[00:00] The most important thing to remember about anybody who's selling picks is that if it was good, they would probably just bet it themselves and win money. >> You could have got this from chat GPT in 10 seconds. >> Yeah, this guy, he's just literally making up numbers, right? >> Nothing in 10 minutes has shown anyone how to calculate the true probability.

[00:17] >> Yeah, this is the new way to get rich. >> This is new. We're finally at the new way to get rich in sports betting. Here we go. >> We're going to be reacting to another sports betting content creator and their educational video because the last time we did on this channel, we had a lot of good feedback and people really enjoyed it. But instead of going to a specific

[00:38] creator, we're going to do a randomized wheel to see which creator we're going to react to. We have CEO of the Hammer, Rob Pizzola, professional sports better, and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Roseberman joining us for this one today. Rob, uh, you were here. We did the line maker sports episode. got a lot of good feedback and you want to do something like this again, but talk to

[00:58] us about the process for this one. >> Yeah, listen, it's to be candid, it's my favorite type of content to film. Uh because it's less work. I'm just getting to react, but also I get to see what's out there in the space right now. Um you know, at circles off, we don't have the following of a large the large majority of these content creators. We're talking 100k plus subs. So, what's being fed to

[01:20] the masses? And uh is it good or is it not? And uh in most of the reviews in the past, the reaction videos hasn't been good. So uh we'll see. We'll see what we get today. Isaac. >> Yeah, I'm excited. I know some of these. So uh it should be some juicy stuff. All right. So we're going to spin the wheel, get a random result, and I have a video ready for each of these eight creators

[01:40] that we're going to go to whichever person the wheel lands on. Here we go. Oh my god. Are you [laughter] >> Wow. >> Are you kidding me? >> We're just I mean I guess we're picking on this guy again. >> Well, you know, so I' I've done a couple of this guy before

[02:04] >> and um I I don't love doing these ones because he has a huge following and they they comment on the videos and they get pretty they get pretty animated. I got to say a lot of held comments, you know, people telling me where to go. I actually I will say I've seen a few of this guy's videos independently. Not going to lie, they're mostly hate watches. Um but uh and I actually do

[02:26] have a little bit of a a grudge with him because I have a friend who bought the pics or sort of bought the service. So I and obviously he lost. Uh so I have a little bit of a personal grudge against this guy. But uh you guys already did one. I I guess we'll go for it again. >> Yeah, I'm I'm stunned. [laughter] to I put enough that I thought it wouldn't happen again, but alas, uh, we

[02:47] have to be we we have to go with the wheel. We have to go with the randomizer. >> I I almost was going to say, let's not do it, but like >> we randomized. It's what we got. >> 126,000 subs. Wow. >> The new way to get rich sports betting in 2026. >> Uh, wow. All right,

[03:04] >> you guys ready to get started? He used up all the old ways. >> Let's do it. Let's do it. I mean, it's a good SEO uh tag for sure. For sure. I'm going to show you how you can get rich in sports betting this year in five easy steps. Let's get into it. Now, if you guys enjoy these videos, make sure you guys like and subscribe to the channel and also share so that way other people

[03:21] can actually get the right information on how to win in sports betting. So, the first thing that we're going to >> pause really quickly. I'm already torn up in the so that other people could get the right information on winning in sports betting. I I'll give this a chance. I have to give it a fair shot. I understand that. The previous videos I watched of this guy, he's absolutely not

[03:38] giving the right information. I think the most important thing to remember about anybody who's selling picks is that if it was good, they would probably just bet it themselves and win money, right? So, you should be incredibly skeptical of anybody who's advertising they can help you win big and especially if they're selling a service like this guy or sort of some sort of advising

[03:56] >> coaching or something like that. >> You should be very very skeptical and like just ask, well, why can't you do this yourself? >> Also, by the way, that includes us as well. everything that you see on the internet nowadays, you you should be a little bit skeptical at first, especially in sports betting. You know, people are selling products, they have

[04:12] sponsors or whatever. So, uh I would just say exercise a grain of caution with with whatever you're you're seeing on the internet. >> Did you notice that he's using the same postit extra large extra postit that GRP used at his BET Bash panel? >> Amazing. I like that as well. >> But that's like kind of his go-to, right, for the the videos.

[04:29] >> Well, he's used whiteboards, doesn't he? >> Oh, yeah. Maybe it was a whiteboard before. I don't know. I like the notepad little marker and notebook look >> focus on here when we want to make this year our best year yet is going to be stop betting teams. Okay, we're going to stop betting on teams to win. This is a huge thing when it comes to sports betting with a lot of people. They

[04:52] always want to know who's going to win the game. Okay, but I'm going to give you some factors of why we need to stop betting on teams on who's going to win the game. All right? Because this long-term doing it this way, you're not going to be profitable. You're just not going to long term. Trust me. Okay? I've been doing this for 10 plus years. So, the first reason,

[05:10] >> let's stop really quickly. So, we often hear and I I I talk about this a lot, right? Being price sensitive is very important. I So, it's it's a common phrase in sports betting to to not bet on teams, but to bet numbers. But, when you're saying stop betting on teams, I'm being a little bit nitpicky here. Stop betting teams to win. That would just be a moneyline bet.

