. Time to hit the social the

[02:09] media. And Kenesh, you're showing off uh

[02:12] the new studio. Work in progress, but uh

[02:15] good to have you in an actual chair, not

[02:16] in your kitchen.

[02:17] >> Work in progress. We've moved from the

[02:19] kitchen uh to the bedroom that's been

[02:21] allocated for uh the new uh the new home

[02:24] office. I still got a little work to do.

[02:26] We were discussing some I some very uh

[02:28] detailed IT specific uh pre-show in

[02:32] terms of how to set up a dual monitor uh

[02:34] which thankfully a family member will be

[02:36] taking care of. But uh yeah. Yeah, it's

[02:38] going good. look forward to. Uh I got to

[02:40] get a few other things going in here.

[02:42] But the problem is when you don't set up

[02:44] anything yourself, you have to wait on

[02:46] people to do it. So that that's the

[02:47] that's been the delay.

[02:48] >> Yeah. It's not like anyone any neural

[02:51] pro could ever figure out to plug in two

[02:52] monitors and set them side by side and

[02:55] go into the settings and and ensure that

[02:57] the dual monitor setup. No, it's

[02:58] impossible to do.

[02:59] >> As the boomer of the show, no, that is

[03:01] not uh it is not in my skill set. You

[03:04] know, I do find it incredible like the

[03:06] the the caliber of sports betterers that

[03:08] I've worked with in working on circles

[03:10] off and at the hammer. The like the

[03:12] ability they have to go to great lengths

[03:14] to be able to bet sports professionally

[03:16] and then like the most simple IT tasks

[03:19] are just impossible to them. It is it is

[03:22] truly astonishing and will never cease

[03:24] to amaze me. But uh regardless, everyone

[03:27] can make mistakes. even one of the

[03:29] biggest recreational sports book and

[03:31] their traders as we saw with the leadoff

[03:33] topic for today's show which is on this.

[03:37] So Eric Patterson at EPATGolf didn't

[03:41] really maybe quite understand what he

[03:43] had stumbled into here when he said show

[03:44] me a worse outright board you can't. It

[03:47] was the outright for the Cognizant

[03:48] Classic a PGA Tour event where every

[03:51] single golfer was listed at minus 10,000

[03:55] to be the winner. So maybe to an

[03:58] untrained person not super familiar with

[04:00] what's going on here, they're saying,

[04:01] "Okay, well, they're adjusting the

[04:02] odds." And maybe they are. But if you

[04:05] had already placed your wager prior to

[04:07] this, of course, minus 10,000 would

[04:09] potentially trigger a massive cash out.

[04:12] That is exactly what happened here. This

[04:15] made very large rounds as quick as it

[04:17] happened. This happened right before we

[04:20] went live on Monday. Okay, so we weren't

[04:21] able to talk about it on Monday for

[04:23] Circle Back, but we saved it here for

[04:24] the Friday crew. So, a better $5 on

[04:28] Justin Hicks at plus 500,000 and was

[04:33] able to cash out for nearly 22 grand.

[04:36] Somebody had Brendan Todd plus $450,000.

[04:40] $5 wager cashed out for nearly $20,000.

[04:44] And I'm sure there were a lot more

[04:46] people who did this. Uh, I did hear of

[04:49] people who were able to do this and were

[04:51] able to get the money into their bank

[04:53] account as well. So, it wasn't as if

[04:55] they weren't able to pull this money out

[04:56] if they did it quick enough. Uh, Eric

[04:58] Patterson added that DK got cooked on

[05:00] cash just by putting everyone at minus

[05:02] 10,000 while adjusting odds. And our old

[05:05] friend Bo L Wagner Bo knows says DK

[05:08] cooked my account over four years ago on

[05:10] a legitimate bet. These accounts will

[05:12] never see the light of day again. But

[05:14] for someone making, you know, small

[05:16] wagers, outright golf bets, $20,000 is

[05:20] worth a lot more than having that

[05:21] account. So, of course, you should be

[05:23] comfortable losing that account. But

[05:25] let's get into like just maybe exactly

[05:28] what happened here. Let's start off with

[05:29] you, Kenish. Do you have any idea how

[05:32] how does something like this happen? The

[05:34] funny part, this is the like the second

[05:37] time within a few months where they they

[05:39] just had the the SGP thing on their like

[05:42] DK pick six thing where where it like

[05:45] screwed up and a bunch of people robbed

[05:46] the bank and now it's happening again.

[05:49] Like who is who is in the trading room?

[05:51] Like if I if I'M A I'M A SUIT I'M LIKE

[05:55] EVERYBODY'S OUT LIKE HOW DOES this

[05:57] happen? And it's not only happening,

[06:00] people are like, it happens a few months

[06:03] ago and now it's almost like people have

[06:06] got the oh, as soon as this happens, I

[06:08] got to pull the money out. So, you're

[06:09] getting a bunch of WITHDRAWALS

[06:10] PROCESSING. I DON'T KNOW WHAT the

[06:12] oversight process is here, but it's also

[06:15] the fact that you've got these, you

[06:17] know, very recreational bettors. I know

[06:20] in one of our uh group chats, uh, a

[06:23] friend of the pizza man was talking

[06:24] about like, you know, the guys have a

[06:26] lifetime loser account. He's a 510 $20

[06:28] better. This happened. He was able to

[06:30] pull it out and now he's a win. Now he's

[06:32] up. So your whole like P&L on this guy

[06:34] is all screwed up. Um and and so I I

[06:38] don't know. It's it's happened a number

[06:40] of times. And you know what? If you got

[06:41] it and you were able to get the money

[06:43] out, good for you. I don't I I'm not

[06:46] sure how this uh this is like now a

[06:50] redundant occurrence uh at DraftKings uh

[06:54] again. So yeah, a rough one for old DK,

[06:57] but hey, if you were able to get it in

[06:58] out of there and I agree, like the whole

[07:00] Bo Wagner like, oh, you cooked your

[07:02] account, if you've got a 500 to1 that's

[07:05] paying out on a $5 bet, like you're not

[07:07] caring about the account. You're taking

[07:08] the money and boom, you're out of there.

[07:09] >> You can find a new DraftKings account.

[07:11] >> Yes. Uh you you'll you'll be okay. You

[07:13] can take that payout. Uh Mike, you've

[07:15] got experience in trading, so maybe give

[07:18] us a bit of insight into how how

[07:20] something like this could possibly

[07:21] happen. uh you're talking to someone who

[07:23] once put up a college or college

[07:25] basketball second half line without

[07:27] first inputting the score from the first

[07:28] half. So if you run the sim then and put

[07:30] it up I'll let you know that it tends to

[07:32] come in a little bit lower um than if

[07:34] you actually enter the points in. So I

[07:36] think this goes back to so if you're DK

[07:39] and you are kind of building your

[07:42] product to be playing all these lotto

[07:44] type games you're adding in SGPs all

[07:47] these very complicated things you're

[07:49] just creating more areas for your stuff

[07:51] to break. So DK has like everybody wants

[07:54] to create new markets and everybody

[07:56] wants to add all these features and now

[07:58] you can have SGP here. We want everybody

[08:00] to be cash out all the time. And yes,

[08:03] those are like, you know, overall like

[08:06] they're not going to be offering plus EV

[08:08] spots for these people. They're going to

[08:10] be raking in uh fees and kind of

[08:12] tricking people and things, but you

[08:15] really when you're like testing it out

[08:16] and seeing how, okay, how will this go?

[08:18] How much will this make us, etc. I think

[08:21] that you probably lose out the

[08:22] complexity of there's just more things

[08:25] to break now than there ever has been.

[08:28] And especially for DK, if you think

[08:30] about I would guess that mistakes like

[08:32] this happen at other books as well, but

[08:34] you just don't have everybody vulturing

[08:37] them, you know, checking all the time

[08:39] like they are on DK. So like if

[08:40] something like this happens at Bet

[08:42] Rivers, like the three people that are

[08:43] at betting at Bet Rivers are going to

[08:45] get a significant payout. I It's just

[08:47] much different when you're kind of the

[08:49] top dog as DK is, and as they keep

[08:51] adding these things, it just leaves more

[08:53] and more spots to break.

[08:54] >> All right, we'll go over to you, Porter.

