[00:00] Welcome into circles off. I'm Rob

[00:01] Pizzola today. Joined by fellow sharp

[00:04] better Isaac Rose Berman. Made it across

[00:07] the border.

[00:07] >> Thank you for having me. Happy to be

[00:09] here.

[00:09] >> Yeah. You know, we're uh getting a lot

[00:11] of a lot of people wanting us to do more

[00:14] Q&A stuff. So, uh a few weeks back uh

[00:16] had Kirk Evans in studio and uh we were

[00:20] going to do a Q&A and uh I made it very

[00:22] clear I'm I'm a man of transparency. I

[00:25] didn't like a lot of the questions that

[00:27] got sent in. So what I had done was I

[00:29] took our last full year of comments on

[00:31] this channel, uploaded it to chat GPT.

[00:35] So I'd come up with a 10 Q&A questions

[00:37] that would be really helpful for this

[00:39] type of audience. Was a big hit. Got

[00:41] good views, got good listenership, got

[00:42] good comments, got great feedback. So I

[00:45] said, "Let's do it once more.

[00:46] >> Run it back."

[00:47] >> So we're running it back. 10 new AI

[00:51] generated questions

[00:54] and we're going to go from there.

[00:55] >> Perfect. Looking forward to it.

[00:56] >> All right. Here

[00:59] we go.

[01:01] >> Number one, what's more dangerous?

[01:05] Overconfidence in sports betting or

[01:07] underconfidence in sports betting?

[01:10] I think it's pretty clearly

[01:12] overconfidence, especially just be

[01:15] realistic here, like 98% of people lose

[01:17] money betting on sports. And so if you

[01:19] are placing bets that are going to lose

[01:21] in the long run, you almost certainly

[01:23] can't be underconfident. But you

[01:25] definitely can be overconfident. I think

[01:26] if you refine it to people who are

[01:28] winning, it's probably close to 5050. Um

[01:32] because then you could be hurt by sort

[01:34] of not betting enough, but it's hard to

[01:37] go broke if you're underconident. And so

[01:39] I kind of think it depends like on your

[01:41] utility function where if you're someone

[01:44] who's like really young, you're really

[01:46] risk-taking, you're sort of like you

[01:47] kind of want to maybe strike it big or

[01:50] and you don't really care if you lose

[01:51] most of your bankroll, then

[01:53] underconfidence can hurt you. But if

[01:54] you're someone who's maybe more

[01:55] established, maybe you have a family,

[01:57] then it makes a lot more sense that

[01:58] you'd want to be cautious. So, I think

[01:59] it just depends a lot on your stage of

[02:01] life.

[02:01] >> Yeah, I agree with you. I I think both

[02:03] kill betterers, but in different ways.

[02:06] And with the way that the the question

[02:07] is worded in terms of what's more

[02:09] dangerous, I think the most dangerous

[02:11] aspect of betting would be going bust

[02:14] and that is going to happen with

[02:15] overconfidence. I will share a personal

[02:17] experience of mine when I first went

[02:19] from having no edge to actually having

[02:21] an edge. And um I remember my first year

[02:24] originating hockey at like full scale

[02:27] working with real movers and stuff like

[02:29] that. I had a 15% ROI on NHL sides, but

[02:34] I was not confident because I had a uh a

[02:38] vast history of losing in sports

[02:40] betting. So it was hard for me to be

[02:42] like, ah, I've flicked the switch and

[02:43] and if I could go back in time, uh that

[02:46] cost me a lot of money and cost me

[02:48] bankroll growth in the early going. But

[02:50] the alternative could have easily been,

[02:53] yeah, I I didn't have a great edge. I'm

[02:55] betting too much and then I'm right back

[02:56] to where I started.

[02:57] >> I think it depends also like the type of

[02:59] market that you're betting in terms of

[03:01] whether or not your edge is really

[03:02] quantifiable. Like if you're betting

[03:04] into a liquid market, even if you have a

[03:05] high edge, like you never really know.

[03:07] Whereas, let's say you're taking

[03:09] advantage of, you know, price

[03:11] discrepancies or like an obvious mistake

[03:13] in a market where it's like, okay, if

[03:15] every book is at, you know, plus 200 and

[03:17] you're betting something that's like

[03:18] plus 350 because it's way off market,

[03:20] then yeah, obviously it's, you know,

[03:22] good to be confident when you can really

[03:24] know the edge for sure, then it's

[03:25] probably more dangerous to be

[03:27] underconfident. But that's pretty rare.

[03:28] >> Yeah, I think chat GPT gave us a

[03:30] softball uh softball to start us off

[03:33] there. I I have seen these uh before the

[03:35] show. it's going to get a little bit

[03:37] more challenging. Uh, question number

[03:38] two,

[03:39] >> what's the hardest skill to develop in

[03:42] betting?

[03:43] >> I think thinking probabilistically.

[03:46] It's sort of a prerequisite for being a

[03:48] winning gambler or a good gambler or

[03:51] frankly I think just a generally good

[03:53] smart person

[03:54] >> and it is something that is very

[03:56] difficult to develop for a lot of

[03:58] people. And so there are other things

[04:01] where, you know, maybe it's a little bit

[04:03] trickier, but like if you can't do this,

[04:05] you're cooked. Like you're there, you

[04:06] have no chance. And I think there's

[04:08] something that for a lot of people, they

[04:11] just can't do it. Like I know incredibly

[04:12] intelligent people who just cannot not

[04:15] think not be resultsoriented. Like they

[04:18] just there's they can't think that, oh,

[04:20] this had an 80% chance of winning, like

[04:22] therefore it was a good bet. They're

[04:24] just like you only see what actually

[04:26] happened. And I think I don't know maybe

[04:27] it's just like something that's a little

[04:29] bit innate where you just get that. Um

[04:31] but for a lot of people it's really

[04:33] difficult.

[04:33] >> This this is a tough one to answer and

[04:35] uh I think there's a lot of uh different

[04:38] answers that could be applicable here.

[04:39] What I did is I kind of went through my

[04:41] betting history and um skills that I

[04:43] thought were easy to learn versus ones

[04:46] that were more challenging. And I think

[04:49] technical skills are way easier to learn

[04:52] than psychological ones. So for example

[04:56] learning Python coding right nowadays

[04:59] especially with claude AI and like all

[05:02] that it it's not a huge barrier to

[05:05] overcome like buil building data uh

[05:08] pulling data building a a regression

[05:10] model like they're challenging don't get

[05:13] me wrong but there's so much assistance

[05:15] that you can have nowadays in building

[05:17] that stuff out whereas very few can like

[05:21] stick to bankroll management avoid like

[05:24] you tell

[05:24] >> avoiding avoiding tilting is probably

[05:26] the biggest one. Yeah. Or I think like I

[05:28] forget who it was who said it, but the

[05:30] way they put it was being able to go to

[05:32] bed a loser.

[05:34] >> Y

[05:34] >> like it took a really long time and

[05:36] sometimes you know still struggle with

[05:38] that but like the ability you lose a

[05:39] bunch of bets to not stay up chasing not

[05:42] till that's really difficult.

