MASSIVE UPDATE To This MLB Betting SCANDAL | Presented by Kalshi

00:00 - Flup (Host)
coming up in today's episode of circle back I hate to say this, but I think it gives me this feeling there's some validity to banning this kind of niche and prop kind of market. 

00:08 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Well, maybe the audience is making a mistake looking for this like I want this line available anywhere and should have a little bit more respect for how the market has changed I expect to have a monster football season. 

00:20 - Joey Knish (Host)
Let's get back to winning now. Like, why? Why? There's no like actual analysis here to say that there's. You know, it's just like hot take button. Like what I can fit in a tweet is you know, I'm back in the lab and it's time to win now. 

00:36 - Flup (Host)
Like, okay, that doesn't fucking mean anything, but I disagree with him. The politicians will be reading this, but they will be first reading the billions of dollars in tax revenue that they got and ignoring and ignoring said things Hypothetically. 

00:49 - Joey Knish (Host)
some of the girls I've known that have had like the black is, you know, now the worst. 

00:55 - Flup (Host)
Girls you've known. Are you talking about your own supply? I mean, come on. 

01:02 - Jacob Gramanga (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions circle back here on the circles off channel. 

01:55 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's part of the hammer betting network and presented by calisthenics. This will recover the latest and the greatest stories on gambling Twitter, with myself here, jason Cooper filling in again for Jacob Gromenia, alongside Chris Dierkus, joey Kanish and in the fourth chair today is Porter. Hopefully no camera issues today, but CEO of BA Analytics Porter, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me on again. Yeah, should be a fun one. Before we get started, I just want to let everyone know uh, this is the. The next show, the. The tuesday show is officially canceled for next week because it's a canadian holiday on monday. So you know we were not gonna be able to record. Want to give the boys a little bit of a break. Plus, it's my birthday on sunday. 

02:40 - Joey Knish (Host)
I was kind of dreading doing that, incredibly hungover, but anyways why would none of you actually have a job, so why would the show be cancelled? It's a content company where you produce content and so you can't. There is no fake. It's like if the Superbowl was going on, would we take the week off? Because no, you would do the show, and it's not even on Monday. Like you didn't record the show on Tuesday and why is. Jacob, france for a month I don't know that that one. 

03:11 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I don't know this canadian work ethic I know this is why. 

03:15 - Joey Knish (Host)
It's why the friday show has people that are tuesday shows filled with people that I get all rob's like, oh, I already hit my peak, I'm retiring. It's why the friday is called the Capitalist Show. 

03:27 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, well, listen, the show's been great. The Tuesday show and the Friday show have both been great in terms of viewership and viewer reception. Maybe bad for the algorithm to miss a day or two, but, listen, as a company I think we're willing to bet on ourselves to maintain that viewership. Speaking of betting on yourself, that takes us to the first topic of today Guardians closer. Emmanuel Classe was in the news this week as he was put on MLB or put on leave non-disciplinary pay leave as part of MLB's sports betting investigation. This is kind of important to look at because this isn't the first Guardians pitcher, guardians reliever who was on leave. Right-hander Luis Ortiz also was investigated for sports betting. 

04:14
Ahan Rungta I'm probably pronouncing your name wrong. I apologize, but he did like a little cut together a few clips of Class A a throw uh with a zero, zero count empty bases, found 11 of them to be uncompetitive. Is this evidence? Probably not, but just felt uh, we should bring that tweet up to contextualize things. And then, the most interesting thing I found from this this story was the pitcher profile thread. He had a long thread there, kind of writing about how, um, I guess it raises concern about the mlb being vulnerable to corruption. Um, related to gambling. Uh, saying the league's embracing of sports betting could expose it to, I guess, criminal exploitation. Uh, he's also suggesting or they excuse me, pitcher profile is also suggesting that, uh, uh, current allegations might only be the beginning. There might be a wider integrity issue. Um, this is where Joan Figgins comes in. Uh, at AltBurner account. 

05:15
Just three things, kind of breaking down why this thread doesn't make a lot of sense. One uh, these two guys getting caught to him is a signal that regulation is actually working, which is probably a good thing. Number two, demonizing the biggest poll for paywalled MLB data does not seem like a solid business plan. For those who don't know, mlb sells proprietary data to sports books. It's a major revenue stream for them. And then, number three, as a better, you can obviously tell who has no idea what they're talking about when it comes to gambling. Porter, you wanted to touch on this one, so I'll let you lead here. 