[08:56] Uh surely some jobs lost for something

[08:58] like this. What do you think?

[08:59] >> Yeah. Well, I would say the real problem

[09:01] is all the jobs lost before this

[09:03] happened. So, you know, when a company

[09:05] like DK is just endlessly making cuts or

[09:09] >> you know, you know, peanut butter here's

[09:11] a former trader, not a current trader,

[09:13] all the real traders eventually they

[09:15] leave. They're not paid enough there.

[09:17] This is what happens when you're

[09:19] competing against people that are either

[09:21] underqualified, underpaid, don't care as

[09:23] much, don't have incentive. So, it's

[09:25] just natural that you're going to see

[09:26] these kind of events occur over time,

[09:29] especially like, you know, when you're

[09:30] offering tons and tons of markets with

[09:32] tons and tons of people trying to

[09:34] attack. And then this is a lesson for

[09:36] everyone. I think that maybe back in the

[09:39] earlier days, you would keep your money

[09:41] on the account in these spots thinking

[09:43] things would be okay. But I would

[09:44] definitely say today it's like you got

[09:46] to be snap getting the money out of

[09:48] there, doing everything you can. It's

[09:50] not just enough to win or recognize the

[09:52] situation. At the end of the day, you

[09:54] can win the bet, but if the bet doesn't

[09:55] hit your bank account, you didn't you

[09:58] didn't do anything.

[09:59] >> So, for anyone wondering, um, if you do,

[10:01] let's say you were one of the people who

[10:03] were able to cash this out, you have a

[10:05] huge balance and you were able to

[10:06] withdraw that immediately. DraftKings

[10:08] would likely put a negative balance into

[10:10] your account. All you got to do is just

[10:12] not deposit there ever again. But

[10:16] spots like draft canes and other

[10:17] recreational spots like the top ones you

[10:19] want to really compete in the market.

[10:20] One of the selling points is often how

[10:22] quick the cash outs are or not the cash

[10:24] outs but the withdrawals are. So if

[10:26] you're able to withdraw your money it

[10:28] usually hits your bank account pretty

[10:29] quickly. And in an instance like this it

[10:32] kind of came back to hurt them because

[10:33] they weren't able to stop a lot of these

[10:35] from happening. Like I said I we have a

[10:38] like an example with Rob's friend and

[10:40] some other people I've seen online able

[10:41] to get this into their account. that

[10:43] account's over because you're gonna have

[10:44] the negative balance. And as Bose said,

[10:47] you know, DraftKings probably gonna let

[10:49] that account see the light of day again.

[10:51] But you've made such a win here that you

[10:53] know, people who are down lifetime are

[10:55] now up a lot lifetime with some of these

[10:58] wages. So, absolutely, that was the

[10:59] right call. But a good lesson like like

[11:02] we've said here where

[11:05] you've got to make sure that money gets

[11:06] into your account as quick as possible

[11:08] in situations like this. And people are

[11:09] already privy to that with DraftKings.

[11:11] So perhaps somebody was involved in both

[11:13] a was was able to figure out what they

[11:15] had to do in this situation. We'll get

[11:17] >> By the way, there's there's going to be

[11:18] haters in the comment by the way that

[11:20] are saying that we're all encouraging

[11:22] doing like unethical things. Get the

[11:23] money out. That's not your money. But

[11:25] let's I I welcome those comments down

[11:27] there.

[11:28] >> You guys become friends with the sports

[11:30] books.

[11:30] >> I'll make it clear. I'm encouraging you

[11:32] to be unethical and take your money out

[11:33] of the account before they can stop you.

[11:36] I I also think that guy who tweeted out

[11:38] the look at this leaderboard odd like

[11:41] what a like disgrace or whatever. It's a

[11:44] good example. If you see the probability

[11:46] of one thing messed up, even if you

[11:48] can't take advantage of it, start

[11:50] looking around. Like that means that

[11:51] somewhere in the sim something else is

[11:53] messed up and you want to like

[11:54] immediately start to check every market,

[11:56] things like that. So that's like a good

[11:58] if you think something's wrong, even if

[12:00] you can't bet that market, see how it

[12:01] affects other markets.

[12:03] >> Good point there as well. We're going to

[12:05] get moving with the show in just a

[12:06] moment here. Before we do, want to

[12:08] remind you guys, if you're new to the

[12:09] channel, make sure you're subscribed. We

[12:11] appreciate each and every one of you

[12:13] that watch this show, especially the

[12:14] people that watch the show every week.

[12:16] But there are people out there who are

[12:17] watching who aren't subscribed yet. I'll

[12:19] forgive you. We can call it an honest

[12:20] mistake, but do me a favor and subscribe

[12:23] right now as we push for 22,000

[12:25] subscribers here on Circles Off. The

[12:27] larger the channel grows, the more

[12:28] content we can provide to you. We have a

[12:30] lot of exciting stuff coming up for you

[12:32] in the very near future as well. you're

[12:33] going to want to keep an eye on and it's

[12:35] easy to do that by being subscribed to

[12:38] the channel. Second piece of content on

[12:40] the show today, question if it if it's

[12:42] an end of an era. Fight ghost posted a

[12:45] long tweet here talking about how

[12:47] bookmaker very popular uh uh sports book

[12:51] in the sharp betting community showcased

[12:53] that bookmaker was refusing some of

[12:56] their action. Now, bookmaker is one of

[12:57] those places that takes the sharp

[12:59] action, is able to shape the lines based

[13:01] off of that sharp action, which is why

[13:03] sharp betterers enjoy using such a

[13:05] product, but they messaged fight_host

[13:09] here. Thanks for holding. Your time is

[13:10] greatly valid customer service here. The

[13:12] decision was made recently to no longer

[13:15] offer lines mentioned to any customers

[13:17] who are not considered to be

[13:19] recreational players. I apologize, but

[13:21] this means that until further notice, we

[13:23] will no longer be able to offer these

[13:25] markets to you. So, I don't know if this

[13:27] is a specific market necessarily or if

[13:30] it's a shift for bookmaker, but Porter,

[13:33] um, I'm sure you've got experience with

[13:35] bookmaker. Do you have any thoughts on

[13:36] this?

[13:37] >> Yeah, I mean, you know, usually when you

[13:39] see these kind of events, it's like very

[13:42] shocking and you're like kind of in

[13:44] denial, hard to accept, especially when

[13:45] something's been going on as long as

[13:47] bookmakers been kind of taking decent

[13:50] volume on sharp action. But like on

[13:52] previous shows that have been on, you

[13:54] know, people will say pinnacle is sharp.

[13:56] But then like underneath their breaths

[13:57] on another episode, people like, "Oh,

[13:59] Pinnacle's changed. Things have

[14:00] changed." They don't take as much

[14:01] action. Numbers, you know, open up

[14:04] later. And you kind of see this leak

[14:06] across other

[14:09] sharpish books. This is just kind of the

[14:12] industry changing. And some things last

[14:14] a long time, some things don't last as

[14:16] long. Obviously, bookmakers been around

[14:18] taking sharper action for a bit of time

[14:21] and so it's a little bit harder to

[14:22] swallow when you see something

[14:24] longstanding change, but the end of the

[14:27] day, it's just another another curveball

[14:30] being thrown to the sharp better that

[14:32] does make the ecosystem worse. But

[14:34] you'll see balance, you know, like I'm

[14:36] not saying I don't know who Fight Ghost

[14:37] is, but imagine he leaves the industry.

[14:39] Well, that would make lines softer

[14:41] somewhere else. So, you do see eb and

[14:43] flow of things changing. When you see

[14:45] something that looks horrifically bad,

[14:46] you should sometimes take a step back

[14:48] and think, well, something positive

[14:50] eventually probably might come out of

[14:52] this because at the end of the day,

[14:53] sports betting's still been around now,

[14:55] I don't know, 50, 50, 60 years.

[14:58] Moneyline spread started. It's changed

[15:01] over time. That's all. This is a

[15:02] negative change again to the industry.

[15:04] But I do believe,

[15:07] you know, this is kind of showing a

[15:09] beginning of the end to some of the

[15:11] sharp books just willfully taking a

[15:14] little bit sharper action. And by the

[15:16] way, this should kind of alert you to,

[15:18] hey, why is this book taking my action

[15:20] still anymore moving forward cuz it, you

[15:22] know, starts here, but usually this will

[15:24] climb to larger and larger markets over

[15:26] time.