[05:43] >> Yeah. So, I I'm going to this a cop out

[05:46] because it's going to be large, but I

[05:47] think psychological

[05:49] um traits are very hard to develop in

[05:51] sports betting because it's just it's

[05:53] easier said than done. Um betting is

[05:56] addicting for one. It is natural when

[05:59] you lose to try to win it back. And I I

[06:02] know people and I was one of those

[06:04] people where you know in your head like

[06:07] I should not bet at this moment. I'm r

[06:10] you know I'm tilting. Yeah. I'm, you

[06:12] know, I would say always say I'm in

[06:13] orbit is what I used to say. And um you

[06:16] still make those same mistakes and it t

[06:18] it unfortunately takes like a long time.

[06:20] >> Yeah. You have to it's one of those

[06:21] difficult things because I almost feel

[06:23] like you have to learn it via doing it

[06:24] and like you have to make those mistakes

[06:26] and as I sort of in a similar place as

[06:28] someone who's made a lot of those

[06:30] mistakes in the past. It's like I don't

[06:32] I wouldn't want anybody else to go

[06:33] through that, right?

[06:34] >> Um but at the same time I don't think

[06:36] you really internalize it until you know

[06:38] you just you you make those mistakes.

[06:40] you [ __ ] up.

[06:41] >> Yep. Totally. Number three, what's the

[06:44] most common way that semi sharp

[06:46] betterers sabotage themselves? Um, how

[06:50] would we define semi sharp? I I think

[06:52] like people who are winning, but it's

[06:54] not their full-time job or maybe they're

[06:57] not making a huge amount of money.

[06:59] >> Um, and I think it's just not either

[07:02] being fully transparent with themselves

[07:04] about what they're getting from betting

[07:06] both financial and otherwise. I think

[07:08] like I know a lot of people who are net

[07:11] winners sports betting like they are up

[07:13] lifetime or they're from now on forward

[07:15] profitable but it's very difficult for

[07:17] them to kind of either scale up and the

[07:20] result is that they spend huge amounts

[07:22] of time and mental energy betting and

[07:24] trying to get better at betting without

[07:26] actually that much financial return

[07:28] right and it like encroaches on other

[07:30] areas of their life and I know this like

[07:32] people who are very very smart

[07:33] successful individuals and I'm just like

[07:35] oh you would be better off if you spend

[07:38] the, you know, 10, 15, 20 hours a week

[07:40] that you're spending betting and

[07:41] thinking about betting and doing

[07:43] something else, doing something else

[07:44] because, you know, when you average it

[07:45] out, maybe you're making, you know, 15,

[07:46] 20 bucks an hour or whatever. And like

[07:48] your time would just be better spent

[07:49] doing something else. Now, if you enjoy

[07:51] it, obviously totally fine, but I think

[07:52] a lot of people once you figure out how

[07:54] to win, but not necessarily like to the

[07:57] point where it's your life and you're

[07:59] making a ton of money or whatever, which

[08:00] is the vast majority of people um who

[08:03] can win, they're not making huge

[08:04] amounts. I think a lot of them aren't

[08:06] totally honest with themselves about

[08:07] what they're actually getting from this

[08:09] and whether or not the time and energy

[08:11] that they're putting into betting is

[08:12] really worthwhile.

[08:13] >> Yeah, I like that answer. I' I've uh I

[08:15] found this one particularly challenging

[08:17] to come up with an answer with and I'm

[08:20] just relating this to people that I know

[08:21] who are semi-sharp. Um I often find that

[08:26] they don't focus enough on what they're

[08:29] really good at. And once you go from

[08:31] like losing to winning, it's easy to try

[08:33] to expand out into a million things at

[08:35] once. But a lot of those things just end

[08:38] up being negative ROI. And uh it almost

[08:41] becomes trying to take on too much at

[08:43] once. I guess you could like put a

[08:45] little bit of ego in there as well

[08:47] naturally. But it's uh it's tough. I I

[08:50] just see personally from people around

[08:52] me who uh I would consider semi-sharp. I

[08:55] consider them sharp in certain things.

[08:59] >> Yeah. and recreational in others.

[09:01] >> Yeah.

[09:02] >> And whether that's, you know, that

[09:03] applies to a larger scale, I'm not quite

[09:05] sure, but that's just my own personal

[09:07] experience with it.

[09:07] >> Yeah, I agree with that.

[09:08] >> All right. Number four.

[09:11] >> Does the average person overestimate how

[09:14] predictable sports actually are?

[09:17] >> I think they they underestimate it and

[09:19] they overestimate it. So, I think both

[09:20] are true. So, you have some people who

[09:23] are like, "Oh, it's completely random.

[09:26] There's no way you can predict." And you

[09:27] know like spreads and money lines are

[09:29] pretty accurate right obviously it's not

[09:31] like you know a team is a three-point

[09:32] favorite they're going to win by three

[09:33] points every time but that is the

[09:34] distribution they are accurate at the

[09:36] same time then you have some people who

[09:38] are like oh it's rigged not realizing

[09:39] that there's a massive distribution of

[09:40] outcomes so I think it's less that

[09:42] people underestimate or overestimate it

[09:45] and going back to the previous thing

[09:46] they they just don't really think

[09:48] probabilistically and they don't

[09:49] understand how distributions work right

[09:51] they don't get that something can have

[09:54] you know a mean of 20 a median of 25 or

[09:57] whatever and within one standard

[09:59] deviation, you know, or like 30% of the

[10:01] time it can be, you know, 30 or 50% more

[10:03] or less than that, right? They just

[10:04] don't understand that that the

[10:06] distribution of outcomes present for

[10:08] something.

[10:09] >> I think that the average fan massively

[10:12] overrates

[10:14] um actually, let me see how this was

[10:16] worded again. Yeah. Overestimates how

[10:19] predictable that they are. Think think

[10:21] about how modern sports media is built.

[10:26] Yeah.

[10:26] >> And the reactions to one game, right?

[10:28] Like I I I very rarely give my opinions

[10:32] on games anymore because the average

[10:34] person would be like, "Who is this

[10:36] idiot? What are they talking about?" But

[10:37] like I I watch a hockey playoff series,

[10:39] seven games.

[10:40] >> And I'll be like,

[10:42] >> you know, one team upsets the other and

[10:45] the fan base that was favorites is like,

[10:47] "Oh, we got to blow it up. We got to do

[10:48] this and we got to do that." And it's

[10:50] like they just they they just played

[10:52] seven games which are randomly

[10:54] influenced. It's hard when you're

[10:55] dealing with small sample sizes.

[10:56] >> There's tons of variance in sports and

[10:59] uh like NFL favorites are going to lose

[11:02] roughly 35 to 40% of the time, but the

[11:06] average fan thinks that the better team

[11:08] should win in every game. So to me, um

[11:13] yeah, I I I think that I I I think

[11:18] >> I don't think the average person

[11:19] understands variance.

[11:20] >> Yeah, I was going to say, yeah, they

[11:21] they don't Yeah, they don't understand

[11:22] variance and randomness. I think that's

[11:24] that's the thing. It's not that they

[11:25] necessarily underestimate or

[11:26] overestimate, but they just don't that's

[11:27] a better way of saying what I was

[11:28] saying. They don't understand randomness

[11:29] and how it works.