[05:30] >> Yeah. >> And and you could easily place moneyline bets. >> Yeah. >> That are fine. You know what I'm getting at? >> I I do I I want to see more because I'm sort of in agreement with him for now. I mean, it's like these are money lines are generally the most efficient market.

[05:42] So, it's probably good for most people if they look for edges somewhere else. But let's let's see what he says. >> There's too many variables. All right. So when you are looking at one team, okay, there's too many players on that team to know exactly what the projection of every single player is with every single matchup that they're going against. It's too there's too many to be

[06:01] able to calculate every single player in every single matchup cuz that's how you would be able to see if a team is going to win or not. You cannot just go into there thinking this team's better than this team so that's why I'm going to play them. That is a losing strategy. You will not win long term thinking the better team is always going to win. That's not how it works. Okay? Just

[06:24] because the team is better than the other team does not mean they're going to beat them. Especially in professional sports cuz in professional sports, any team can beat any team. They're all professionals. And to seriously make money, you cannot just be out there thinking like, "Oh, let me just throw money on this team because they're the better team." Just can't.

[06:41] >> Okay. So far so good. Yeah. I I think that's fine. I I want to see where he was going with that as well. But um >> it's a lot of fluff, but yeah, >> exactly. And it's it's more geared towards a casual, right? Like if you played this for, I don't know, someone like Kirk Evans, he'd be like, "Well, what are you talking about?" You know, could project all the

[06:58] >> I do kind of I do kind of agree though, like as someone who focuses on tennis, one of the reasons is because it's hard to model, you know, like 10 people on each team, right? It's easier if it's one person. So, I actually pretty much agree with what he's saying so far for most people. Although, I really don't like how he writes in slants. >> Uh you know what? As someone who's

[07:14] filmed one of these videos recently using a board, is it hard to do? >> You you you end up writing on a fair end up going a little >> diagonal. Okay. Okay. Okay. Keep going. >> Tougher than it looks. >> There's too many variables to be able to calculate and get an exact probability if a team is going to beat another team. Now, going to what I was just saying,

[07:32] math you can't really use to predict a winner of a game. All right? You can't you can't stop. >> The only way that that >> What do you think about this? >> I I still want to see more because I I kind of agree with him a little bit. It's good advice for like 95% of people, but it's sort of like a skill issue thing where it's like, okay, you can't.

[07:52] He's saying a lot what you can't do, but none of this is getting at how are you actually going to win. So, that's what I'm curious about because right now he's I think it's a little generic. Like, I could be nitpicky, but I actually don't have >> I would also push back largely on you can't use math to predict the world. I agree. Like I I I would think that the

[08:09] vast majority of people that are betting into mark like moneyline markets as an example are using some form of let's say that have um credibility in that. >> Sure. Yeah. Yeah. I'm >> okay. Yeah. You know what? I'm I I like your vibe because you balance me out nicely. I'm I'm very much upset. I'm I'm looking to I'm looking to criticize, but so far I it's not I'm not too upset.

[08:31] >> Okay. All right. as possible is literally getting every single probability of every single player versus every single matchup and doing all the calculations correctly. And even when you do all of that, to mash them all together to know which side is going to have the advantage is nearly impossible. So, you just can't you can't use math to predict who's going to win

[08:51] an actual game. So, the best thing to do is just to lay off betting teams to win. And I know it's the most exciting thing to do and most people just love to have action on who's going to win the game, but this isn't how you're going to be able to profit and this is not how you're going to be able to be successful and really gain a bunch of money in the new year. Now, this is going to bring us

[09:11] to number two. Number two is going to be obviously the opposite of what I just said for number one there. What we're going to do is we're going to bet >> props >> on props. Now, a lot of people like to think, oh, like props are not what you want to do. you want to be able to pick the winner. You want to be able to pick the totals or whatnot. No, props is

[09:29] where you want to be at. And I'm going to show you exactly the reason why. For props, there's the complete opposite for teams. There's less variables. Hey, there's less variables. You got one player. You're betting a prop on one player and that's it. They're either going to do it or they're not. It's that simple. So, when that happens, what you can get on that player is a true

[09:49] probability. Okay? you can get a true probability percentage of whether that player is going to go under or over the certain prop just for what you can also take into account is the matchup. Okay. Now, to be successful with props, what you have to do is you have to be able to find that matchup edge within the prop that you're looking at and compare the true probability and the implied

[10:10] probability. So, the implied probability is the number the sports book gives you. Okay? So, let's say it's minus 200. Well, that's an implied probability of 66%. Now, the true probability is what's that that event actually going to happen? That's the percentage. Okay. >> Okay. Actually going to happen. >> So, a couple things. First of all, a lot of what he's saying is mostly correct.