05:44
What are your thoughts on this sort of we'll call it mini betting scandal. 

05:48 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah. So I don't think it requires anywhere near as much data as people think it does to decide if someone's doing something shady cheating and this isn't just happening. I mean I should lead off with I have no doubt, like I definitively know, in you know, some tennis leagues and some very low markets, that there's plenty of, not plenty, but this occurs. So when you see this in major markets it's kind of a whole weird tweet that the guy posts because after number one, effectively this is good. Betting has brought this to the forefront where the past this was a lot harder to spot. The number one way to spot this is through sports betting. So if anything, allowing this in, it's the opposite. It's the fastest way to expose if something wrong is going on. 

06:38
And you know this is pretty damning that it's two guys, you know. You know long story short getting caught here. The most likely reason they got caught and got caught so quick, or at least this has become investigated is because of regulation and betting now being brought more to the forefront. And there are, you know, a lot of in the past. You know uh, I forget the Arizona team. You know they were shaving points and this all, and you know the, the ref. That was basically, you know, cheating in the games. So that stuff seemed to have taken entire seasons to play out, where now this is all coming in lightning speed. So, if anything, regulation here is just cleaned up the industry. It's not exposing it more to, it's protecting it from it. 

07:24 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, no, those are great points there. For those who don't know, I don't think the bets that Klasse is getting accused of betting on wherever this investigation leads to I don't think it's out right now, but the Ortiz stuff was about first pitch in their hat in a given at-bat, right. So very low liquidity niche markets probably should have led with that. And I mentioned that off the top and I'm sure if you're watching the show you know all about this. Kanish Chris any or Flop, sorry, any opinion on this or nothing, really much there. 

07:54 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, I mean one more one more thing with them is you know these guys might be justifying these bets yeah, it's smaller market, lower liquidity but they might be thinking in their head you know this isn't that bad. We're not throwing the game, it's one pitch. So this type of cheating I could see where they could attempt to like morally rationalize it that it's not the end of the world. I'm not saying it's okay, I'm just saying it's a lot different than you know. The score You're up by seven. At the end of the game the game's over, the other team is walking off the court and you go and dunk the ball. This is not the same as that. While it's still wrong and still obviously you know they're going to get in a lot of trouble if they get caught here. People should understand there are differences between types of not all cheating is cheating, but you know the level of extreme that's going on here is. 

08:43 - Jason Cooper (Host)
You know the level of extreme that's going on here is, you know, a little different. Yeah for sure, Go ahead, Chris. 

08:48 - Flup (Host)
I was going to say I wonder if, like you said something earlier about how it's not a lot of sample size and doesn't mean it's cheating it sounds like it does mean it is, with 11 pitches out of 22 like that. But I wonder if there's not betting data to back this up. Like, were there bets on those 11 uncompetitive? Yeah, you got to see influx, right, and I guess this also makes me a little nervous. 

09:21
If we have these kind of niche types of bets that like to porter's point, how bad is it if it's a ball and when it's, oh oh, it probably impacts the game almost? Let like half a percent at the absolute most probably far, far less. And if you did that once in in your career and you collected 50 or 100k, how bad is that? Like you probably could get away with it too. So, like is that that? Can we not see things like that happening? And, um, I don't know if they're ever going to be cracked down on this, and I think there's. I hate to say this, but I think it gives me this feeling there's some validity to banning these kind of niche and prop kind of markets if something like this could really explode. 

10:06 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that's true. It's easy for players to expose this kind of stuff. Kanish, any thoughts? Are you ready to move on to the next topic here? 

10:12 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean, I think the pitcher profile tweet here is the one that I've taken. It's just absolutely ridiculous. Mlb doesn't have a gambling problem, it has an organized crime problem. That is the ultimate like rage break, dramatic, like way to phrase this. Because it was probably like some family members, some good, that guys they know that, like they're getting down for, uh, because the amount of the amount of money that you can actually get down on some type of market like that is so nominal that it would be like, oh, I'm trying to help out, like you know, somebody I know through that the fact to make it sound like this is like some organized crime. Like, oh, the I'm getting down, you know, for the gambino family because he owes a gambling debt. The guy's making millions of dollars are getting, like you know, maybe a thousand prop or something. 