[11:30] >> Yeah. Which to be clear, I'll give a

[11:31] shout out. One of my favorite books is

[11:33] called Fooled by Randomness, right? N

[11:34] seem to guy's kind of crazy, but

[11:36] >> that's one of his favorite books.

[11:37] >> It's one of my favorite books, Fooled by

[11:38] Randomness. All about how people don't

[11:40] understand randomness and sort of all

[11:42] sorts of examples like that. Um, but

[11:44] yeah, it's a really difficult thing to

[11:46] understand and internalize because you

[11:47] don't see the world of outcomes that

[11:48] don't happen, right? You don't see that

[11:50] series played out 50 times. You only see

[11:52] it once. But but but nobody the average

[11:55] person just doesn't even want to admit

[11:56] that it's part of the game that it's

[11:58] just like well the better team won. It's

[12:00] like well no that doesn't it's not what

[12:02] happened. They just happen to play

[12:03] better over and sometimes not even over

[12:05] that span. But no one wants to say that

[12:07] because it it dilutes sports. It dilutes

[12:09] why everybody cheers for sports. And uh

[12:12] I'm not suggesting that at the end of

[12:13] the year we should have a trophy for you

[12:15] know who played the best or whatever.

[12:17] But from a betting perspective, when

[12:19] we're betting, you know, we're we're

[12:20] trying to strip out as much variance as

[12:23] possible, as much randomness, it's like

[12:25] what plays happen in a game that are not

[12:27] necessarily going to be repeatable going

[12:29] forward. That's how I look at sports. I

[12:30] don't think the average person

[12:32] >> or you think about like uh three-point

[12:34] percentage. I don't know. The smart

[12:35] people who know basketball tell me like

[12:37] so much of that is luck, especially on a

[12:39] game-to-ame basis. And it's like, oh,

[12:41] you know, if you're trying to calculate

[12:42] how many three-pointers someone's going

[12:44] to make, it's actually just a far better

[12:45] proxy to just, you know, take their

[12:47] attempts as opposed to actually looking

[12:48] at how many they're making. And if a

[12:49] game where some one team is making all

[12:51] of them, they're not even like obviously

[12:53] they're playing well, but it's just so

[12:54] much a function of luck. And so you

[12:56] think about mean reversion and all sorts

[12:58] of stuff. Yeah, it's just tricky. All

[12:59] right, question number five.

[13:01] >> If you had to choose, this is very we we

[13:05] can interpret this however we want to.

[13:06] Okay, you choose one of the two. Small

[13:09] edge plus massive volume or big edge

[13:14] plus limited volume.

[13:15] >> Okay, so I I have a I'm very strongly in

[13:18] one camp here.

[13:19] >> So am I.

[13:21] >> Okay, I'll go first. Uh big edge, small

[13:25] volume.

[13:25] >> Yeah.

[13:26] >> Um and so I think the is that the same

[13:27] what side you were going to be on? Okay.

[13:29] So, I was the the way I was thinking

[13:31] about it is like let's you assume

[13:34] there's a certain number of games and a

[13:35] certain number of liquidity. So, what

[13:36] I'm imagining is like a 10% edge that

[13:39] you can bet up to, let's say for the big

[13:42] edge, it's let's say 20% edge. Each bet

[13:44] you can place up to whatever, you know,

[13:47] $5,000 or like whatever 5% of your

[13:49] bankroll, something like that, and you

[13:51] have, let's say, 50 instances of betting

[13:53] it versus the small like the small edge

[13:56] where it's let's say, you know, one or

[13:58] two% edge. You can bet unlimited amount

[14:00] of money and it's, you know, whatever it

[14:02] not going to last forever, right? So,

[14:03] let's say it happens like 200 times. And

[14:05] so the reason that I chose big edge

[14:09] small volume for me is cuz I know myself

[14:12] y and I don't want to go broke. And if

[14:15] we were to simmit, you know, let's say

[14:17] like we do this 500 time this experiment

[14:19] 500 times a portion of the times if I

[14:22] know that I have an edge and it's a

[14:23] small edge that I can bet a lot on, I'm

[14:25] going to bet too much and go broke.

[14:26] Whereas, you know, I I would rather at

[14:28] this point, you know, take the small

[14:30] edge, take the big edge, you know, we'll

[14:32] we'll parlay it, we'll round robin it,

[14:33] we'll try to get a big sweat. But

[14:35] there's no way that I'm going to go bust

[14:36] or lose a lot of money on a on a big

[14:38] edge.

[14:38] >> The the problem with big edge and

[14:40] limited volume is that there's there's a

[14:42] lot of variance there.

[14:43] >> Yeah.

[14:44] >> Anytime you reduce volume, you're going

[14:47] to have a lot of variance associated

[14:48] with that. The reason that I picked that

[14:50] one and many people might disagree with

[14:52] me. I'm very interested if you're a pro

[14:55] and you watch this or even if you're

[14:56] not, I I would like to hear

[14:58] >> you can because you don't even have to

[14:59] be like you don't have to be a pro. You

[15:00] just imagine like scale it to your

[15:02] bankroll, right? where and you can think

[15:04] of it as this sort of equal EV like

[15:06] would you rather have you know 10% edge

[15:09] where you can bet $10 or 1% edge where

[15:11] you can bet $100 like you can scale it

[15:13] to however much money you have and think

[15:14] about it

[15:15] >> I think that there is um less

[15:18] operational complexity associated with

[15:21] the side that we've chosen so for myself

[15:23] as a sports better I've never been

[15:26] strong on the operational side of things

[15:28] >> it's difficult to bet like $200,000 like

[15:30] it's it's logistically not an easy thing

[15:31] to do

[15:32] >> I don't you I have accounts but like we

[15:34] burn through them. I'm not especially

[15:37] getting money in and out transferring

[15:39] like yeah it's a hard it's very

[15:41] different if it's like okay my personal

[15:44] whatever account that they just let me

[15:45] bet infinite amounts and that's just

[15:47] like all that but that's like very rare

[15:49] that it's not actually going to happen

[15:50] like that in practice. Like I'm sure if

[15:52] I asked this to other people at our

[15:53] network like if I brought this to Kesh

[15:55] who has that like operation going he

[15:58] might say yeah I want I want yeah you

[16:00] know the smaller edges and I just want

[16:01] to do as much volume as possible.

[16:04] >> Um there's pros and cons to each

[16:06] >> for sure.

[16:06] >> Yeah.

[16:07] >> As I think through it more I can

[16:08] actually see the other side of the

[16:10] argument. I'm maybe not

[16:11] >> my my answer is purely for me. Like I

[16:13] just I I think cuz especially if I knew

[16:16] for certain that let's say something had

[16:18] a 2% edge and I lost a few like I would

[16:20] be betting more

[16:22] >> like chasing knowing that it's a good

[16:24] bet. Like I I often chase if I know that

[16:26] it's a good bet or you try to get a good

[16:28] bet when you chase which is not a good

[16:29] habit obviously but like with unlimited

[16:31] liquidity on something that I knew let's

[16:33] say I'm getting a coin flip at like plus

[16:34] 102 after a bad day I'm chasing it and

[16:37] you know whatever one in 20 times I'm

[16:38] going to get into some serious trouble.