[15:27] >> I do have to appreciate the fact that

[15:29] they were just very open about the

[15:31] message at least, not being super

[15:32] ambiguous about it. But uh definitely if

[15:34] you've been using this for a while the

[15:35] way it was it'd be annoying to see that

[15:37] sort of change. Kesh uh we'll go to you

[15:39] next. What are your what's your take on

[15:41] this? So this a totally unvalidated

[15:45] theory I have on this specific would be

[15:48] that uh I know through like thirdand a

[15:52] little bit of fight ghost and then

[15:54] reading some of the comments it appears

[15:56] they did a little bit of a sweep on like

[16:00] combat sport boxing UFC my thought

[16:04] process here which could be totally

[16:06] unvalidated is they wanted to weed out

[16:09] some people who they thought had what

[16:12] we'll call inside information and

[16:14] certain fights. Um or just connections

[16:17] to to camps and that being ahead of

[16:19] moves. Um so I I know Fight Ghost is a

[16:22] guy who gets some whispers from certain

[16:24] places. There were some people in the

[16:25] comments talking about MMA. Um so I

[16:29] think that in combination where it's

[16:32] like okay we don't want to be involved

[16:35] in in information markets per se. We

[16:39] want to be involved in, you know, the

[16:41] bigger liquidity sports where people are

[16:43] trading, people are modeling in that,

[16:44] whether it be NFL and that. We don't

[16:46] want to be as much in sports where

[16:48] there's a lot more um, you know, rumors

[16:50] that fixes are in, information trades at

[16:53] a big premium. So, my thought would be

[16:56] that they are I don't know if that

[16:58] downsizing is the word, but wanting to

[17:01] get out of the the fight game sharp

[17:04] business. uh especially because I know

[17:06] some other offshores especially take

[17:08] significantly higher limits on like UFC

[17:10] and stuff and that. So probably just a

[17:13] business decision to say okay we're you

[17:15] know like how Pinnacles can you know

[17:18] rolled it back in a number of sports but

[17:20] soccer they're still in a lot of cases

[17:21] you know big your game day NFL and that

[17:24] probably just a business decision from

[17:25] bookmaker to say okay we don't want to

[17:27] be the sharp MMA or boxing book uh you

[17:31] know line setting book anymore we're

[17:33] going to kind of get out of that

[17:34] business

[17:35] >> over to you Mike how do you feel about

[17:37] this

[17:39] >> uh call me Kirk Evans because I'm about

[17:41] to send Pierre for the sports book. I

[17:43] think that book maker if you're talking

[17:46] about like these odd markets that nobody

[17:48] is betting into like at that aren't that

[17:51] efficient and you're not getting a ton

[17:52] of action on these. I don't mind books

[17:55] saying hey we still want to offer this.

[17:57] It's a good product for the

[17:58] recreationals. We want to keep that

[17:59] wreck money coming in. We want to be

[18:01] able to offer lines to wrecks but we

[18:03] also don't want to get just killed by

[18:05] the sharps in these specific markets.

[18:07] You see this bet online does something

[18:08] similar where they're like, "Hey, you

[18:10] know, you can take a little bit of

[18:11] props, but we're going to limit you on

[18:12] that." And then, you know, all the other

[18:14] weird markets that we put up, if you're

[18:16] any good at them, we're going to limit

[18:17] you hard. But when it comes to like

[18:19] major sports and stuff, we're going to

[18:20] go ahead and let you take your chunk. I

[18:22] don't There's like this binary

[18:24] positioning we do with books. Oh,

[18:26] they're a sharp book. Oh, they're a soft

[18:27] book. There should be room kind of in

[18:30] the middle for, hey, we want to offer

[18:32] this to keep Rex on our platform because

[18:34] in the end, you want Rex on their

[18:36] platform. if you want to be betting into

[18:37] these places, but they also need to, you

[18:39] know, weigh that verse uh offering

[18:42] markets to everybody at all times. So,

[18:44] if I'm just like looking at it

[18:46] objectively from bookmaker also maybe

[18:48] factors in somewhat that they have some

[18:50] US plays and prime sports book and

[18:52] stuff. If you're trying to get investing

[18:54] and funding, being able to say, "Hey, we

[18:56] offer all these markets that nobody

[18:58] actually bets on is probably good." You

[19:00] see this? I mean, books love to talk

[19:01] about how many markets I have that I

[19:03] mean, nobody bets into. It's honestly I

[19:05] think sometimes it's just having extra

[19:07] markets up to say that you have them up.

[19:09] Um but I think that bookmaker I'm not

[19:12] going to give them too hard of a time

[19:13] because I think this is pretty

[19:15] reasonable uh depending on what markets

[19:18] that they're taking away.

[19:20] >> All right, great insight there. Would

[19:22] love to see some of the comments that

[19:24] some people have on this situation here.

[19:25] Maybe people who are sharper better

[19:28] Porter talked about how things are

[19:29] changing the shift in the industry kind

[19:31] of going on. maybe talk about the shifts

[19:33] that you've seen and the shifts that

[19:34] you're experiencing. Would love to get

[19:36] that sort of insight in the comment

[19:37] section down below and we can see where

[19:39] opinions may differ on something just

[19:42] like that. Next up on the show, we're

[19:46] going to go to this one from Alex

[19:48] Monahan who talked about bankroll

[19:50] management potentially being overrated.

[19:53] He called it overrated and said, "Most

[19:54] of y'all lose money gambling because

[19:57] you're asset gambling. How much you bet

[19:59] doesn't relate to that." So,

[20:03] Alex Monahan made his name in the

[20:05] industry with OddsJam, that tool, that

[20:07] product. And I think a lot of what kind

[20:11] of goes into odds jamming, as we'll call

[20:13] it, is bankroll management, but

[20:17] curious how what you think on this one,

[20:19] Mike. You're interested in this topic.

[20:21] He's right, but not to the subgroup that

[20:24] he's talking to. I if you're going to do

[20:27] the top down style, pick off the edges,

[20:30] try to get my as much volume as

[20:32] possible, hitting these lines that are

[20:33] uh off and you're doing that there is

[20:36] going to be like you know your bankroll

[20:38] management is going to largely it's

[20:41] going to impact your bankroll growth a

[20:42] ton uh because you know you're betting

[20:44] lower ROI so the margin of error is

[20:46] smaller. if you are betting other stuff,

[20:49] you know, I think that if you can't

[20:51] figure out bankroll management, like

[20:53] it's pretty intuitive to get pretty

[20:55] close on bankroll management. I'm not

[20:57] saying that you're going to have Kelly

[20:58] like memorize or anything like that, but

[21:00] it's pretty, you know, whether you're

[21:02] betting on a 5% edge or a 7% edge, those

[21:05] are actually like I found at least, it's

[21:08] pretty hard to exactly quantify unless

[21:09] you're doing some kind of top down which

[21:11] ones are which. So to me, if you aren't,

[21:15] you know, sharp enough that bankroll

[21:17] management eventually isn't a problem

[21:18] and you get to your limits anyways, then

[21:20] it's, you know, I don't think that

[21:22] bankroll management is many people's

[21:23] limiting factor to be honest. I think

[21:25] either you're going to be good enough

[21:27] that you beat the markets and then if

[21:28] you are, you can figure out the bankroll

[21:30] management in the end. Um, but I I just

[21:32] don't think that it's much of an issue

[21:35] for most people who are winning.

[21:37] >> Okay. Uh, how about Porter on this one?

[21:39] What's your take on this?