[10:34] The two things that I'm curious about whether he touches on that I think are the big ones are are a the fact that props are less efficient and so there's more vig built in, right? And so sports books know that it's easier to win on props. So if you're sort of blindly betting, you're losing six to 7% as opposed to four to 5% for a money line. And then second, it's, you know, you do

[10:54] have to compare the true probability to the implied probability. But knowing that is not the important thing. It's figuring out how to actually get the true probability, which is where all the edge comes in. And so I think some stuff that I've seen from this guy in general, one of the things that happens is that a lot of people who watch these videos, they don't know that much about the math

[11:12] behind sports betting. And so they see him talking about things like true probability versus implied probability, which is true. You do need that as a prerequisite, but that alone is not going to get you to the point where you're winning because there's no actual actionable information that will provide any edge to the market. And so I'm curious if he like there's been no

[11:32] mention, right, of like market efficiency, right? So that you markets are good at pricing things, right? So the question is how not how you do this in the abstract, but how do you actually beat a market? >> Yeah. So again, we'll keep it going as well. Great points. I mean, I've done a few videos with this guy and he mentions that, I think, in every video of, you

[11:48] know, it's your true probability minus the implied probability. That's where your edge is. But you have to be able to come up with a decent true probability or else none of So presumably now he's going to talk about how you can find things with a true probability that are higher than the implied probability is what I guess is going to happen. >> Well, I'm guessing so, too. But like he

[12:07] he's getting into like you look at the matchups, right? Again, this is just like it's very simp. You you tell a better to look at the matchups. Well, what are they going to be doing differently than the other people who are betting into the >> people say this who like the sports books know this, right? Like it's not the sports books know, but like the

[12:22] market price reflects the average like of what people think. And so the idea that it's like, oh, this team has played well against that team in the past. Everybody else knows that, right? So like you're the idea that you can just look and say, oh, this is a good matchup. It's almost always going to be priced in. But let's let's keep going. I want to see what he goes through next.

[12:39] When we're looking at that true probability, for example, let's say our true probability on a play that we're looking at, a prop that we're looking at is 76%. That gives us right there plus 10%. Okay, that's what you're looking for. You're looking for that type of play. That's what you're looking for when it comes to props. You can't do this with teams. Okay, you could do this

[12:58] with props, though. So, that is where you could zone in. And this is where you're going to actually be able to make money consistently and actually get predictable income every single month to where you can actually stack it. >> So, first of all, I really don't like when people say income when predictable income. Yeah, I don't like that. So, once again, he actually is right that

[13:18] you're much more likely to find a big edge on props than you are money on. It's a much less efficient market. But he's just like, "Oh, yeah, we're going to find, you know, a 60% prob implied probability with where it actually happens 76% of the time." Like, incredible, right? If you could find that, you know, you could you you' be a billionaire within a few weeks, right?

[13:34] You just keep rolling it over and stack that edge on top of each other. The hard part is how do you actually identify something with a 76% implied probability or true probability that's priced atus 200. >> Yeah. So far, I think we're 5 minutes in here. It's very theoretical. I think good points. You're better off focusing on props than you are major market sides

[13:52] and totals. Um, you know, yes, you you got you got to find you got to find an edge. your true probability is got to be higher than your implied if you could find 76. >> I want to I really want to see how he's getting the 76% where it's coming from. So, let's keep going. >> Rather than just hoping that you're going to win and that right there is a

[14:10] losing strategy because there is no hope. You have to make it happen. Okay. Then another thing with props is you have >> more options. True. >> Okay. You got more options. >> So in pretty much a slate of games, let's say there's five NFL games on. Well, you only have if you're picking the team, you got what? five games,

[14:28] right? But with props, you have plenty of options within just one game of plays that are going to have a good matchup, the true probability going against the implied probability that's going to give you an edge. Okay? You have way more options there rather than just picking who's going to win the game or the total over and under. Now, if you guys want to fast forward through all this and you

[14:48] guys want the best plays that come from every single [laughter] strategy that I have made over the last 10 years, make sure you guys click the link in the description. Now, let's get to number three here. Number three is going to be everybody's favorite. Okay, we're going to talk about parlays. So, parlays, there's ones that you can do and there's ones that you should absolutely never

[15:05] do. Okay, so parlays, most people like to bet five, six teams. They mash them all together and they chuck and prey. That's pretty much how it goes. Okay, that's not what you want to do here. All right, so what we're going to do is we're going to avoid those random parlays, which is your seven legs, eight legs, those type of plays. Okay, you just want to avoid those type. You don't

[15:27] want to do those whatsoever. The reason why you don't want to do those is because when you're putting a bunch of plays together, the percentage of you actually getting every single one drastically drops the more legs that you put into that mix. Okay? It drastically drops. So, for example, and I've seen this so many times in sports betting, and I'm sure you guys have, too, is

[15:49] online, on Twitter, what, whatever, you'll see posts of people putting touchdown parlays where they put five or six together and they put down $10 and they win $10,000. That never happens. Okay. And when it does, that person will be betting $10. >> Is he just gonna parlay some chalk favorites? Is that gonna be the What do you think? I think. Okay, so the the

[16:11] title of this video >> was something about how to how the new way to get rich sports betting in 2026. >> So we are like close to halfway through here. If he was to suggest avoiding parlays altogether, I think that would be good advice for the average person. We know what the hold is on course. Of course, >> but if if we're going to get into like

[16:33] reduce the amount of parlay, like two to three legs, stuff like that, >> he seems he's like don't do this. So, he's going to go into here's the kind of parlays you should bet. And given that he's like, don't parlay all these things that are not going to hit. It seems like it's going to be a oh, parlay a bunch of things that are all going to happen, which like yeah, once again, that would

[16:51] be great if you could find that in a way where the true probability is better than the implied probability. But, okay, keep going. >> I'm actually interested to see where this one's going to go. >> Plays the rest of their life and never hit that play ever again. The reason being is because the percentage of each play that they put together is like 10