10:54 - Flup (Host)
I gotta push back on this, like, yes, like you might think it's nominal to get down, but if I told you that the first pitch is going to be a ball and I'm giving you one week to prepare for this, you don't think you could get like mid five figures, six figures, I mean if you, because you could be price insensitive, as all can be, because you have the answer. So, like I don't, I disagree that you can only get a nominal amount, can only get a nominal amount in this situation in almost any market. If you have the actual bet result beforehand, you should be able to get a lot, regardless of what your operation size is if I even said that do you, would you phrase that as an organized crime problem? 

11:37 - Joey Knish (Host)
okay? 

11:37 - Flup (Host)
that I. 

11:38 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I kind of okay, fair, fair enough, that fair enough uh on top of that, I will throw in there the coordination for them to do this would be pretty tough. I mean, like these guys are relief pitchers, they're not starters, so we don't know when they're going to go in. Uh, maybe the the who knows the situation they had set up with people who are betting this kind of stuff. Like we mentioned before very niche market, very tough to get down, lower liquidity there. So, yeah, uh, want to hear the people's thoughts on this. That was the right story to lead with the show because I mean, listen, we're a betting show and if we're not talking about some betting scandals that could possibly be happening, we're just doing a disservice to our audience. Let's move from one low liquidity niche market to another. I mean, our sponsor Kalshi has a ton of niche markets, some with low liquidity, some markets with incredibly high liquidity. 

12:24
But the market I chose for us today has to do with Hulk Hogan, who will attend Hulk Hogan's funeral. Listen, just a reminder before we get into this. You can sign up to CalSheet at any point throughout the show. Just use the link down in the description. Helps us a great deal if you haven't used CalSheet before. It's a great, great, great sponsor for us to have. I mean, there's tons of people on this list who might attend a funeral. A couple that I highlighted here were John Cena, sylvester Stallone, dwayne the Rock, johnson, hey, maybe even Donald Trump, porter, you wanted to touch on this a little bit, so do you have any action on this or just general thoughts? 

13:06 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Who's attending. I mean, when it's low liquidity, I think it's like the best time to take stabs when you don't have good information, because you're going to see a lot of volatility and you could treat it more like a trading market than necessarily like wait till it closes. And when there's a ton of liquidity, I find it to be harder to treat it like a like a trading market, because you're just not going to get the same volatility usually in the action. So I sprinkled a couple of yes spots. I don't think Donald Trump is going to show up to this. I mean, I think Hulk did speak at the RNC. Yeah, I feel like the president should be busy. 

13:42
He has important things to do other things. 

13:46 - Flup (Host)
Hulk did speak at the RNC. I don't think it's like that unreasonable to think that he shows up for one of like the rights, like icons. It doesn't seem like unreasonable. John Cena seems like pretty good to me, but last time I made a bet and I thought I felt something. So I'm going to recommend don't tell me I'm not betting it myself, this is more my own intellectual curiosity. 

14:12 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
it seems good I mean, I like the, I like the concept here that I've noticed some people use calci to write articles about. So the reference odds. Now I don't like that when it's really low liquidity, because then you can effectively make your article literally say anything and it will like you can make it match up. But in high liquidity markets I really feel like these exchanges, especially since there's a couple of leaders in it and when you add it all up there's a lot of volume. I really see the future of investigative journalism where maybe a little bit more serious markets than this one, but exchanges can be used and will now be written about and referenced to as a data set for why XYZ journalists think something's going to happen. 

14:57 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I think we saw that inflection point with the US election right when there was reference, a lot of places were referencing the odds with an aptifact. You saw these whales coming in and going heavy on Donald Trump, and rightfully so. For them, it must have been a great, great day when he was financially for them when he was brought into office. But yeah, I want to hear your thoughts. Who do you think is going to attend Hulk Hogan's funeral? If you don't want to talk about that, let us know what you think about calisthenics in general in the comment section down below. Reminder you can sign up to calisthenics at any point throughout the show. Just uh in link in the description or, if you're watching right now, qr code on the screen bottom right corner you can scan it. 

15:33 - Joey Knish (Host)
We'll take you directly to the calisthenics website joey lib will not be there, so if I get added just you can dump whatever you want. Minus 5 000 on the no, I will not. Not be at the Hulkster's funeral, no matter what even if I'm getting an official invite. 