[21:40] >> Absolutely. So, I think what he's what

[21:43] he's doing here is a little bit of

[21:45] advertising,

[21:46] even though I know he's like sold Odds

[21:48] Jam or whatever, but effectively he's

[21:50] saying you when he's saying bankroll

[21:53] management is overrated, he's talking

[21:54] about the people not using odds jam

[21:57] because he's saying they're ass because

[21:58] they're basically not using top down

[22:01] method or whatever he thinks is good for

[22:02] betting. So, in reality though, he's

[22:05] 100% right. it this is like it's funny

[22:08] because so many of the lessons from

[22:09] poker uh which you know kind of predates

[22:13] the rush of sports betting getting

[22:14] famous are the same thing where people

[22:16] were like oh I play lower stakes I have

[22:18] a lot of units so you know it's safer

[22:21] I'm like no if you're like losing you

[22:23] know a big bet an hour like eventually

[22:24] you're going to go broke so the same

[22:26] thing happens in sports betting doesn't

[22:28] matter how I mean unless you're betting

[22:29] like pennies at a time but if you're

[22:31] betting like a one 2% of your bankroll

[22:34] which is considered like kind of

[22:35] standard For most beginners who are not

[22:38] doing anything advanced mathematically

[22:40] to figure out bankroll growth and risk,

[22:42] in reality, they're all going broke

[22:44] because their bets their ass. So even

[22:47] though I don't love to give Alex Monohan

[22:50] his like props, the statement itself is

[22:52] right, he's still just I think kind of

[22:54] advertising to use Odds Jam, but and if

[22:57] you don't, your ass isn't going to go

[22:59] broke anyway. Well, not to like, you

[23:01] know, give promo to Odds Jam, but if

[23:03] like you you generally are just coin

[23:04] flipping, don't know what you're doing.

[23:06] Odd odd jam does help in the early

[23:08] stages. It could at least help people

[23:10] who are clueless understand it a little

[23:12] bit.

[23:13] >> Yeah.

[23:13] >> Yeah. It could it could definitely point

[23:15] them in the right direction. So, I can

[23:17] kind of see what he's saying here. Uh

[23:19] Kesh like you might disagree something.

[23:21] >> Did Monahan delete his old account or

[23:24] did it get banned?

[23:27] >> I don't know. because this is a new

[23:32] account

[23:34] that he's tweeting from, not the old one

[23:38] where he created Odds Jam from. I should

[23:41] have maybe brought this up in the

[23:42] pre-show so we could have done that

[23:43] instead of doing research on the fly.

[23:45] But I noticed when because I went to

[23:47] look at this from his old account, he

[23:49] had me blocked who he used to spar when

[23:52] I was trolling Odds Jam. And now this is

[23:54] a new account that appears like he's

[23:58] no longer affiliated at all with any of

[24:02] the odds like sold in like

[24:04] >> this account has uh well it still has

[24:07] odd jam tagged in the

[24:10] >> in the bio

[24:11] >> like a rebrand though.

[24:13] >> Yeah, maybe this is more geared towards

[24:15] like personal sort of content rather

[24:18] than promoting odds gym.

[24:19] >> I think I think so. So, uh, cuz he's

[24:23] also been tweeted some more, uh, you

[24:24] know, inflammatory stuff that usually,

[24:26] you know, people are trying to do. So,

[24:28] Joey Kay's got a little bit of, uh, I

[24:31] never I wouldn't trust Monahan as far as

[24:32] I could throw him under any my opinion

[24:35] under any circumstances. So, uh, my, uh,

[24:38] you know, senses are up here. So, my

[24:41] guess is he's probably got some, you

[24:42] know, new

[24:44] >> product coming.

[24:44] >> Well, for sure there's a new venture

[24:46] he's selling to the lowest common

[24:48] denominator.

[24:50] it but you know he could be now that we

[24:53] figured out the missing at signal and

[24:54] we've gotten that uh mystery solved. I

[24:57] think like whether he's trying to sell

[24:59] something or not the point remains I if

[25:01] you are a winning sports better like it

[25:03] can change the way the number grows but

[25:06] if you are a winning sport it's never

[25:08] going to turn a negative into a positive

[25:09] bankroll management. So if you're

[25:11] betting at, you know, like Porter said

[25:12] when we were talking about poker, if

[25:14] you're losing at the game, whether you

[25:15] lose fast or lose slow, the numbers

[25:16] still negative. And if you're, it's the

[25:18] same with sports betting. Whether you

[25:20] win or whether you lose or whether you

[25:22] uh, you know, properly grow it in the

[25:25] most mathematical precise way possible

[25:27] or not, it's either going to be positive

[25:28] or negative based on if the bets are

[25:30] more likely to win than the uh odds you

[25:33] got them at. Well, to a certain extent

[25:35] because because if you you could be a

[25:38] winning better, but if you're if you're

[25:39] not funded enough, your bank your your

[25:41] your bankroll is not high enough, you

[25:44] could be a winning better and just

[25:45] suffer from variance at a certain stage

[25:47] because your bank

[25:47] >> that's more like a secondary that's more

[25:49] like a secondary problem, not like a

[25:51] root problem.

[25:52] >> Yeah, you could essentially run out of

[25:54] bankroll. You could do it. So, but to

[25:56] me, if you are winning at sports

[25:58] betting, it's very rarely you're also

[26:00] so, you know, like not in control of

[26:03] your actions that you're just going

[26:04] bust. Like you might not grow it at the

[26:06] best way. You might be losing spots

[26:08] because, oh, I bet too much early on and

[26:10] now my bank rolls like lower than it

[26:12] should be and I had to lower my unit

[26:13] size, things like that. But if you are

[26:16] going bust, you probably suck at

[26:17] betting. Anyways,

[26:19] >> okay. I mean, yeah, most of it, like I

[26:21] said, fair fair enough on the topic.

[26:23] Before we go to our next topic here, a

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[26:54] the exact same time. But back to the

[26:57] content here. Uh, we have one from Shane

[27:00] Trail who says, "As a sports better, if

[27:02] you're easily willing to chase a loss or

[27:04] place a bet solely based out of boredom,

[27:06] then your wager size is too small. There

[27:08] needs to be equilibrium that makes you

[27:10] care about losing the wager, which will

[27:12] inevitably make you a more responsible

[27:14] sports better." So, he's I'm going to

[27:17] paraphrase. He is essentially saying

[27:19] that in order to responsibly gamble, you

[27:22] need to bet more. That's kind of what I

[27:25] get here. We'll start we'll start with

[27:27] Mike on this one. What do you think?

[27:29] >> This is the dumb version of the man man

[27:31] point that he was trying to say earlier.

[27:32] The idea that well, if you just start

[27:34] betting large enough, then you'll care

[27:35] more and that's what will help you win.

[27:37] I mean, this is like saying, you know,

[27:38] if it becomes bad enough for your health

[27:41] that once you're eating a ton, it's

[27:43] going to really kill you. Then, you

[27:44] know, nobody has ever kept going past

[27:46] that point. it it's no just because you

[27:49] care more about the wagers that you're

[27:51] placing doesn't mean they're more likely

[27:52] to win. It comes down to actually being

[27:54] able to look at things objectively and

[27:56] no amount of want or like you know grit

[27:59] that he's talking about will help you

[28:00] with that thing. So I mean this is yeah

[28:02] it's pretty idiotic.

[28:04] >> In my experiences

[28:06] um when I've when I've ventured into

[28:10] larger wagers I feel more compelled to

[28:14] make a bad decision after the fact. Not

[28:16] necessarily saying I've I've made that

[28:18] bad decision, but if I make a a larger

[28:20] wager than normal because there's just a

[28:22] big edge and it just it loses. I feel

[28:24] much more compelled to try and get that

[28:26] money back. So, I feel like this is has

[28:29] an adverse effect in what he's

[28:30] portraying. Um, we'll go to you, Porter.

[28:32] What do you think? This is horrendous.

[28:35] This the the analogy for here is is

[28:38] drugs. Effectively, if you create your

[28:40] baseline a little bit higher, all of a

[28:44] sudden things will get better. Like

[28:47] what? This is this is really like fool's

[28:50] error. This is this is actually

[28:51] effectively this is not just adverse.

[28:54] This effectively guarantees

[28:56] that you will go broke and lose because

[28:59] all that's really going to happen is you

[29:01] will continuously raise your baseline

[29:04] higher and higher and higher. Why would

[29:06] it just like naturally stop at a at a

[29:08] certain Also, how does he really decide

[29:10] what the wager size is? Randomly saying

[29:12] this this is literally a one-way recipe

[29:16] to go broke.

[29:17] >> You're right. Drugs is drugs is a

[29:19] perfect analogy for that.

[29:20] >> Much better than the weight one I was

[29:21] trying to go with. Yeah, you guys, if

[29:23] you ever have a cocaine problem, just

[29:24] start going with more and more cocaine.