[17:08] 15%. Then you wedge them all together, you're getting like 0.02% chance of winning math, but the implied odds versus true probability are always negative. They are always negative. >> Not necessarily, but avoid. >> We're nitpicking, but yeah, generally is good. >> Yeah. Listen, you could you could find seven leg parlays, eight leg, eight leg

[17:28] parlays that are plus EV. Yeah. It's it's going to be more rare. Uh certainly, but you know, they're not always >> people people misunderstand a parlay. All it does is it automatically rolls over your steak, right? So, if all of the legs are good, the parlay is going to be really good. The reason that the whole

[17:45] >> not even all of your legs, you know, like if if your legs are if the good legs are better than the bad legs are bad, but the reason the seven eight leg parlays are bad is because it effectively makes you bet more and you're betting more on worse bets, which is why the hold goes up, right? which is why sports books on a six or seven leg parlay on average they win 30 cents for

[18:04] every dollar whereas in a two-leg parlay they're going to win like 10 cents right you're just stacking bad edges so but once again we're being nitpicky so let's see what his parlay winning strategy is on >> dumb parlays you don't want to do dumb parlay now what you want to do now what is a smart parlay a smart parlay is when you have two or three legs that have 90%

[18:26] true probability of winning okay then you've put together a parlay that's actually going to give you a plus edge. It's not going to give you a negative edge. Okay? But again, this has to line up with going back to keep going for a minute. Okay? Where they need to have the matchup and it needs to have that true probability needs to be a plus side. Okay. Now, how you get that again

[18:50] is matchup and having the true probability on your side. And then >> are you are you getting rattled by the way he talks? I >> like that. It's got to be like a true side and this is like there's no >> Yeah, it's tricky because like some of what he's saying makes sense and is sort of right. And I think this is why these videos are in my opinion sometimes like

[19:11] more dangerous because this guy is saying a lot of things that are right and are good advice for beginners. But to go back to the video title, right? He's giving us all sorts of things not to do, but the ways that he's saying to actually win are just not true. So I mean he's going to get into this but like >> two to three legs each with a 90%

[19:30] probability true probability. First of all it doesn't matter if they're 90% true probability matters relative to the price. Exactly. >> Right. So it's like okay% is - 900 for for those that don't understand. So he's saying you you want to find bets that you think are at least should be priced at at least -900. >> Yeah. And then he doesn't mention

[19:51] comparing them to the actual >> but and he's like going back and forth because he's saying like okay you want to comply to the compare to the implied probability but then he like it's just like oh find these things are we talking about the same game parley are we talking independent events how like where is once again where is the edge coming from but let's keep going I want

[20:08] to see where where >> once you have two or three 90% or more and you wedge them all together now you've given yourself to hit a parlay that's two or three legs you've given yourself most likely if they're all like 90%. around that 75 to 80% mark of that actually being >> not that this is nitpicky. It's unlike >> I mean it's like 0.9 to the three which

[20:31] is like what 73% 75% so it's not 85 to 90 unless they're or 75 to 80 unless they're correlated but that's being nitpicky so keep going. >> Most likely are going to be like minus 200 or - 250. So that's going to give you a plus. >> Okay, pause pause. Okay. So, we're just like, okay, the strategy is we're taking two to three things, each which have a

[20:48] 90% true probability, which means that together they're going to win like 75% of the time. But when we do that, somehow magically the odds are only going to be minus 200. Like, how does that happen? If you if you parlay three - 900s, it's going to be about -300 in general. But he's just like, no, it's going to be -200. Like, where are these numbers coming from? He's just pulling

[21:10] them out of his ass. >> It's literally just random numbers. What also is would be very what what's missing so far from this >> is how you arrive at the 90% exact probability plays like are you just taking random - 900s -100s and assuming that those are good like there there's >> it's fine to say all this again in theory but the the real way that you're

[21:37] going to figure out how to put together a plus EV parlay is being able to figure out >> the true possibility easier to identify all sorts of things that are that you shouldn't do in sports betting than it is to actually figure out things that work. And so far, this video has been 90% him saying don't do these things, which is like mostly accurate, and then

[21:54] saying do this, but he's saying do this without actually giving you any real info on how to do it. But let's Okay, keep keep going, Jacob. >> That's a smart parlay. A stupid parlay is what I explained up here is where you just put a bunch of >> So smart or stupid is just about the number of legs. I mean, big favorites. Okay. Yeah, fair.

[22:12] Continue. True. Okay. Even though you see it so much on social media, it's never going to happen for you. >> But if you [snorts] stop doing that and you do it the smart way, well, guess what? The smart way, you're going to win more. And people aren't even going to believe that you're actually winning on parlays. But when you explain to them exactly what I just explained to you is

[22:32] you're giving yourself the best opportunity to win. Okay? Because when you put two to three legs together at 90% true probability of piece, that right there is going to set yourself up for long-term success. Now, before we get to step four, >> see, again, what's really bothering me here, this is what really gets me about all these videos. He he very he always

[22:50] talks about your edge is true probability minus implied probability. True probability being what you make, the price, implied being what the sports book is offering. That entire section, he does not mention implied probability once. He just says to find three two to three where the true probabil but if it's being priced like they're 95% and you're betting ones that are 90% you're

[23:13] you're you're still betting as he calls it a stupid parlay. >> Yeah. I forget if it was the one that you guys reviewed but I remember another video I think it was by this guy that was like the bet that hits 80% of the time. And it's like if the bet is priced at minus 900. It doesn't matter if it hits 80% of the time. The whole point is all of this stuff is relative to what