15:48 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, sounds good. Kanish will not be there. Kanish, what's the minimum? 

15:53 - Flup (Host)
amount it would take for you to be up there. Have I paid you 1,000? Would you show up if you were up there? 

15:57 - Joey Knish (Host)
No, 1,000 is not enough. I don't want to go. Listen, we don't want to go. I'm not listen, we don't have to get there. I'm not a Hulk Hogan fan at all in in any of them, any realm. I thought the whole like there was like six people for this company. I'm just going to get. Actually it was more hit man and Pozzola and I'm like, oh, my childhood, we you know, and Hulkster was out there like get, he was a terrible. Everybody in wrestling I watched too many wrestling documentaries hated him, hated him. He was like all time, everybody that ever worked with him hated him. His kids don't even talk to him. So, no, I'm out on Hogan. And yeah, sorry to those who were big fans, I guess. 

16:39 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All good Again. Just I mean, at least you know he probably would know what sashimi is. Uh, if anyone's seen, that video like uh. 

16:51
For those who know, uh, you know, I'll bring it back up on the screen again. Uh, kalshi, if you want to sign up, just use the qr code in the bottom right hand corner, or we can sign up in the link through in the description at any point throughout the show. All right, I don't know how to segue into this next topic, so we're just going to dive right in head first. I mean, we had a pretty popular show on Tuesday here on Circle, back with me, jeff Kirk Evans, rob Pozzola Talked a little bit about touting kind of what that means, and if you're good, if you should buy picks or not. That discussion we have it all the time. But it seems like Red Angle Sports didn't like what we mentioned about them. They decided to kind of go after the network and if you guys will give me the floor for a couple minutes here, I'm just going to outline what they said. But I would like to just kind of say my own piece about them because, hey, I work for this network. The work that I do is what they're mentioning here. This is part of what I do, so I feel like it's only fair for us to respond. Rast tweets out. 

17:45
Most people have no idea how difficult it is to win for a following on sides and totals, with even half-hearted attempt at using widely available lines At. Rolf Azul and hashtag. Circlebackteam have been quick to criticize others for bad losing runs, but their own attempts at beating sides and totals have failed miserably. Active Hammer shows sides, money lines and totals. I referenced Hit the Books, which is down minus two units. Forward Progress down 34 units. Edgework down 23 units. Primetime down nine units, saying 69, down 69. Nice Units flat as of July 30th 2025 on 2,000 clays. 

18:24
As I've said many times before, free pick content can often be just as damaging, if not more so, than paid picks. That's also. They also aren't without the true cost of watching hundreds of hours of programming quickly before we get into the next slide. I'm really sorry for everyone watching this. It must be a big cost on your life. You must not enjoy this by watching this show. Anyways, rob kind of went back at it saying the single biggest day of my life. 

18:47
None of the live bets are included due to availability, but they would paint a very different picture for the overall forward progress record, rast says. Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting Rob or any other Hammer host or guest doesn't win on their own. The whole point of my post is to emphasize how much more difficult it is to win for a public following, particularly with sides and totals using real lines. Well, it's interesting because they mentioned sides, totals and spreads, but they kind of purposely omitted props. I'm not really sure as to why they do that. We don't hide, uh, anything that we do on this con, on this channel or on this network. Excuse me, here is the actual record from betstamp, third party verified, of all of our shows with props included. 

19:23
Now, why they would want to exclude props? Maybe because it makes us look excuse me a little bit worse. One of those shows in particular, primetime NFL, is our tracking page for our live watch-along shows, which go live 15 minutes before game time. If you think that we're going to be beating market 15 minutes before game time, I'm sorry you're crazy. Like that's just a ridiculous thing to think that we're going to be uh money line spreads and totals for the nfl 15 minutes before, like that's just. I don't know if they purposely uh omitted those for that reason only, or maybe they didn't know. 

19:55
But yeah, I thought I'd share a little bit of context and you know what, maybe raz is used to omitting props, because on their own website they had nfl and n and NBA picks dating back to 2022 and 2023. They were down 14 units on it and this has mysteriously vanished from their website. So maybe this is part of their MO, where they like to omit props, and they're just applying that to us here as well. I mean, I feel like I said my piece there. Kanish, chris Porter, which one of you guys want to start on this one, knish? I mean, they talked about hit the books, so I guess, I guess I'll let you lead here well, I mean, looking at those records that he posted it, the books, looks all right. 