[16:39] >> Yeah. For me, it just comes down to the

[16:41] operational grind, which is is never

[16:44] never never and won't be my forte at any

[16:46] point.

[16:47] >> Uh, number six, uh, this has come up in

[16:49] in many circles recently, which is

[16:51] surprising that AI gave it to us as

[16:53] well. If sports books limited nobody,

[16:56] would most winners still win? Probably

[16:59] not. I think I mean I just the the way I

[17:01] think about this question is if sports

[17:02] books were not allowed to limit winners,

[17:04] well, they would either not win or they

[17:05] would win a lot less, right? I think

[17:06] there's just like if you couldn't limit

[17:08] winners, one of two things happens.

[17:09] Either the offerings decrease or the

[17:12] limits decrease significantly, right?

[17:14] You just wouldn't be able to, you know,

[17:15] download a new account and place

[17:16] thousands of dollars on an SGP, which

[17:18] already like you can't like it's already

[17:20] sort of gotten a lot more restrictive.

[17:22] Um, but yeah, like the vast objectively

[17:24] the vast majority of people who are

[17:25] profitable sports betting are doing it

[17:27] because they are picking off off numbers

[17:29] at sports books. Not saying that's good

[17:30] or bad, it's just like the easiest way

[17:31] to make money. I would in the last five

[17:33] years especially there's been a huge

[17:35] shift towards top down betting where I I

[17:39] agree with you the vast majority of

[17:41] people who are able to win is through

[17:42] top down.

[17:43] >> Yeah. And if you have you know all of

[17:45] these I remember like the early days of

[17:47] odds jam or whatever where it'd be like

[17:48] people would just be arbing like live

[17:51] rebound props and you're just like that

[17:53] doesn't exist if you can't limit people.

[17:56] Um, so yeah, I think it's pretty Yeah, I

[17:59] think it's pretty clearly um that most

[18:01] people wouldn't win.

[18:02] >> Yeah. And and if you think about it like

[18:03] circa, right? Like if you just had all

[18:05] of the people who win right now and you

[18:06] force them to bet into circa, would they

[18:08] win?

[18:09] >> Probably way fewer of them, I would

[18:11] assume.

[18:11] >> 100%. But like also just think about how

[18:14] the dynamic of sports books would

[18:16] change. Let's say regulation across

[18:18] North America, every state and province

[18:21] says no more no more limits. You got to

[18:23] offer fair limits to everyone. Well,

[18:26] naturally,

[18:28] I think a lot of sports books would pull

[18:29] mark a lot of markets because they're

[18:31] like, I'm not going to let people bet on

[18:32] this market with these types of limits.

[18:34] There's no way we're going to be able to

[18:35] offer that. And uh because of that,

[18:38] >> you know, your top down better, you lose

[18:40] volume. It's I I'm with you. Some

[18:43] betters are good at finding edges.

[18:46] Others are good at finding limits that

[18:48] allow them to exploit edges. And there's

[18:51] um there's a big difference between

[18:53] that. But um yeah, I mean if you there's

[18:57] a sharp sports book model right now.

[18:58] That's essentially what we're talking

[19:00] about. Most people who are top down

[19:01] betting are not making money from you

[19:03] know circa bookmaker Chris Pinnacle.

[19:07] Exact. Exactly.

[19:08] >> Uh number seven, I like this question.

[19:11] >> Uh what's a sign that your edge is

[19:13] quietly disappearing?

[19:16] So, I mean the obvious answer is just

[19:17] that you're losing um in whatever

[19:19] capacity. Quiet.

[19:20] >> I would say

[19:22] the obvious one is that your CLV is

[19:24] shrinking.

[19:25] >> Sure. Sure.

[19:25] >> Similar, but yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah.

[19:27] Yeah. Yeah. It whatever sort of metric

[19:30] you're using to track. Um I think I

[19:32] thought about this one. I think it's um

[19:35] like not knowing why things are priced

[19:39] in certain ways or why the market is

[19:40] moving. So, I I think back to times when

[19:43] I was a better bet better than I am now.

[19:45] Y

[19:46] >> um and you're very very assuming you're

[19:49] betting into liquid markets, right?

[19:50] Assuming it's not just you're like

[19:51] picking off off like stale prices or

[19:54] like you're exploiting some flaw, if

[19:55] you're sort of actually originating and

[19:57] modeling, like you have to be very in

[19:59] tune with the market. And so even if

[20:01] that means that you like don't like a

[20:04] certain bet or you do like a certain bet

[20:05] knowing okay

[20:07] I make this you know whatever plus 200

[20:10] but the market is plus 350 why is that

[20:12] like why is there that difference and I

[20:15] think to like once again times when I

[20:17] was a better better and it would be like

[20:18] oh you know the sky is coming off a long

[20:21] travel time or the conditions are

[20:23] different and I think that if you're

[20:24] losing your edge

[20:26] >> you probably and this has actually

[20:28] happened to me I know like you just

[20:29] don't you're like looking at the board

[20:30] and you're like, "Wait, why is this

[20:32] priced this way? I don't know." And and

[20:33] that is sort of a leading indicator of

[20:35] if you don't know why things are priced

[20:36] the way they are, then you're probably

[20:37] not going to be able to win.

[20:38] >> Yeah. I've uh I've lost many edges

[20:40] before. The the first edge I ever really

[20:44] truly had was uh was baseball and and

[20:47] surprisingly major markets. Um, I would

[20:51] say that this is applicable to my

[20:54] experience, but when your model

[20:56] disagrees with the market less often,

[21:00] okay, this is counterintuitive to what

[21:02] people believe cuz that often means that

[21:06] the market has caught up.

[21:07] >> Sure.

[21:08] >> And that's how I viewed it. So, when I

[21:10] first started betting baseball, right, I

[21:12] could get up in the morning and limits

[21:15] would would would increase. Funny

[21:17] enough, we were called circles off

[21:19] because the circles used to come off and

[21:21] that means the limits went up.

[21:23] >> And uh there were days where man, we're

[21:28] betting like 12 to 15 plays

[21:30] >> at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time, sides and

[21:32] totals. Then two years later,

[21:34] >> if I woke up at the same time to bet, I

[21:36] had maybe one or two plays.

[21:38] >> Okay. So, I I I think I was trying to

[21:39] because I sort of disagree with you. I

[21:40] was trying to figure out I think the

[21:41] difference is if your edge generally

[21:45] manifests in widespread small edges or

[21:50] concentrated big edges. So I'm thinking

[21:52] like when I would bet a lot when I was

[21:54] betting a lot more and even to this day

[21:56] it's rare that I or like I would go

[21:58] through the board and I would you know

[22:00] have let's say three or four matches

[22:03] with large edges as opposed to a bunch

[22:05] with smaller edges. Like obviously if

[22:08] you you want to bet the smaller edges

[22:09] too. So, but like the way that I would

[22:12] bet is I would bet fewer things with

[22:14] smaller edges as opposed to lots of

[22:16] things, sorry, fewer things with bigger

[22:18] edges. Yeah. And so, like the idea that

[22:21] I was in line with the market price most

[22:23] of the time with a few outliers as

[22:26] opposed to consistently being different

[22:28] than the market. Does does that make

[22:29] sense?

