All 48 teams embarking upon North America for this summer's 2026 FIFA World Cup have finally been decided following the final round of playoffs. And, just as there has been at the last two editions of the tournament, there will be one notable omission: Italy.
The four-time champions missed out on qualification in both 2018 and 2022, having been shockingly beaten in the qualifying playoffs, firstly by Sweden and then again by North Macedonia four years later. After a dismal qualifying campaign this time around in which the Azzurri were thumped home and away by Erling Haaland's Norway, Gennaro Gattuso's men were relegated to the playoffs once again. And just like the two times that came before, their hopes would end in tatters.
Italy Miss a Third Straight World Cup
All seemed to be going according to plan when Fiorentina striker Moise Kean gave Italy an early lead against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Sarajevo. Then, a red card on the stroke of half-time for Inter Milan defender Alessandro Bastoni changed the game. Throughout the second half, the hosts would pile on the pressure, and they were eventually rewarded 11 minutes before full-time, courtesy of substitute Haris Tabakovic's bundled finish.
The clash would then head to penalties, where Italian goalkeeper Gianluigi has so often been the hero. This time around, however, he was powerless to resist, with all four penalties he faced ultimately hitting the back of the net, while teammates Pio Esposito and Bryan Cristante missed their spot kicks, confirming the Bosnian win. The defeat ensures that Italy's wait to return to the storied World Cup stage will now extend into a 16th year by the time the next tournament rolls around in 2030.
But while the Azzurri won't be headed across the pond this summer, many certainly will be. We are going to take a look at two of them in depth, predicting their stage of elimination, and seeing if the bookies ultimately agree with us. Let's dive in.
Brazil: Quarterfinals
Brazil are the most successful team in the history of the World Cup, winning the competition five times throughout their storied past. However, the most recent of those came way back in 2002, and since then, it has been nothing but pain. The Selecao have exited four of the last five tournaments at the quarterfinal stage, and the one time they made it past the last-eight, they were destroyed 7-1 by Germany on home turf in Belo Horizonte.
Heading into 2026, the Brazilians are still looking for an identity under new boss Carlo Ancelotti. At 34 years of age and after a miserable run with injuries across the last four years, Neymar is no longer the answer. In fact, he probably won't even be included in Brazil's 26-man squad. As such, the pressure to deliver falls on the shoulders of winger Vinicius Jr., but he, too, has endured form issues in the Spanish capital this season.
Online betting sites list the Brazilians as contenders. One can bet on sports at Bovada, and the betting giant currently lists the Selecao as a 9/1 fourth-favorite behind Spain, France, and England. Should they top Group C and the Three Lions top Group L, then the two heavyweight nations would be on a collision course to meet in the quarterfinals in Miami in a repeat of the 2002 quarterfinal.
Back then, it was Brazil who progressed to the semifinals after Ronaldinho's stunning 40-yard free kick. Fast forward 24 years, and the two nations are on different trajectories. England are seemingly poised for a breakout after reaching each of the last two European Championship finals. The Selecao, meanwhile, are embroiled in a strange period of mediocrity, and it's those opposing directions that lead us to believe the English will prevail, knocking out the Brazilians at the quarterfinal stage at odds of 3/1 yet again.
United States: Round of 16
Had we been writing this article a couple of weeks ago, we'd have pegged the United States to reach the quarterfinals. However, their recent 5-1 drubbing in a friendly against Belgium in Atlanta has set alarm bells ringing.
The USMNT arguably has its finest ever squad. The likes of Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Timothy Weah, and Johnny Cardoso all regularly ply their trade with some of Europe's biggest clubs. That, coupled with raucous home support, should serve the Americans well, especially in a relatively weak group alongside Turkey, Australia, and Paraguay.
However, should they top Group B and Belgium top Group G, then the two sides will meet in the quarterfinals. This Red Devils team isn't the same team that beat the Stars and Stripes in Brazil 12 years ago. Names such as Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, and Jan Vertonghen are all long gone, while the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku will both be 34 by the time the tournament gets underway.
As such, we were predicting that this young and hungry USMNT side would have enough about it to progress to the quarterfinals, perhaps somewhat surprisingly. However, the recent 5-1 beatdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium proved that this American team has much work to do if they are to somehow beat the Belgians with the pressure on. We no longer think they're up to that task, and a Round of 16 exit at odds of 5/2 seems most likely.