[29:27] Become too expensive and you won't have

[29:29] a problem anymore.

[29:30] >> Right. Uh can go ahead. Let me say Shane

[29:34] loyal hit the books listener in the

[29:36] chat. Love him. So got got to have his

[29:38] back here. I don't know what these nits

[29:40] are talking about. Um, I will say that

[29:45] it I I like Porter and to to kind of

[29:47] piggy back on Porter's point there where

[29:50] if how can I for like if I wanted to

[29:53] place a wager now at this point that

[29:56] would like get my, you know, heart rate

[29:59] up and the blood like it used to, I

[30:01] would have to bet not to be like, you

[30:04] know, I'm betting too big now, but I

[30:06] would have to bet on such like liquid

[30:10] markets.

[30:11] where I don't where I know for sure I

[30:14] don't have an edge that at some point

[30:16] yes it's going to go bad and I feel like

[30:18] you see that happen to people in this

[30:21] industry who have had edges at some

[30:23] point and then as you try and scale up

[30:26] if you still want that rush that feeling

[30:29] to measure it to your net worth or your

[30:31] bankroll you're going to have to start

[30:33] betting different things where you and

[30:35] where as your edge is decreasing um

[30:38] >> go ahead go ahead no cuz I also like a

[30:41] more logical if you're going to go this

[30:43] path like this type of comment. The more

[30:45] logical thing is just like work a little

[30:47] bit harder and find more edges. If you

[30:49] need the adrenaline or the rush, just go

[30:51] and find more plays. Don't create a

[30:54] formula to go broke.

[30:57] >> Yeah. If if you're not able to beat the

[30:59] market you're in, keep shifting down

[31:01] into markets that are easier and easier.

[31:03] Like Joey said, like if I wanted to get

[31:05] to the point where I'm like, "Hey, I

[31:07] really need to start caring about every

[31:08] win, whether it wins or loses, I'd start

[31:10] betting college football and get my ass

[31:11] kicked on game day." Like I sense like

[31:15] actually what you should be doing is,

[31:16] you know, trying to go when you start

[31:19] when you figure out you can't beat an

[31:21] area and holy [ __ ] I'm losing like in

[31:22] this spot now. I need to go into an area

[31:25] like go be the big fish in a little pond

[31:26] and beat up on the dummies.

[31:28] >> It's not perfect. It's not perfect, but

[31:30] almost like 100% better to reverse what

[31:34] he said would be better than than what

[31:36] he wrote. Literally like right say this.

[31:39] I'm not saying that's like a great

[31:40] solution, but it's definitely better

[31:41] than this solution.

[31:43] >> If you're easily willing to chase a

[31:44] loss, the responsible thing to do is bet

[31:46] less just in case.

[31:48] >> I will say I will say in in his defense,

[31:51] which I got it took me a minute to come

[31:52] up with one. There was a time where, you

[31:56] know, like 10, 15 years ago, if I just

[32:00] wanted to throw something on a game

[32:03] where, you know, I could throw like 10

[32:05] or 20 bucks just to give myself if I had

[32:08] no edge, no capping, not moving this or

[32:11] filling it for anybody, just this game's

[32:13] on, I'm going to throw a wager on it or

[32:15] a prop on it. that amount does increase

[32:20] as you get as you get like more you know

[32:23] like wealthier more like have more money

[32:25] into your disposal where nowadays if I

[32:28] have no I know I don't have an edge or

[32:30] something I'm going to throw like I'm

[32:32] watching you know I don't know some

[32:34] Olympic event or something it's at least

[32:36] a hundred bucks you know what I'm saying

[32:37] it's at least a hundred to just to click

[32:39] it that doesn't totally align with what

[32:41] he's saying but it's at least it's the

[32:43] best defense I can

[32:45] >> that doesn't prove his point at all.

[32:46] That just means you got more money.

[32:48] What?

[32:48] >> Yeah, that has nothing to do with this

[32:50] point. Nothing.

[32:53] I mean, look, I'm sure I'm sure to say

[32:56] it just didn't come across.

[32:57] >> If you're starting to chase your losses,

[32:59] as you know, the the key uh north star

[33:02] of the show once said,

[33:03] >> you lost your mojo, sit out a weekend.

[33:06] >> Yeah.

[33:07] >> Yeah.

[33:08] >> No, no. Increase your base, but more.

[33:10] >> There's there's definitely areas of life

[33:12] where adding jeopardy to the situation

[33:14] enhances your ability. Like in sports,

[33:15] you want to train with Jeopardy. That

[33:17] helps make you a better player, a better

[33:19] athlete. But when it comes to sports

[33:20] betting, I don't believe that's the

[33:22] case. And sure, I'll try and help you

[33:24] defend uh Kenishir with him, Kenir,

[33:26] because I'm sure he meant well, but like

[33:29] this is this is off base.

[33:31] The best way to avoid wanting to chase

[33:33] losses is building yourself up to a

[33:35] point where you trust you're going to

[33:36] win it back with the process you've

[33:38] built, not by

[33:40] >> not by betting more.

[33:42] >> Yeah. Uh, all right. We've got some uh

[33:45] some more interesting advice here. This

[33:48] one on the the industry of handicappers

[33:51] and people who sell picks because

[33:53] there's a bit of discontent for going at

[33:55] each other. Peter_421

[33:58] says, "I have a challenge for all

[33:59] cappers. Just mind your business. Stop

[34:02] talking about every stop talk about

[34:03] other cappers and what they do or might

[34:06] do wrong. Everyone is trying to get

[34:07] bread in some shape or form. But bottom

[34:09] line is stop pocket watching people. You

[34:12] look obsessed and weird. Mind your

[34:14] business. Another person added, Guap Z

[34:17] says, "As a capper, why are you dish Why

[34:19] are you dissing another capper? Focus on

[34:22] your own lane and clients. Never

[34:24] understood that [ __ ] I see it all the

[34:25] time up here. The main goal is to beat

[34:27] the books, not each other's head." Um,

[34:30] interesting take there. Obviously, we do

[34:32] a lot of uh I guess we'll call it

[34:34] bashing on a show like this and on this

[34:37] channel, but maybe do we need to stop

[34:40] Kesh?

[34:42] No.

[34:44] No. That's like that anyone that says

[34:47] that is in your typical like, oh, I had

[34:50] a losing run or I got I'm selling picks

[34:52] and I don't want to be criticized. That

[34:54] that's all it comes from.

[34:56] Yes, I get if someone's just posting on,

[34:58] you know, for fun on the timeline or any

[35:00] of that, okay? But in the majority, the

[35:03] vast majority of cases, this is someone

[35:06] that has a product to sell or is selling

[35:09] on [ __ ] Dub Club, any of those type of

[35:10] things that doesn't want to get

[35:12] criticized because one, that's how they

[35:16] probably fund their betting or two,

[35:18] that's how they're like making a living.

[35:19] So it's like, oh that's not good for

[35:21] business if we oh let's all just, you

[35:23] know, mind our own business.

[35:26] That's not life in any way. That's not

[35:29] politics, sports, movie, any genre.

[35:32] There is critique and there is

[35:34] accountability and there is the popular

[35:37] sphere, the public sentiment. So this

[35:39] whole like everybody just needs to mind

[35:41] their own business and no, that's not

[35:42] reality. That's not real life. And you

[35:44] know what? If you get if you suck, you

[35:46] should be called out for it. So, and if

[35:48] you can't take the heat, get out of the

[35:50] kitchen. If you don't want the ra, if

[35:52] you don't, all it has to do, if you

[35:54] don't like the I I can't take this, then

[35:56] stop posting plays or stop doing what

[35:58] you're doing.

[35:58] >> Uh, how about you, Mike? What's your

[36:00] take on this?

[36:01] >> Logging on to twitter.com and getting

[36:03] mad that people are dunking on you is

[36:06] like going to a Broadway show and being

[36:07] like, why the hell are they singing all

[36:08] the time in this? I don't understand.

[36:10] It's like going to a musical and not

[36:11] expecting someone to sing. That's what

[36:14] >> I've done that once. So, I went into the

[36:15] Joker movie and I was mad that they were

[36:17] singing at a movie that was branded as a

[36:19] musical. So, I guess it happens. Me,

[36:22] too.