[23:30] the market is pricing it at. And there's just not really a recognition of that or understanding how this guy or this system is going to price something better than the market. But what the hell is step four? Let's see. >> Step one and two I can give a pass. >> Yeah. >> Step three sucked. >> Yeah. Also

[23:45] >> absolute trash. >> Yeah. Step. Okay. Let's >> He just like wasn't even really saying anything. >> That's the thing. This is also why I'm frustrated. Like this is a long He's kind of just not saying anything. >> That entire step three. He didn't really say he doesn't know how to explain the concept, but he doesn't know what he's

[23:58] doing. It kind of like I can understand if you didn't know much about betting, especially betting math, which to be clear, a lot of people don't. Not through like a personal failing. Like most people just haven't spent tons of time studying sports betting math, but like I could see how you would sort of learn from this and then think, oh, because he's right on this, then the

[24:15] further things he's saying are true. When in reality, he's at like, you know, step two on the ladder. You got to be at like step 10 to actually start winning. >> Well, that's exactly it. But let's say you're just an average person. You've watched so far. You're like, "Okay, no more major markets. Fine. >> I'm moving to props. Fine. Totally get that. I'm getting away from the big time

[24:34] parlays and now I'm getting a bunch of big favorites and putting them into two to three game parlays. Who's that helping right now?" >> Yeah. All of this is like all Okay, so this person is going to be a little bit more discerning and still lose it like six to seven%. Like exactly. Okay, so let's keep going. >> I want to cover one thing most people

[24:48] ask me and in the comments you'll see this when I post certain things is how are you able to profit like this long term? Because if you're taking odds that are -20, -300, you know, if you're in that realm, how do you profit long-term? Well, I'm about to show you exactly how that's possible. All right, so for example, what we're going to do here is we're

[25:11] going to say that you have 10 cards. All right, we got 10 cards. Eight of those cards have something written on them. Okay, two of them don't. And what we're going to say here is what you're going to do is you're going to wager $100. Okay. And if you pick a card that has something written on it, you're going to get $50. So you're going to get $150 in total. Okay. So if we do this 10 times,

[25:35] let's say over the course of 10 times here, we pick a card. Out of those, look, it's eight. Eight of those cards have something written on 200 bucks. >> All right. So we're going to write down what happens here. So the first time we're going to say pull a card, it's got something written on it. Second time, got it again. Third time, got it again. Fourth time you didn't. Fifth time, got

[25:53] it again. Six time again. Seven, you're on a roll now. Eight. Like I said, you're on a roll. Wait, now you've lost one. And then 10, you got it again. All right, we're going to say this is what happens over the course of you doing it 10 times. Now, let's go ahead and add up how much money you've made here. Okay, it's 100 there, 100 there, 100 there, 50, 100 there. So, you've made 1 2 3

[26:14] 400. You made $400, but you've lost twice. You lost $200. But how much money have you made? You have made $200 being able. Yeah, this guy, he's just literally making up numbers, right? Like that's like it's like saying, "Oh, you know what? If we played a game of dice where if you guess one through six correctly, I'm going to 8x your money." It's like, yeah, this would be a great

[26:34] game if you [laughter] could. And so to his first question, like, oh, how can you profit on a minus 200 or minus 300? I don't even like betting favorites, but it's very simple. As he already outlined in this video, if the true probability is greater than the implied probability, that's great. This example, like >> it's just explaining that further. It's explaining it further and it's like,

[26:51] okay, once again, he's talking about this idea where he's going to find all these bets that have a greater true probability than implied probability, but he's just pulling numbers, but there's literally nothing about how you can actually identify those bets. I mean, like I I could make up these numbers, too. Why, you know, why not just make it you win 200 every time and

[27:09] you lose 50? Like, he's just literally making up numbers. There's no there's not coming from anywhere. >> I hate when people do the examples like this. I think there's a backwards example. So in this example, what he's trying to say, and in my opinion, doing very poorly for an average person, is that the true probability is 80%. >> Yeah.

[27:25] >> And you're betting in a minus 200, which is 66.7%. Great. If you keep doing that, that's going to win. But he's just made up a random example. And for most people, they don't know how to calculate the true probability. So for them, out of the 10 cards, it might actually only be five or six. They they've not handicapped it properly. Instead, I like

[27:42] I like using examples that are like dice. six-sided dice, right? >> And if uh if Isaac, I came to you and I said, I want to bet that you're not going to roll an even number. >> So, you have a 50% chance, but I'm going to give you plus 120. You're going to be like, I'm going to take that, >> of course.

[27:57] >> Right. I think that is way easier to under understand the actual true probability as opposed to like just making up arbitrarily you're going to be able to identify it. Maybe he gets to it at some point. So, let's let's keep going. >> And only getting $50 back because why? You have a true probability of 80% here. >> Sure. Because eight of those cards have

[28:16] something written down on it. So out of the 10 pulls, you've literally pulled 80%. >> But how do you get the 80%? >> Made $200. >> How does someone find the 80%. The way to make money is to have a goose that lays golden eggs. >> Same thing applies here with minus300. It's just the amount of money that you

[28:33] make in profit would go down. >> Okay? It would just be a little bit less. But again, you're still profiting. And you just do this and replicate this over and over and over and your unit size is going to correlate to how much money you make because this is the only way to beat sports betting and to actually make a substantial of money from sports betting. Any other way

[28:54] you're going to be chasing and you're just going to be gambling. This isn't gamb gambling. This is calculated risk. Okay? Calculated risk is the percentages are on my side. Okay? I have an edge. I'm just going to keep multiplying that edge over time and giving myself even more and more money. Now, let's get to number four. Number four is what I just, >> you know, number four. Am I confused?