[22:29] >> Yeah. Well, like I I I know what you're

[22:31] getting at. So for me, the the kind of

[22:33] the way that I think about it is when

[22:35] you have an edge, it's it's not about

[22:38] just having the edge. It's your ability

[22:41] to bet that, right?

[22:44] >> And it's great when Yeah. you listen

[22:47] like the market closes at the prices

[22:50] that your model is at.

[22:52] >> But if people are beating you to that

[22:54] earlier and this is the best that I can

[22:58] come up with to generate a true

[22:59] probability, I can't figure out any

[23:01] other variables to incorporate or

[23:03] whatever, then that edge is now gone.

[23:05] Now I have to start thinking about do I

[23:07] bet earlier than them? Is that even

[23:09] worth it? Like do I want to bet when

[23:11] Pinnacle opens at at 2,000? Is it is it

[23:14] worth the time? like so so to me edges

[23:17] that have dried up I think were more so

[23:21] um the market catching up and I think

[23:25] anyone who's an originator would see

[23:27] that just with their volume decreasing.

[23:30] >> Fair enough. Yeah, I guess I just I

[23:32] think about it a little bit differently

[23:33] in terms of like to what degree at least

[23:36] you know the way I bet it's more sort of

[23:39] keeping up to date with news and

[23:41] everything. It's less like there's a set

[23:42] model. It's more just your sort of

[23:44] constantly on the fly knowing things.

[23:45] And so I think that's how I would

[23:47] manifest a little bit differently.

[23:48] >> All right. Um, question number eight.

[23:50] What market is most likely to be

[23:53] inefficient over the next three years?

[23:57] It's quite a loaded question.

[23:59] >> I mean I you go first on this one.

[24:01] >> Okay. So I went through a bunch of

[24:03] different stuff, right? Um, and I I try

[24:06] to make like a definition first. So

[24:09] where would inefficiencies tend to

[24:12] appear? Uh for me it would be a market

[24:14] where liquidity is low.

[24:16] >> Yeah.

[24:18] >> Right. Typically if the limits are lower

[24:20] >> course yeah there's no incentive

[24:21] >> there's no incentive for the best pros

[24:22] to bet there.

[24:24] >> Uh I also think inefficiencies appear

[24:26] when there isn't good data. Yeah.

[24:28] >> For a particular market as well course

[24:31] because you have so many different ways

[24:33] to look at something. And just on an

[24:35] operational perspective,

[24:39] book makers, whatever, sports books,

[24:41] they would allocate fewer resources to

[24:43] those types of markets. So I'm thinking

[24:45] now, what meets those criteria?

[24:48] >> Oh, I I know mine now. I was going to

[24:49] go, this is sort of a copout, live micro

[24:51] markets.

[24:52] >> Okay, definitely that was the top my

[24:53] list. Player micro markets was was right

[24:56] there. If I wanted to get like a little

[24:58] bit deeper than that, I would say like a

[25:02] new um emerging league.

[25:05] >> Sure.

[25:05] >> Okay. So, any anything new, anything

[25:07] where it's changing, whether it's the

[25:09] league, the sport, the format, like all

[25:12] of these things are going to like

[25:14] >> if you can't model it, if if there's no

[25:16] good data to model it and the sports

[25:18] book has doesn't have sort of a a large

[25:20] back testing capability, then it's going

[25:22] to be messed up or at least at some

[25:24] place it's more likely to be messed up.

[25:25] We we don't do a lot of betting with one

[25:27] another, but I wonder if you see some of

[25:28] the same stuff that I do. So, right now,

[25:30] I believe that uh the TGL,

[25:33] >> which is the simulator of golf,

[25:34] tomorrow's golf league.

[25:36] >> Yeah, I've seen this. I've seen this.

[25:37] >> Okay. I think that that's very

[25:38] inefficient. That's probably true. um

[25:40] for all the reasons that I mentioned

[25:42] earlier

[25:42] >> because no one knows what the hell is

[25:44] happening

[25:44] >> and you know I would say I believe that

[25:48] women's sports while I don't bet a lot

[25:50] of women's sports like any emerging

[25:52] women's leagues are probably going to be

[25:54] a little bit more efficient with the

[25:55] exception of WNBA

[25:57] >> little bit less efficient

[25:58] >> less efficient yeah with the exception

[25:59] of WNBA cuz I think a lot of people have

[26:01] found their way into betting that

[26:03] >> I've seen some crazy bets in terms of

[26:04] like I've like I've bet things which the

[26:07] ROI for like women's college sports is

[26:09] just through the roof. Now, you can't

[26:10] bet that much on it and you'll get

[26:11] kicked out quickly, but yeah, there's

[26:13] like yeah, so much uncertainty. Like,

[26:15] anything with incredibly high variance,

[26:17] too, is just easier to kind of find

[26:19] those tail cases. Like, it's easier to

[26:20] find value or significant value on like

[26:23] a plus 600 than a minus 110, right? It's

[26:26] just because you're never going to be

[26:27] that that far off.

[26:29] >> Totally agree. Uh, if you're enjoying

[26:31] this episode, you like more stuff like

[26:32] this, make sure you smash that like

[26:34] button down below. Lets us know that you

[26:35] like it and we'll do more of it. And of

[26:37] course, make sure you're subbed here on

[26:38] circles off and uh leave us a comment

[26:41] while you're at it. We read a lot of

[26:42] them. I actually load them all up into

[26:44] AI. So, whatever you ever say in the

[26:46] comments, it is shaping our content in

[26:49] some way, shape, or form moving

[26:51] forwards. Two more questions to get to.

[26:53] Um, number nine, I think this one is an

[26:56] easy one. Is it harder to become a

[26:59] winning better or to stay a winning

[27:02] better? So, the way I interpreted stay

[27:05] was like scale up, right? Like

[27:08] basically, is it harder to figure out

[27:10] how to flip the switch to being from

[27:12] unprofitable to profitable or to figure

[27:13] out how to make a bunch of money? And I

[27:15] think it's the latter. Like, it's much

[27:17] harder to kind of make a bunch of money

[27:19] just because like there are tools and

[27:21] services.

[27:22] >> Sorry. You think it's the latter?

[27:23] >> I think I think it's harder to scale up.

[27:26] Okay.

[27:26] >> Than it is to be

[27:27] >> to stay a winning better to be clear. I

[27:29] totally agree with you.

[27:30] >> Yeah. Yeah. And I they like I feel weird

[27:33] like saying this obviously you're like,

[27:34] "Oh, it's not that hard to win." Like

[27:36] there are services that you can buy or

[27:38] that you can use that will just show you

[27:40] which sports books are off market,

[27:43] right? Like they're just going to show

[27:44] you an odds screen. It's like, "Okay,

[27:45] all of these are minus 110 and one is

[27:46] plus 120." Like they're few and far

[27:48] between.