[36:22] >> Yeah. It's just that's what the platform

[36:24] was made for. That's what it's going to

[36:26] be used. People are like, "Oh, just, you

[36:28] know, like what did you expect a bunch

[36:30] of people talking about gambling are

[36:32] going to do. You can't talk about nobody

[36:33] wants to talk about how you win. Nobody

[36:35] should talk about how others lose.

[36:36] Nobody wants to talk about sports

[36:38] specific stuff." It's like I don't

[36:39] understand what they think that people

[36:41] are going to talk about all day or what

[36:42] what you think you're going to get out

[36:44] of this platform back.

[36:45] >> Porter, anything to add?

[36:47] >> Yeah, this is way worse than what the

[36:49] bottom two screens are saying. I'm going

[36:50] to re-ransate what's actually written

[36:53] here. What he is saying is I steal from

[36:56] people. I affect people negatively.

[37:00] Don't criticize me cuz that's how I make

[37:03] money and that's okay. I learned that

[37:06] that it I learned like speaking for him

[37:09] that it's okay to do these things and by

[37:11] you criticizing me you are affect

[37:13] possibly affecting me probably not

[37:15] affecting them but probably helping them

[37:17] because the people don't understand

[37:19] what's really going on but the idea is

[37:21] we're trying to help people think we're

[37:23] criticizing no what's really happening

[37:26] is he is believing like either

[37:29] culturally or you know socioeconomically

[37:32] like that this is he might actually

[37:35] believe that this is okay. Now, the

[37:38] second person's comment is sort of

[37:39] disconnected from this. He doesn't

[37:41] really understand that the first person

[37:43] is literally saying, "I make people

[37:45] lose. I'm stealing money, but that's

[37:47] okay. That's how I learn to make money."

[37:50] The second person is disconnected. He

[37:51] actually thinks that the first person,

[37:54] Peter Forth, is talking about working

[37:56] together and beating up the books. He's

[37:58] not. He's talking about working against

[38:00] his clients, but pretending that he's

[38:02] working for his clients. Yeah, it's just

[38:05] I I'm really It just really pisses me

[38:07] off when people who sell pics think that

[38:11] they're operating like it it's not a

[38:13] standard business. Like if you sell like

[38:15] something that if you sell a product

[38:17] that is not just like a widely known

[38:19] like whether or not this is a good

[38:20] product. So something that's a little

[38:22] bit more confusing like like uh a good

[38:24] quality knife or uh a a wristwatch. Some

[38:27] of these like there are certain

[38:28] intricacies about your product that

[38:30] somebody who knows a lot about the

[38:32] industry will be able to pick out and

[38:33] say, "Okay, this is this is way

[38:35] overpriced. Like you shouldn't be buying

[38:36] this. This is an awful product that

[38:38] they're selling." That's not like

[38:41] attacking someone trying to make their

[38:42] money. That's trying to protect the

[38:44] people from spending their money on it.

[38:46] Like look, you can make your money in

[38:47] any way you want, but I think people are

[38:50] well within their right to question it

[38:52] and ask people who are purchasing that

[38:55] to question it and stop them from

[38:57] putting their money in something that

[38:58] look, I I don't expect these guys to be

[39:01] winning betters here. Go ahead.

[39:02] >> If if you were a financial adviser,

[39:04] imagine if your financial adviser was

[39:05] like, "Yo, we got to stop talking crap

[39:07] about other stock picks, bro. We got to

[39:09] figure out what stocks we're going to

[39:11] beat the market together." like you if

[39:13] you don't want people talking about the

[39:15] product that you're providing, it's

[39:16] typically a pretty big sign that your

[39:18] product sucks.

[39:19] >> Yes, absolutely. Um, anyways, on with

[39:23] the show here. Uh, I said earlier on in

[39:25] this show, as I was asking you to

[39:26] subscribe, I'll ask you again, but I did

[39:29] say that there's some exciting stuff

[39:30] coming to the circles off channel. We

[39:32] have a lot of stuff. We're putting in a

[39:33] lot of work. That's why we had the week

[39:35] off. We spent a lot of time working on

[39:37] potential new content for the channel.

[39:39] uh little bit of extra graphics. Lots of

[39:41] fun stuff coming. So, I implore you to

[39:43] get subscribed to the channel so you

[39:44] don't miss out on anything we have

[39:45] coming up. Don't have enough to tease it

[39:47] just yet, but that'll be coming very,

[39:49] very soon. Just know we're working very

[39:51] hard and bringing better content more

[39:53] often to you, the viewer or the listener

[39:55] here on the channel. Drop a like as well

[39:57] if you are enjoying so far. Let's get

[39:59] into some NBA talk here. Uh, we had this

[40:02] one from Tom Herstro who says, "The new

[40:07] 65game rule might deliver Cade

[40:09] Cunningham, the MVP in the NBA. SGA's

[40:13] abil eligibility is in jeopardy. We Luke

[40:16] and Joic on pace to be disqualified. I

[40:18] wrote about it here and he showcases a

[40:19] graphic here

[40:21] that has the percentage of games that

[40:24] the player has played based on the

[40:26] amount of games that their team has

[40:27] played and the amount of games that they

[40:28] have missed and then has used that

[40:31] percentage of games played to set a pace

[40:34] for the amount of games that they will

[40:35] play this season. And in doing so, he

[40:37] has revealed that Donic, Webbeyama, and

[40:40] Joic will not be able to hit the 65game

[40:43] mark. Sheay will only just hit it.

[40:46] Therefore, an extra injury could spell

[40:48] danger. Cade is the safe play because

[40:51] he's on pace for 73 games played. Now,

[40:54] interesting to use the data in such a

[40:57] way on percentage games played. What

[40:59] this data, and I'm I hope you guys agree

[41:02] with me, uh what this data does not

[41:04] account for is the players desire to hit

[41:07] 65 games and knowing that they must hit

[41:10] 65 games to be eligible for awards. I I

[41:12] I think that's the main problem here.

[41:14] like uh what do you have to say on it?

[41:16] No, that's not the main the main problem

[41:17] is like so I mean I went to visit my

[41:21] niece last weekend and she was at the

[41:24] rate she's growing like at this point

[41:26] I'm kind of worried she might be 70 foot

[41:28] tall by the time she grows up just based

[41:31] on you know she improved from this much

[41:33] and if you just take the growth from one

[41:35] point to the next it just applies on

[41:38] every single year she's going to be

[41:39] alive or like the problem is they missed

[41:42] a period of time due to a specific

[41:45] injury a large chunk of time that has no

[41:48] predictive value on the rest of I mean

[41:50] it has some like a very small percentage

[41:52] but if you miss a large like you miss

[41:55] games for injuries that are discreet

[41:58] chunks. So what if you miss 10 games for

[42:00] an injury for a hamstring and you know

[42:03] if you miss that and then you play 10

[42:04] games it doesn't mean you're more likely

[42:07] to play 50% of games moving forward. So

[42:10] these happen in these chunks and to

[42:12] project it over the course of the season

[42:14] makes no sense. Like even intuitively,

[42:16] one player, I think it's uh Joic there,

[42:19] he's missed I think every single one but

[42:21] one of the games was missed in the same

[42:22] stretch. So why would you use just the

[42:25] season pace to project out for the rest

[42:27] of the season? Why not use his pace of

[42:29] the last five games and he's going to

[42:30] play 100% of the games for the season?

[42:32] So I mean it's just it's horrible math.

[42:34] This Tom Habro used to be kind of smart.

[42:36] I think I think he was a pretty like

[42:38] decent stats guy uh for ESPN. Was pretty

[42:41] talented young guy and has just really

[42:43] kind of made worse and worse content as

[42:45] the years have gone on.

[42:46] >> All right, let's uh go to you Kenishh.

[42:48] You were in agreement there. Anything?