[29:15] >> I don't know. He's calculating edge, right? But like he's not actually calculating edge. He's just making up edge. And once again, we talked about this at the beginning. >> He's like, "Okay, the more money that you have." No, he just didn't actually number this slide. It was just an example. Yeah. Um, the more money you have, the more you will make if you are

[29:32] betting good bets. That is true, right? Because obviously, you know, your return is going to be a percentage in terms of whatever the EV is. But once again, his own logic, if you could just identify all of these, you could just grow your money very, very quickly. If you're betting things with 80% implied probability, >> you don't need anything in this video.

[29:48] >> Yeah, it doesn't matter how [laughter] this guy, like why, once again, just very simple, why would this guy be selling this strategy for whatever it is, 20 bucks, 50 bucks a month? If any of this was right, he could literally be a billionaire by the end of the year by just rolling over his money. It just it like you people, you have to question like when someone is selling something

[30:05] to you, why couldn't they just do it themselves? But I I'm I'm I get really rattled watching these because it's built around this entire premise of you gota you got to be able to calculate what your edges and if your true probability is more than your implied probability then you have an edge and you're making plus EV bets and whatever but there's no nothing in 10 minutes has

[30:27] shown anyone how to calculate the true probability. Most bers [ __ ] suck at calculating true probability. It's why they lose. They have no idea that the price matters on the game. They have no idea how to price it. So now you're just telling someone who already doesn't know how to win. They're they're watching this video and being like, "Oh, you just take your true probability. You subtract

[30:46] it from the sports." Well, these guys can't estimate the true probability in the first place. >> Let's see what number four is. >> Now, let's get to number four. Number four is going to correlate what I just talked about. Okay? Long-term. Because long-term, you never bet negative edge. Never. Because longterm, if you're betting a negative edge, you're going to

[31:03] lose money. [laughter] Just like how in the casinos if you're playing blackjack and the house edge is 5% or whatever on the table, well that's a negative 5% edge. So if you're sitting there for 3 days straight, that edge is going to catch up to you >> on those hands that you play and you're eventually just going to start losing drained out.

[31:21] >> That's what a negative edge is and that's what it does. Same thing with sports betting if you're betting a negative edge. So what is a negative edge? It's just the opposite of what you implied probability. Okay. And your true probability is negative a negative%. So if our implied probability is 66%, but our true probability is 55%. That gives us a 11% edge. And guess what? That

[31:44] multiplied long-term is going to absolutely shred your bankroll. So never bet negative edge because if you're going with negative edge, just think long term you're going to drain your bankroll and you're going to lose. The way to eat healthy, don't eat McDonald's. A negative edge. A negative edge is the same thing, same concept in casinos where all the table games, all

[32:04] the slot machines have a negative edge. So long term, you can never >> We'll go really quickly here. I love that. Like it's it's telling people like you'll live longer if you don't smoke cigarettes. But in this instance, the again the better the average better has no clue what when they're making a bet. Even the above average better calculating true probability is very is

[32:26] very difficult. >> No matter what market is props, whatever it is, most betterers that I know, friends of mine that are casuals, if I asked them to calculate a true probability, I said, "What's the true probability of, you know, Scotty Barnes going over 6 and a half rebounds tonight?" They'd probably go to the last 10 games Scotty Barnes played, they'd be

[32:43] like, "He went over seven of these, it's 70%." Like, that's not real. Again, we're we're in 11 minute mark here. You could have got this from chat GPT in 10 seconds. >> Yeah, I there's a lot of fluff. Let's Let's finish it off. >> Yeah. 14 minutes. Two. Three more minutes to go. >> Almost done.

[32:59] >> This felt like an hour. >> Now, once you're able to find plus edge on every single play, you're focusing on props. You're getting rid of betting on teams. You've got your unit size established. You've created your edge. And now you're just multiplying that long term. This is the last step now. Okay? because this is a little bit different than past, okay? In the past,

[33:22] sports books, okay, would ban you, okay? And they still will, but there's better options now. Okay? You can still stick with your major sports books and whatnot and still wager the same way that you need to wager prediction, which would be your unit size correlating with your bankroll. Okay? So, again, bankroll is your amount of money. Your unit size is going to be your percentage of that

[33:46] bankroll. All right? So if you have 50,000 as a bankroll, your unit size should be anywhere from 500 to 1,500, which is 1 to 3%. Okay, this is how we would keep this going. Okay, but now in the sports books, you will eventually get limited or banned betting higher unit sizes. That's just what's going to happen. All right, but now new age, we got some peer-to-peer sports books to

[34:11] work with. Okay. Peer-to-peer sports books mean you're going against other people, not necessarily just going against strictly the sports book to where they will ban you. As peer-to-peer, they won't ban you. >> I I think this is the 2026 element, the new way to get this new. We're finally at the new way to get rich in sports betting,