[27:48] >> Some will even send you the bets

[27:50] directly like the odds jammers from back

[27:52] in the day.

[27:53] >> Exactly. Exactly. And like it's harder

[27:54] now than it was a few years ago and

[27:56] there like less opportunities, but like

[27:58] once you internalize that, like being a

[28:00] winning bet, you can just not place any

[28:02] other bets outside of the ones that are

[28:03] like way off market, right? So it's not

[28:05] that hard once you kind of get that

[28:06] through your head, but figuring out how

[28:08] to scale and bet more is very very

[28:10] difficult thing to do.

[28:11] >> Totally agree. Um I always I know that

[28:14] this always sounds condescending and

[28:16] arrogant. I truly believe that winning

[28:19] at sports betting is easy. If you are

[28:23] willing to just admit to yourself that

[28:25] you don't know what you're doing.

[28:27] >> Yeah.

[28:27] >> And again, there'll be people watching

[28:29] this that'll be like, "What are you

[28:31] talking?" Like, I I know 98% of sports

[28:33] betterers lose roughly industrywide,

[28:36] right? Somehow everyone that comments on

[28:38] every video and my Twitter and whatever,

[28:40] they seem to be in the 2% that win all

[28:42] the time. But the vast majority of

[28:44] people that lose uh lose. And to me,

[28:47] it's very easy to teach someone like my

[28:50] wife, for example, who knows absolutely

[28:53] nothing about sports, doesn't come in

[28:55] with any preconceived notions of what

[28:58] how to just top down bet and in her own

[29:01] personal name, you know, can make six

[29:04] figures in a year.

[29:05] >> That's a lot. Yeah. I don't know if

[29:07] that's true.

[29:07] >> We're in Ontario here. We got like

[29:10] $20,000. Yeah. I mean, I think like I

[29:12] had a friend text me a couple days ago.

[29:15] Um, and

[29:16] >> I didn't get what you were going with

[29:17] that. You're talking about the exchange

[29:18] rate.

[29:19] >> Yeah. When I was saying 100K, you're

[29:20] like, I was I was going to I was

[29:22] mentioning that we have so many

[29:24] operators.

[29:24] >> That's actually also true. Yeah, there's

[29:26] a lot more operators. Yeah. Also, the

[29:27] exchange rate. Um, I think like I had a

[29:30] friend text me a couple days ago who's

[29:31] like, "Oh yeah, I signed up for a new

[29:32] account. It's like bet five, get 200 in

[29:35] bonus bets." And he's like, "Oh yeah, I

[29:36] put, you know, 100 bonus bets on one

[29:38] side and 100 bonus bets the other side."

[29:40] Yeah. not optimal. His account's

[29:41] probably gonna get shut down for like

[29:43] self arbing. Yeah. But like he walked

[29:45] away with $100 in profit. Yeah. And then

[29:48] like deleted his sportsbook app. And

[29:49] he's like, "How did I do?" And I was

[29:51] like, "Well, you know, I would have done

[29:52] things differently." But like he came in

[29:54] knowing nothing. He assumed that he know

[29:55] nothing, knew nothing, and he like left

[29:57] a winner like that. Like it's not it's

[29:59] not rocket science if you're just like

[30:00] sort of taking the free promo money or

[30:02] if you're just like literally once again

[30:04] picking off super off numbers. Like you

[30:06] can just do that. You just have to leave

[30:07] your you have to leave your ego at the

[30:08] door. Like it's more about not betting

[30:11] the things that you want to betact than

[30:13] than it is like finding the good bets.

[30:16] >> I I think in principle that that is so

[30:19] much easier to do. With that said,

[30:21] >> it's seemingly impossible for a lot of

[30:24] people to get there. So maybe I'm I'm

[30:26] I'm overestimating how easy it is to

[30:28] win. But if your if your sole goal is

[30:30] just to win money at sports betting and

[30:32] you don't care about the experience of

[30:34] handicapping games and and whatever and

[30:37] you don't have the ego where you're

[30:39] like, "Ah, I watch this team play like I

[30:42] know you you're going to you'll do just

[30:44] fine for a while.

[30:45] >> You'll probably get kicked out quickly

[30:46] and you won't make that much, but like

[30:47] yeah, you'll you'll probably end up in

[30:49] the green

[30:49] >> on the scaling front. Um or so remaining

[30:53] a winner. You lose accounts very

[30:55] regularly. Markets adapt as well. um

[30:58] burnout happens for for bettererss on

[31:01] top of that. So like there's a lot I

[31:03] think it's a lot more challenging.

[31:04] >> Yeah.

[31:05] >> With the latter.

[31:05] >> Yeah. It's very difficult. And you're

[31:06] also I think you're just like you're

[31:08] competing against if you think about if

[31:10] you're just to become a winner, you're

[31:11] kind of competing against the overall

[31:12] pool of betters to become like you know

[31:15] really good better to really scale up.

[31:16] You're competing against a much more

[31:18] much stronger group of people. A much

[31:20] stronger group of betterers. Yeah. as

[31:22] someone who's who's participated in um

[31:25] NHL major markets at at the highest

[31:27] level. Yeah.

[31:28] >> And NFL at a um a pretty high level as

[31:32] well. You you constantly have to

[31:35] reinvent what you're doing.

[31:36] >> Like it's just the easy way to think

[31:38] about it. It's way easier to win right

[31:41] when the odds are posted than at close.

[31:42] Like that's sort of what I'm thinking

[31:43] about the difference here. Like to to

[31:45] stay a winner it's like okay if you you

[31:47] stay a winner but you're still making

[31:49] the same amount you're in the beginning

[31:50] you're not doing well. Like it's just

[31:51] you have to you have to be betting more.

[31:53] Like there's no the stasis in betting is

[31:55] is there it's you're going to lose,

[31:56] right? Like or you're you're you need to

[31:58] grow to sort of stay at a similar rate

[32:00] if that makes sense.

[32:01] >> Yeah. I mean like the the the I like to

[32:02] use personal examples so people can

[32:04] understand where I'm coming from. But I

[32:07] for at least a few seasons when betting

[32:10] the NHL, whatever I modeled the game at,

[32:13] that was going to be very close to the

[32:15] closing number. Okay? because I had

[32:17] people betting for me that were very

[32:20] very confident

[32:21] >> in the in the model and they they had

[32:25] large amounts of money. They hockey is

[32:27] not like the NBA. It's in the NBA you

[32:30] can fill like $200,000

[32:33] pretty easily on any given day. The

[32:36] hockey it's it's very very very it's a

[32:38] it's smaller. So they would just bet the

[32:40] number as much as possible. What people

[32:44] ended up doing, and I kn I know this

[32:46] after the fact because I actually I went

[32:48] to the UK once. I ran into another

[32:50] hockey better there. Um, people started

[32:53] taking the closing line

[32:55] >> and reverse engineering

[32:56] >> and reverse engineering what each team

[32:58] was rated as and then they would pump

[33:00] the opening line.

[33:01] >> Yeah.

[33:01] >> With those numbers.