[42:50] >> Yeah, I mean there there is no like most

[42:52] of those guys on the list Donic and

[42:55] they're playing currently. So as PB

[42:58] saying like injuries aren't it's not a

[43:00] load manage. It's almost like he tried

[43:02] to make a load management extrapolation,

[43:06] but it's not a load management. Like

[43:08] you're either going to miss like, you

[43:10] know, two weeks with a, you know, a

[43:11] grade one hamstring strain or a sprained

[43:13] ankle or nothing. So it's not like I'm

[43:15] going to miss like, you know, every

[43:16] third game because of the pace I've been

[43:19] on for the year. Um, so with that said

[43:22] though,

[43:24] Detroit

[43:26] Kane Cunningham

[43:28] all we need at this SGAA. It's funny

[43:32] because there's a chance that the

[43:35] outcome of his data actually like the

[43:39] the the end statement of Cunningham

[43:42] occurs and then it comes back and said,

[43:44] "Oh no." where if Joic missed the game,

[43:47] this SGA, it's lingering a little bit

[43:49] and then who's to say who's the third

[43:52] choice. Also, I'm looking at around the

[43:54] odds today. A lot of people are getting

[43:56] on the Cunningham train. A a good way to

[43:58] frame how dumb this is is if you did

[44:00] this 10 games ago, Joic would be like he

[44:03] would have no chance of getting to the

[44:05] 82 games and Shay would be like a lot to

[44:07] get it. So 10 just 10 games a five games

[44:10] ago, Shay was like at you know one game

[44:12] miss. So that's just a point. He's

[44:15] picking one random point in time and

[44:16] using to extrapolate. Also, to be clear,

[44:19] if both of those guys miss, then our

[44:21] Lord and Savior, Victor Webeyama, would

[44:24] still get the MVP uh over top of them.

[44:27] So like I don't think that they're going

[44:28] to give the MVP to the eighth best

[44:30] player in basketball, but we'll see.

[44:32] >> Uh Porter, I haven't heard from you on

[44:33] this one, so why don't you go ahead. I

[44:36] went too late. The guys covered

[44:37] everything. This is complete garbage

[44:40] data in. So you got complete garbage

[44:43] info out. The best way to use this data

[44:47] is to just not look at it. This is

[44:50] literally tells you absolutely nothing.

[44:54] And this is like how other

[44:57] this this I thought this was I thought

[44:59] he was joking, but I realized Peanut

[45:02] Butter said that he was like a person

[45:03] through

[45:05] >> I don't know what this is. This this is

[45:06] this is nonsense. I mean he's worked

[45:08] he's got the Yahoo badge here. So Yeah,

[45:11] that's different usage of that word for

[45:13] this post.

[45:15] >> Check out uh if you look at the couchy

[45:17] activity, people started hammering KBS

[45:19] when this tweet came out. Like it really

[45:21] like

[45:22] >> that's the lesson to learn from here.

[45:23] That's the lesson. Let people move the

[45:25] guard.

[45:25] >> Find the people who move the markets

[45:28] with bad information and set

[45:30] notifications so that you notify.

[45:31] >> It's like everything has an edge.

[45:33] Everything has an edge. This completely

[45:35] worthless piece of data, a sharp person

[45:37] can take advantage of it. Not the way

[45:39] they think. So on to my the point I

[45:41] brought up is that you Dantic and Wemby

[45:43] at 64 and 63 in the position like

[45:45] they're just off the they're just off

[45:48] the quote unquote pace here. They are

[45:51] aware of this 65game mark as well that

[45:54] they need to hit. So WBY who you know

[45:58] does some load management time to time.

[46:00] They don't play him every single game

[46:01] but if he is about to lose out on the

[46:04] 65game mark they are not going to do

[46:07] that anymore. They are going to try and

[46:08] get him there because they know he might

[46:10] win. Well, he's going to win DPOI if he

[46:12] gets there. He might win MVP if he gets

[46:14] there.

[46:14] >> Yeah.

[46:15] >> No, for sure that's a component. That's

[46:16] a like a small component. But the the

[46:19] main component is data means not

[46:21] nothing. He's just picking a weird

[46:23] segment of time to make this data say

[46:25] whatever. Maybe he likes Detroit and

[46:28] wants this.

[46:29] Yeah,

[46:30] >> like what you said, Jacob, I think is a

[46:32] way a person who is doing it smartly

[46:34] could miss, be like, "Okay, you know,

[46:35] I'm projecting out these probabilities

[46:37] and you don't take into account that

[46:38] later in the season they might try more

[46:40] things like that." That's like a along

[46:41] the margins thing that actually is like

[46:43] could get missed. But his process is so

[46:45] bad in projecting it out, it's like, you

[46:47] know, having a bad paint job on a car

[46:49] that doesn't run,

[46:50] >> right? All right. So, maybe Cade not the

[46:54] right bet, unless you ask Joey Kish, of

[46:56] course. Um, that may not have been the

[46:59] worst tweet I saw last week because this

[47:01] tweet exists and to my surprise still

[47:04] existed when I went to go put together

[47:07] the show today. Um, Buddy HK so

[47:11] lightbeer69 burner account, but still.

[47:14] Um, unfortunately there was a tragedy in

[47:17] the NFL this week. Rond Del Moore sadly

[47:19] passed away at 25 years old.

[47:23] to honor him. Uh, this user posted rest

[47:27] easy brother with a photo of a jersey he

[47:30] bought because he won a same game parlay

[47:33] and he shows the ticket here, the

[47:35] screenshot of the same game parlay he

[47:37] had on Rico Dattle and Rond Del Moore to

[47:39] score a touchdown in the same game.

[47:44] This is his tribute to Rond Del Moore.

[47:47] Uh, wow.

[47:49] people. Let him know this is a pretty

[47:52] horrific way to go about trying to honor

[47:55] a player. Uh Mike, why don't you try to

[47:57] tackle this one first?

[47:59] >> I'm gonna tackle the part the, you know,

[48:00] the dark part that people don't want to

[48:02] talk about.

[48:03] >> The bet wasn't that good. It needs to be

[48:05] a better bet if that's how you're going

[48:06] to remember him.

[48:07] >> Yeah. that

[48:08] >> there was a player uh Steven Quan has

[48:11] had uh he made a play that has won me

[48:13] the amount of money that was very

[48:15] significant to me at the time and I will

[48:17] always remember him that even when he if

[48:19] he does you know god forbid something

[48:21] happens to him I'll always remember him

[48:22] through that bet but $20 plus 2100 odds

[48:26] it's just not big enough for him to

[48:28] remember

[48:28] >> not not to unit shame $450

[48:31] >> the odds are just as bad too it's like

[48:33] it's not that like you can hit a plus

[48:35] two like a 2100 bet that big like if he

[48:38] hit you know 100 to one maybe you can

[48:40] remember him this way but I just don't

[48:42] think that it's a good enough bet for

[48:43] him to do it.

[48:45] Go ahead, Kesh.

[48:47] >> You know, when I saw this slide, I said

[48:49] to myself, this is something that I

[48:52] thought would belong in the chopping

[48:54] block that if I recall, we voted to

[48:58] bring back this week. As one of our

[49:00] diehard fans said, he wanted the

[49:04] chopping block back and we were going to

[49:06] honor him with it. But it doesn't appear

[49:08] that the chopping block got reinstated

[49:11] this week against

[49:13] >> what was the vote was the vote two to

[49:16] one you and Mike against me

[49:18] >> process where the vote said yes we want

[49:20] it back and it wasn't included so I'm

[49:24] going to pretend this is a chopping

[49:25] block segment and uh that that'll be it

[49:27] for me.

[49:28] >> What you need to understand Kenishh is

[49:30] that there is a much larger thing going

[49:32] on behind the scenes that you could not

[49:34] possibly comprehend. That is why the

[49:36] chopping block cannot exist. I cannot go

[49:39] into detail live on air here, but just

[49:41] understand there is a very good reason

[49:43] why the chopping block doesn't exist.

[49:45] You're just going to have to trust me on

[49:47] this one. Uh, getting back to topic,

[49:50] Porter, uh, have your say on this one

[49:52] here.

[49:52] >> Oh, you guys left me a tough one. I

[49:54] think this is kind of a, as the guy

[49:56] wrote, rest easy, brother. I think this

[49:58] is a rest easy this segment, okay, on

[50:02] this on this topic. You know, if if we

[50:04] still did have the chop block, this

[50:05] would be good chopping block fod, but we

[50:07] don't we don't have it anymore.

[50:09] >> We'll be back next week.