[34:30] >> which which is going to be to prediction markets where I mean, a lot of the counterparties are probably going to be better than you. the entire like prediction markets to the degree that they are truly peer-to-peer, it's all about people being able to price things differently than others, right? So this whole thing about the implied probability, the true probability, a

[34:48] prediction market is a game of who can identify the true probability. And this video has given you zero help in terms of actually pricing anything that like you can watch this, okay, you have a little bit better idea of what the math is that you might need, but it's not going to give you any edge. And I guess that's why we have to pay whatever 50 bucks a month to to figure out. But

[35:08] okay, >> you don't want to get a co We should get a coaching session done. No, >> by this guy. >> Let's see. Let's see if he could coach us up on how to win more money. Let's finish it off. Let's finish it off. >> That consists of you guys might have seen commercials for it, but Khi, that's one. Okay, Poly Market is another one.

[35:25] These are ones that you can use now and not get limited. And this is how you can create this year to be the most money you've ever made in sports betting because you're not going to get limited at these markets. Okay? As long as there's other people betting the other side, you're going to take their money. Okay? All you're going to do is just take all the money that comes in on the

[35:44] opposite side of people betting negative edge. Okay? And you can wager as much money as you want because it all depends on how much money is in the pool on the bet that you're looking at. All right? So, you could still bet at the sports books like normal whether you're unit size, okay? But you will eventually get limited or banned. It's just going to happen. Okay? It's going to happen

[36:04] regardless. They're getting more and more strict as time goes on. >> We're going to see what happens when it when it comes to that because now they're going up against markets like this to where the sports books are going to have to do is they're going to have to lift the bans and limits. They're going to have to because if they don't, they're going to get run out of business

[36:21] by these guys. >> Don't agree. >> Okay? It's going to be that simple. So again, this is how you're going to be able to make the most amount of money this year because now we're going to be able to see whether the sports books are going to be able to lift the the bands and the limits or we're just going to come all the way down here. Instead of

[36:39] sports books, we're going peerto-peer and now we're being able to wager as much as we want without worrying about is the end of the video. >> That's how you're going to get rich using sports betting. this. >> So, it looks like it feels like he kind of had the same the same message he's had in a lot of other videos. >> I think Yeah.

[36:56] >> being Well, now you can go to do this on prediction markets as well. >> Yes. And and and once again, >> if this was the case, prediction markets don't ban people. >> Yeah. >> Why isn't he just doing this on prediction markets? And once again, these are markets. If everybody if if you have a winning strategy and you're

[37:13] sharing it and everybody figures it out, the market is going to iron that out. the idea like who is he taking the money from on prediction markets and if it's so easy that to just do this and make all this money with his you know 10 15% edges like why is he not just going to prediction markets and doing that why would he sell it for 50 bucks a month it just doesn't make any sense I mean the

[37:30] answer the answer is that because this doesn't work that is why >> listen at the end of the I'm I'm a big uh I'm a big proponent for prediction markets I I have been anyone who's been watching the channel for a long time um I like having more markets to be able to bet into stuff where it actually might be harder price where you you might actually have a fighting chance in some

[37:50] of the the particular markets. With that said, like he's he's he's got into the limiting side of things like, oh, sports books are not going to be able to compete compete anymore. I mean, sports books are not limiting 50% of the you the user base. The clientele mostly lo Exactly. So, at the end of the day, that has nothing to do >> I you know what I was hoping when the

[38:09] wheel was spinning, we might get something new. >> I'm like, maybe we'll get a good one this time. also sort of once again nitpicking, but like he's saying telling you to bet props like the prop liquidity on prediction markets is like really not there. There's like not that there's like not that many opport Yeah.

[38:32] >> You place a hundred bets at a sports book and you place them all for $1,000. What are the odds that your account is getting limited? >> I don't know him well enough. >> Okay. Okay. Followup follow-up question. Is this guy coin flipping or is he directionally correct? I because I would bet a very very large sum of money that his bets or this strategy is losing long

[38:54] term. But do you think he's losing less than the VIG or if is he losing exactly the VIG? >> I don't know for sure. My guess and this is a hypothesis. I'm sure that uh we're going to get some some people who watch this linemaker sports channel religiously that tell me where to go and that I'm off. I don't think he explains a lot of these concepts with what seems

[39:14] like a experience or or depth of knowledge. A lot of this almost seems like it could have even been AI generated and he kind of just follows that type of script. >> It's almost like it kind of it's it reminds me of like old odds jam videos minus the odds screen where like what they would do is for a lot of people who didn't

[39:35] understand betting at all and I was one of those people. It's like, oh, here's how you identify an edge. And it would look at sort of discrepancies in prices. And then it would say, okay, here's your edge. You're going to bet it and make money. And he's doing the basic math to be like, you need the positive edge, the plus edge, and don't bet the negative edges. Yeah, great. But there's no

[39:52] actual part on how you're identifying it, whether it's, you know, bottom up and you're building a model or, you know, top down where you're looking at price discrepancies across sports books. No, there's no way in there's no nothing in this video that tells you actually how to find things that are better like the where the true probability is higher than the implied probability.