[33:03] >> So all of a sudden, as I mentioned, you

[33:05] know, maybe 10 minutes ago, the edges

[33:07] are disappearing

[33:08] >> and now you're getting adversely

[33:08] selected like a [ __ ]

[33:10] >> Correct. So I'm like, what's going on

[33:11] here? And then eventually we started to

[33:13] figure out, okay, maybe we should mess

[33:15] around a little bit with the closing

[33:16] prices.

[33:17] >> And that worked for a bit, but then

[33:19] people adapt. It's a it's a cat mouse

[33:21] game. It's competitive. It's extremely

[33:23] competitive.

[33:23] >> Yeah. And you're competing against smart

[33:25] people with a lot of money who are

[33:26] trying really hard.

[33:27] >> And I'm not I'm willing to admit that a

[33:28] lot of these people are smarter than me

[33:30] or at least

[33:30] >> they're almost all smarter than me.

[33:31] >> They they're experienced. They've done

[33:33] this before. It's not their first rodeo.

[33:35] So once you get to those stakes, like I

[33:37] I truly respect the betters who are able

[33:41] to get to that level, especially from an

[33:43] originating point of view and just keep

[33:45] that going for a long period of time.

[33:47] Guys like Harala Bob, whatever you might

[33:49] think of his like Twitter account

[33:50] nowadays, uh Bob Vulgaras, fantastic.

[33:53] Rufus in in in like golf markets, right?

[33:56] Stuff like that is it's just it's tough.

[33:59] You have to be

[33:59] >> stay at your game and be at the top for

[34:01] a long time. I mean, it's just like in

[34:02] sports, right? Like it's so much more

[34:04] impressive to be like LeBron at what is

[34:06] it 41 now, right? And like still be at

[34:08] the top of the game than it is like at

[34:09] 22. Like just think about how much work

[34:11] you have to put in as you're getting

[34:13] older, you know, physically, mentally,

[34:15] like it's insane.

[34:17] >> Yep. Uh our closing question number 10.

[34:19] This one's very theoretical.

[34:20] >> Okay.

[34:21] >> If everyone had the same model, who

[34:26] would win?

[34:27] >> Do you want to take a crack at this one

[34:28] first?

[34:29] >> Okay. So betting comes down to many

[34:32] things. It's not just about having a

[34:34] number. Execution is a big point of of

[34:38] betting. Right now those that have

[34:41] better access

[34:44] um better accounts, more sports books,

[34:47] um timing in this instance would be as

[34:50] early as possible. So those who had like

[34:52] in in theory if everyone had the same

[34:54] model including sports books, we don't

[34:55] have a betting industry. Okay? Like that

[34:56] that's the real answer. If everyone is

[34:59] working with the exact same

[35:00] probabilities,

[35:01] >> no different. Yeah. No one would ever

[35:02] place a bet.

[35:03] >> Correct.

[35:03] >> But I if we're saying you can bet into a

[35:06] sports book where they're trying to

[35:07] price the games and everyone that's

[35:09] betting into those markets has the same

[35:11] model,

[35:12] >> those who can execute the bets the

[35:14] quickest

[35:15] >> would be the ones that could win.

[35:16] >> Okay. So I'll take a slightly different

[35:18] answer which is I think it's the ones

[35:20] who know ball. And what I mean by know

[35:22] ball is be able to identify the

[35:24] instances where that model would fail.

[35:26] Right? because models are like they're

[35:29] models, right? They're not perfect in

[35:30] all scenarios like especially not tail

[35:32] outcomes, whatever like random stuff

[35:33] that happens. So, I think the ability to

[35:36] identify those instances and then I

[35:38] actually I have I have one more bonus I

[35:39] have one more bonus question. It's a bad

[35:41] one to end on. I didn't like that one.

[35:42] Um we touched on this before. I'm

[35:44] curious. What percentage of bettors at a

[35:48] recreational sports book, you know, your

[35:50] DraftKings, your FanDuels, whatever,

[35:52] what percentage of them are coin

[35:55] flipping, are flipping coins, basically

[35:56] meaning they have no edge up or down.

[35:58] They're just purely losing the vague.

[36:00] And how does that differ by market? So

[36:02] like versus NFL money line. Okay, I'm

[36:06] going give you four four options. NFL

[36:08] openers, NFL at close, um, uh, props or

[36:14] live betting.

[36:16] >> And how does it differ? Because I, and I

[36:17] have I have I have my numbers for both

[36:19] for all four.

[36:19] >> Okay. So, NFL openers,

[36:22] >> yeah,

[36:22] >> I do during football season a show on

[36:25] Ford Progress called Sunday Reset.

[36:27] >> Okay. Our audience is mixed between

[36:31] wreck and I'll call it semi sharp but I

[36:36] find I won't name names but people who I

[36:39] know are pretty wreck that comment they

[36:41] can do a decent job of understanding

[36:45] that this is a good bet right now

[36:48] >> this team lost three offensive linemen

[36:50] today or what so it's not that hard or

[36:54] challenging early at close

[36:56] >> and do you think for those for Those

[36:58] guys, are they directionally correct or

[37:00] they are those bets like plus EV or they

[37:02] just better than the VIG? They're better

[37:03] than a coin flip. They're they I think

[37:06] would be bordering on plus EV.

[37:08] >> Interesting. Okay, nice. Bordering on

[37:10] plus EV. I will say in doing those shows

[37:13] on Sunday, and again, this is just a

[37:15] sample of our audience, but I don't

[37:17] know, we get on Sunday night and Monday

[37:20] morning a couple thousand views, uh

[37:22] maybe a couple thousand more listens,

[37:24] something along those lines.

[37:26] I I feel that even the casuals generally

[37:30] have a good inclination of

[37:34] this is a decent bet now. Now the the

[37:36] reality is lots of stuff moves Sunday

[37:38] night and Monday and then by the time we

[37:40] get into the Monday pricing even sports

[37:43] books now like circa would get is is

[37:45] much higher on a Monday than it was in

[37:47] past. Fair

[37:48] >> before.

[37:48] >> At at close it's like no hope.

[37:50] >> Yeah. Yeah. You know it really like in a

[37:53] long run.

[37:53] >> Okay. Okay. So, give me give me a

[37:54] percent like wreck better bets at

[37:56] DraftKings who are betting on the NFL.

[37:57] If you force them to bet the exact

[37:59] opener, how many of them are better than

[38:01] a coin flipper?

[38:02] >> Better than a coin flipper.

[38:08] Maybe I'm blinded by our I don't know,

[38:10] 10%.

[38:11] >> Okay. What about props open at close?

[38:14] >> Props at open versus props at close.

[38:16] >> Yeah.

[38:18] >> H props at open I think is challenging.

[38:22] I think props at open is like a lot is

[38:26] like pretty high. I think props at at

[38:28] like immediate at open. Yeah. I would

[38:31] say I want to say like 20 25%.

[38:34] >> See, this is not my expertise at all.