[50:10] >> Yeah, we'll see. Uh, anyways, oh, we're

[50:13] having our fun here. Where you can also

[50:15] have some fun and get involved with the

[50:16] hammer community is with the Discord

[50:18] that we have at the Hammer Bag Network.

[50:20] Now, I know you already know about it,

[50:21] but if you're if you still aren't

[50:23] involved, then you are still missing

[50:25] out. We have nearly 1,800 members in the

[50:27] Discord. It's absolutely cooking. It's a

[50:28] place to chat during games, chat with

[50:30] our creators, where our creators are

[50:32] also sharing bets during games. You know

[50:33] what? A lot of our Hammer audience is

[50:35] sharing some banger bets as well. You

[50:37] can join us at discord.gg/hammer

[50:40] to see what you have been missing out

[50:42] on. The link is in the description to

[50:44] get involved with the Discord today. But

[50:47] we've arrived to the final piece on

[50:49] today's show. Uh, we have this one from

[50:51] Plus EV Analytics who showcases some of

[50:55] the power of AI, which we spoke about

[50:57] quite a bit on on this Friday's show,

[50:58] but Plus EV says, "Pretty cool to be

[51:00] living in a time where this exists.

[51:02] Would I bet anything blindly on AI

[51:04] recommendations?" Of course not. But

[51:05] with a thousand plus props on the board

[51:07] tonight, it helps me focus on areas to

[51:09] go deeper on. He showcases kind of where

[51:11] he's headed there. Porter, uh, because

[51:13] we haven't heard from you on this, how

[51:15] much does AI factor into your day-to-day

[51:18] from betting, if at all? So I I have

[51:22] tried what he's done many times with

[51:24] chatbt just for shits and giggles not

[51:27] really to like use it and you will see

[51:30] progress over the last 6 months. I still

[51:32] don't think this is that useful, but the

[51:35] change of what's coming is very obvious.

[51:37] And when people say

[51:40] using AI in sports betting, uh what they

[51:43] don't really mean using chat GBT to type

[51:46] these lines in cuz if you actually go

[51:47] through what's written here, it's kind

[51:49] of pretty low value. So, I know what

[51:51] he's trying to say is like, you know,

[51:53] look at the entire board and maybe this

[51:55] will give me direction. But the right

[51:57] way to use AI is you're supposed to like

[52:00] prompt Claude into writing code, not

[52:03] typing into chat GBT to give you this

[52:05] sentence that gives you an answer. So

[52:08] this isn't what it means to you. So for

[52:10] like the viewers that are thinking AI is

[52:13] coming to sports betting, it means

[52:16] coding with Claude. It doesn't mean type

[52:19] into chat GPT give me answer for best

[52:22] bet of tonight. And you know what? Maybe

[52:25] in like a year or two, you know, as this

[52:27] thing accelerates. It might be, but

[52:29] definitely today. It doesn't mean type

[52:32] into chat GBT give me answer for sports

[52:34] bet tonight. That is like to the penny

[52:38] by experience of when I was like first

[52:40] using some AI models. I was like, can I

[52:42] just put in here like oh like this stuff

[52:44] doesn't work. It's garbage. Like it

[52:47] didn't give me anything. So yes, I I

[52:49] agree there is like a a steep learning

[52:52] curve if you want to get like really

[52:54] good outcomes uh that that are a little

[52:56] bit more detailed than uh what our

[52:58] friend plus EV is doing there.

[53:00] >> I'll defend a bit here. It looks like

[53:02] he's putting in his projections to it

[53:04] and is just asking like based on the

[53:07] projections that he's made where is

[53:10] where is something he should target?

[53:12] Where are the possible targets in the

[53:14] market? I don't think he's he's just

[53:16] blindly said, "Where are the where are

[53:19] the winning bets today?" or something

[53:20] like that. I I don't think Plus CV would

[53:23] be that barbaric with it. Feels like it'

[53:25] be much more sophisticated. Um and like

[53:28] he says, not blindly betting on the

[53:30] recommendations. But Mike, do you have

[53:32] something to add?

[53:33] >> This is one of the worst uses of AI

[53:34] possible because not only is he pulling

[53:37] up these bets that he's pulling up like

[53:39] they're deter you could pull those up

[53:41] deterministically as good as you could.

[53:42] Like there's no need to use an AI thing

[53:44] to be like what's my biggest edge here.

[53:46] You could put a pivot table in Excel and

[53:48] look at it and like I just don't

[53:50] understand like the chatbt is doing

[53:52] nothing in that picture. Like the

[53:54] questions you can tell he's trying to

[53:55] have it answer are questions that you

[53:57] could like you could say hey have write

[54:00] me this script that pulls up my top

[54:01] biggest edges by rank and it would be so

[54:04] much more effective. It's just it's the

[54:05] wrong tool uh for what he's trying to do

[54:08] there. And it's like one, if you ever

[54:12] are using these AIs, one of the areas

[54:13] they like really mess up the most is

[54:15] trying to call things as far as numbers

[54:17] because they just make up numbers. Like

[54:18] it's just the wrong way to use the data

[54:21] uh pretty egregiously. And plus is a

[54:23] very smart guy and everything, you know,

[54:25] all caveats aside, but it's a terrible

[54:26] use of AI.

[54:27] >> I mean, I could see this working like in

[54:30] five years. Not not this like you cannot

[54:34] I I I've tried this actually. I've tried

[54:37] today. It just says nonsense. Even when

[54:40] you give it like projections, it'll like

[54:42] spit something out and then you

[54:43] literally type back, I didn't that's not

[54:45] in my projection. What are you talking

[54:46] about? Where did you get that? And I'm

[54:47] like, oh, you're right. I don't know

[54:49] where I got that, but let me delete

[54:50] that. Well, a major flaw with AI is that

[54:53] it it's it just it must provide you an

[54:56] answer. It cannot come back at you and

[54:58] say uh won't at least with the first

[55:01] prompt, it won't come back at you and

[55:03] say, I can't do this or I can't figure

[55:04] this out. It will manufacture an answer.

[55:07] If that means putting in falsified data,

[55:10] then it will do that.

[55:11] >> But it could be it could be the audience

[55:13] actually. Some people actually think

[55:14] this is what it means to use AI in

[55:16] sports betting. But from like people who

[55:19] sports bet at a higher tier, I've never

[55:22] heard of someone do it like this. It is

[55:24] meant like you code with Claude that

[55:27] helps you for information that you need,

[55:30] not punch in words and hope for final

[55:33] solution. in chat GBT

[55:35] >> even hallucinations aside like you have

[55:38] to ask things the right question or use

[55:41] the right process for them to work it

[55:42] reminds me of like when Google like have

[55:44] you ever watched have seen an old person

[55:46] use Google and they like ask the full

[55:48] typed out question and you're like no

[55:49] like just put two words that's what you

[55:51] want to like look up there it's like

[55:53] people don't know how to prompt it yet

[55:55] and it ar don't know like where it

[55:57] skills are and skills aren't so I yeah I

[56:00] just the way it's being used there

[56:02] >> yeah I think it's a pretty good point of

[56:04] like people in Google type in like send

[56:06] me recommendations for the best

[56:08] restaurants and then instead you could

[56:10] put

[56:11] >> I don't know Smashburger Toronto and

[56:14] it'll give me a list of the best places

[56:16] in Toronto something like that. Much

[56:17] more efficient that way.

[56:19] >> Scary because the people who are growing

[56:20] up now we're going to be like the people

[56:21] who learned it later in life. So like

[56:24] the people who are growing up with AI

[56:25] are just going to understand how to use

[56:26] it intuitively better than us. So in the

[56:28] end we're all going to be plus uh

[56:30] getting cooked by AI. Yeah, I think hey

[56:34] maybe that's the case. Give us your

[56:35] thoughts on AI and uh hey little teaser

[56:37] potential new content to show something

[56:39] we do want to cover a little bit

[56:40] extensively in the future is AI and

[56:42] sports betting. You just have to wait

[56:43] and see on something like that. Make

[56:44] sure you're subscribed to the channel so

[56:46] you never miss out on any content we

[56:47] have coming your way. Also make sure you

[56:49] drop a like if you enjoyed this edition

[56:51] of Circle Back. Thank you so much for

[56:53] watching. We will see you again next

[56:54] time.