[40:10] >> I've seen uh three videos I've watched three videos of his now on this channel and I've probably seen a couple others so far. I would say just my opinion based off of watching those. Anyone who is not a winning better currently that watches one of these videos will not become a winning better. it's not going to change anything for them. Second thing I would say is in some of those

[40:33] videos, I think it would actually make them worse. >> Well, I think the the one of the dangers is thinking you know what you're doing when you don't. Like there is no problem with betting and being like, "Oh, I'm, you know, probably going to lose money in the long run. I'm having some fun." But if you go in thinking, "Oh, all of these are like really good bets. I'm

[40:49] going to make money." And then your strategy doesn't work. That is going to put you on tilt. That's going to result in you chasing losses because you actually think you have an edge. And that's why like even though you know the second video you guys have done on this guy so I feel a little bit bad picking on him like I actually know someone who bought these picks lost money and it's

[41:06] just like that is what frustrates me is that people are spending their money on this and they're getting overconfident when there's you know they're they're not their bets are just the same and that actually I think is very dangerous when people overestimate their abilities and to wait I just want to make one more thing clear like winning at sports betting is not indicative of any like

[41:24] moral goodness like okay you spent the time to figure out how to win. You're smart enough to figure out how to win. Doesn't make you a good person. And but like when you think you're winning when you're not, you're just so much more likely to get into so much more trouble. >> Well, I I I these are these generic strategy videos or whatever. This is just a whole like the the previous one I

[41:41] watched, which was you're referring to was, you know, I'm hitting 80% in the NF in NFL running back props doing this. And then I watched that video and it's it's almost like spitting in someone's face. to think that the way that that video was presented would would have any possibility of winning in the market. So, it's based off that video where I'm like, I don't think this guy can

[42:01] originate to win. Now, the re the reality is the barrier to winning in sports betting is it's actually really easy. Like, again, >> it's easy. It's easy if you're just like scanning off prices. Exactly. If you're if you're picking off sports books that are the wrong prices, but if you're trying what this guy picking off those numbers, it clues you into what it takes

[42:21] to win >> to to do what this guy is doing and like originate fair prices and not line shop, right? So, let's say you log on to whatever sports book or prediction market and that's the only price that you have and you have to bet into that market. That is a really hard thing to do that I think even of like all people who win on sports betting, maybe only

[42:41] 10% can win like only betting at one sports book, which is like there's nothing in this video about price shopping or figuring off numbers. So, you have to just come up with your own numbers from the get- go. That is an incredibly difficult thing to do. And yeah, like he's just pulling the numbers like, oh, we're just going to, you know, find the 80% true probability that's

[42:57] priced at minus 200. It's like, yeah, great. If those grew on trees, first of all, you should be rich. Second of all, presumably everybody else could find them, too. It just doesn't it doesn't make any sense. >> Yeah. I I think there's there's two there there's more than two distinct styles of sports betting, but you have your top down and your bottom up, right?

[43:13] So, your top down is a very very simple way for anyone to win at sports betting because you're using the the market prices as as your northstar and you're just finding stuff that's offmarket essentially. It's a little bit more complex than that, but you could teach top down betting to anyone. >> And to those who don't understand, basically he's like, if every sports

[43:36] book has it at, you know, minus 110, but one sports book has it at plus 105, you say, okay, this one has a different price, therefore it's probably wrong and it's probably a good one, >> right? Or if or if the sharp sports books are at this price and and the recreational ones are, >> but the whole point is you're looking at various sports book prices to figure out

[43:50] which price is wrong, right? >> And you can teach anyone that that they don't have to know sports. They don't have to know anything. Jacob learned that in the early going when when he was with Bet Stamp and and that's easy. The opposite side of that is very hard. The origination side where you're you know for some people would be handicapping the board. For some it would be modeling

[44:09] or whatever. But when you're creating your own price or just like looking at the price in the market and saying I like this side or whatever, very few people win at that. He he talks about coming up with a true probability several times in in this. But the the va the reality is that the vast majority of people can't do that. They just simply can't. You know, when you go and place a

[44:31] bet with a sports book, yes, technically you're placing it with the sports book, but you're betting into a marketplace that is being shaped by other bers as well. So when you have a lot of sophisticated money coming into the market, people who are doing this for a living, mathematicians, you know, statistical analysts, people who know the sport inside and out and how to

[44:51] price games, you're still betting against them. Even when you're betting into a sports book, it may not be peer-to-peer like a prediction market, but in a sense, it kind of is. And this oversimplifies it to like all you got to do is is make sure your true probability is more than your implied. Well, how do you do that? No, I mean it's really really hard. really hard. You know, I

[45:10] can do it for a couple sports. I but I can't do it for basketball and I've tried many times. I tried for golf and I can't do that. It's it's hard to do. So, to me, there's nothing of substance in this video. I think it's a complete waste of time. And uh it might lead people down the wrong path where they're like, "Yeah, I just I just got to >> make my own prices." I'll say I think it

[45:34] could lead people down the right path in terms of there is a lot of information in this that for a novice better will be new and is good. The problem is it takes you to the point of knowing and being able to identify certain parts of the math but it doesn't get you to the point where you can actually find positive EV and the problem is that it very more likely than that it's going to just

[45:56] teach people to be overconfident when they actually have no edge at all. >> Agreed. Well said guys. That's it for the video. If you enjoyed, hit the like button. Do you want to get information with actual subs? Since we recommend subscribing to this channel here, circles off. We do tons of great content to make you better sports betterers. We'll see you again next time.