[38:36] >> To be clear, not not like beating like

[38:39] the vig, but better than a coin flipper

[38:41] because the way I'm thinking about it is

[38:42] that it's very hard to be worse than a

[38:44] coin flipper. And your average

[38:46] recreational, let's say 80% of the time

[38:48] they're coin flipping, but then 20% of

[38:50] the time they like they're on to

[38:52] something. they're directionally correct

[38:53] in which case that would make their

[38:54] overall portfolio losing le which is

[38:56] like to be clear like sports books don't

[38:58] make the vig they always profit but like

[38:59] part of that is from sharps but so so

[39:01] what do you think it is

[39:02] >> I so

[39:03] I want to answer it in a way where I I

[39:07] strongly believe that a recreational is

[39:10] way better off betting early than late

[39:13] >> okay I don't know the props market well

[39:15] enough but I think that the average

[39:18] wreck that's betting let's say 15

[39:21] minutes before game time on a prop.

[39:24] They are thinking that they are pricing

[39:28] in

[39:29] >> Yeah.

[39:30] >> Like they're pricing in information

[39:31] that's already been accounted for. My

[39:33] friends do this all the time. This guy

[39:35] is out of the lineup. This guy's going

[39:37] to get way more looks tonight or

[39:38] whatever. It's like, yeah, he's going to

[39:39] get more looks.

[39:40] >> And actually, those guys might be doing

[39:42] worse than a coin flipper because the

[39:43] the sports book is is pricing that. Like

[39:45] you often see like the if you get a

[39:47] two-way market on, you know, touchdown

[39:49] and no touchdown, all of the vig is on

[39:51] the touchdown is on the touchdown side.

[39:53] So actually, yeah, you're right. Those

[39:54] people might might be worse than coin

[39:55] flipping.

[39:56] >> Yeah. So it's it's

[39:57] >> interesting. What about live?

[40:00] >> Live.

[40:00] >> And then we can finish.

[40:03] >> I think I think live like of people who

[40:09] >> know ball. Yeah.

[40:10] >> Or like think they know ball. So like

[40:12] let's say they watch a decent amount or

[40:13] they're betting a decent amount. I think

[40:15] that a about a third of recreational

[40:19] bettors are beat are better than a coin

[40:22] flipper live.

[40:23] >> Yeah, I think

[40:24] >> and that's that that's that's assuming

[40:26] that 0% of them are worse than a coin

[40:29] flipper. Therefore, that like the sports

[40:30] book is not, you know, shading the lines

[40:32] live to sort of try to induce action on

[40:34] one side.

[40:34] >> I don't have a good um

[40:36] >> or sorry, not to induce action to like

[40:38] know that people are going to betting in

[40:39] a certain way that's going to be worse.

[40:40] I don't have a good reference point for

[40:42] a true wreck better aside from what I

[40:44] see from about a dozen friends.

[40:46] >> Yeah, that's like my reference point

[40:47] too.

[40:48] >> And that could be very biased, right?

[40:49] But if I'm thinking about my friend

[40:51] group and okay, what are the of the five

[40:54] that you mentioned at uh five things

[40:56] that you mentioned, what are they most

[40:57] likely to win at? I'd say betting a prop

[41:00] opener.

[41:01] >> Yeah.

[41:01] >> Then secondly, betting an NFL opener.

[41:05] >> Okay.

[41:05] >> Then live.

[41:07] >> Yeah. Because at least when I'm watching

[41:09] games with my friends like they they

[41:12] have the wherewithal to know that if

[41:14] someone gets injured like they should

[41:15] live bed now.

[41:17] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly.

[41:18] >> Or even like they're they're there's a

[41:20] lot of vegan live or stuff like that.

[41:21] But

[41:22] >> I find that they they

[41:23] >> people I think people know ball they

[41:25] just they don't they don't know the vig.

[41:27] They like right like I I think if like

[41:29] if there was truly no vig live I think a

[41:32] lot of people would win.

[41:32] >> Where my friends are honestly really

[41:35] good. They don't have the discipline to

[41:36] do this, but games that are um blowouts.

[41:40] >> Interesting.

[41:40] >> They they they they're'll be like, "Rob,

[41:43] this guy is not gonna play like another

[41:45] minute." And I don't know NBA well

[41:47] enough or whatever, but they they they

[41:50] honestly probably do well enough there

[41:52] that they can turn a profit. just

[41:54] understanding and and you know

[41:56] theoretically if you're designing a

[41:59] algorithm right to for a live line when

[42:03] you when you're dealing with blowouts

[42:05] >> it's very hard

[42:05] >> it's tough I mean I I've done

[42:08] >> something like player props live it's

[42:09] incredibly difficult

[42:10] >> it's really hard so there there's a lot

[42:12] of blind spots there where if you know

[42:15] ball

[42:16] >> you you might be able to get to get the

[42:18] job done but that like NFL at post is

[42:21] just not happening

[42:22] >> do you have do you friends who are like

[42:24] recreational who will either send you or

[42:27] you'll see kind of like same game

[42:28] parlays that they place and you're like

[42:31] this guy like kind of he like kind of

[42:32] knows what he's doing. Like I have I

[42:33] have a couple friends who like when they

[42:35] send me stuff and I have like enough of

[42:37] a sample size now they're not winning

[42:38] because to be clear they're betting to

[42:39] like 30 40% vig. They'll like describe a

[42:43] game state or like a game script. Yeah.

[42:46] And then I'll be like, "Fuck, dude."

[42:47] Like, "You actually got it if you just

[42:49] weren't if you figured out a way to

[42:52] like, you know, if you were line

[42:53] shopping, right, where like they'll send

[42:55] it to me and they'll only use one sports

[42:56] book." And I'm like, "Oh, I could have

[42:58] gotten this at like plus 800 and you

[43:00] sent it to me at plus 500." Yeah. And

[43:02] like you'll see the game state the game

[43:03] play out and I'm just like, "This guy

[43:05] kind of knows ball. He's just betting

[43:06] into like a devastatingly high hold."

[43:08] >> Yeah. It's hard. My my friends in all

[43:12] honesty have no hope when it comes to

[43:13] SGPS because the real problem is that

[43:16] again the biggest mistake is that they

[43:17] tend to account for things that are

[43:19] already accounted for.

[43:20] >> They don't think about the price too.

[43:21] It's just like oh I think this is going

[43:22] to happen regardless of if it's

[43:23] >> this guy's out tonight. These guys are

[43:25] going to and it's like yeah I know but

[43:27] like go look at what these guys were

[43:29] priced at previously. It's it's already

[43:31] accounted for. Plus my friends still to

[43:34] this day are betting like correlated

[43:37] parlays where they're not getting the

[43:39] right price. So they think of the game

[43:41] script in their head and they're like,

[43:42] "Oh, I like this team against the

[43:44] spread. I like the over. For this to

[43:46] happen, these other things have to

[43:48] happen." And like they think that

[43:49] they're getting like good correlation

[43:51] because they don't know how to price it.

[43:53] >> So I I just think that

[43:56] >> Yeah. Like I I have friends who know

[43:57] ball. It's just that it's they just

[43:59] don't know how to price things.

[44:00] >> You got to know ball and be able to

[44:02] quantify it.

[44:02] >> I know. It's the name of the game. It's

[44:04] the name of the game. But uh that'll be

[44:07] it for our Q&A. appreciate you stopping

[44:09] in.

[44:09] >> Thank you for having me.

[44:10] >> If you enjoyed the episode, smash that

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