20:34 - Joey Knish (Host)
So, uh, you know, I don't, uh, I don't mind. Maybe this overall look compared to the other, some of the other shows, um, I I don't, I don't understand. I know, like I do understand, why ed uh does this for from from a business side of things, but there's no way in the argument in of the masses, when you're going of the boat like a free content or just, you know, creative content, as opposed to selling a service, a service that's very pricey, is never, ever, ever going to be held to the same standard, publicly, privately, whatever you want, whatever mold that you can get, and you can see this when you go to any of the comments on any of these tweets or any of the people that are getting involved in this. If you want listen, you're going to take exponentially more criticism. When you're running a paid service and selling pics and having people get down in this, then you will, and that's just the way it is. And if you don't like it, if you can't take the heat in the kitchen, you don't have to do it. So again, it is. It is what it is. I don't feel bad, it's part. 

21:48
If you want to ask me why, you know, one of the reasons that I never went into it at any point is you're going to have to, on top of all the reasons that it's hard to do, it's hard to do. Well, is you're going to? I get this. There's no more scorned person than a person who's purchasing picks when they're not winning. It's the ultimate worst customer service thing from anybody than having to deal with people that are losing money paying for your pick. 

22:18
So you know what? I just think it's part of the deal now, and it's part of the reason that, like for a lot of years, ras never had to worry about it because it was part of the deal. Now, and it's part of the reason that, like for a lot of years, ras never had to worry about it because they was winning, winning, winning. Now you run into a few years where you've had some bad runs in different sports and the heat, the heat just turns up. So I don't know, I think this is just part of the game. I don't know, maybe he took a shot at us because this network talks about it. 

22:43 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, us, because this network talks about it. Yeah, I mean, this is the classic winning solves everything. So when you're not winning and you're charging, you know people get upset. It's pretty, pretty simple. And just because it's hard to win on sides and totals, I think what's happened here a little bit is the game has changed the and, by the way, some of their size and totals wins. They're like first half manhattan, you know it's a little bit different than benny, like his duke, you know this is gonna cover the spread. 

23:12
But I would say there is this kind of fallen behind times where other markets people can get down on them, this like crazy obsession with widely available. Well, maybe the audience is making a mistake looking for this Like I want this line available anywhere and should have a little bit more respect for how the market has changed, what's going on in sports betting, and maybe it's time to take a slight sidestep where you know what People are betting just as much on his LeBron going to score more than 27 and a half points tonight than some. You know division two, first half line, and, honestly, once you start going to really small schools or college football, fcs, extra games, more games no, it's really mostly sharps betting on there. It used to be this. You know books would think, oh, it's a d-gen mostly betting here, but those times are are long gone. I mean, look, I have firsthand experience arguing with Ed. 

24:06
I spent half of my COVID time on the Discord daily messaging back and forth about what's going on there and I think sometimes they're a little bit lost on how things have changed. And don't get me wrong, most likely. So I'm going to give. I've been kind of dying to do this. I'm going to give my theory on what's happening. Likely, so I'm gonna give. I've been kind of dying to do this. I'm gonna give my theory on what's happening. 

24:26
Uh, pre-covid, there weren't a lot of young guys who were happy getting down 250 bucks, 500 bucks and moving the line and back then you could either pay those guys off or there weren't that many of them. And raz got to wait and wait and wait and do a kind of medium late release and people were getting down and times have changed. You can't convince the kids that 250, a play overnight or snap at open is good is not enough for them. It is probably enough for them. And now, when you've become a large company, well, you have a lot of mouths to feed. So now you still, now you got to wait because you need to sell a lot of subscriptions to feed a lot of mouths. So I don't for a second personally think Raz has gotten worse, like it doesn't even really make sense you really think guys who have been handicapping over time, that seem to be competent, are like getting worse at the handicapping? No, the line is getting tougher to beat or the line is moving earlier. And if you're trying to play the game of waiting, well, your ROI is going to go down, variance is going to go up, your customer is going to get annoyed. And now you're going to get people and look, the simplest way is you just, like Knish said, just open the comments. 

25:34
Why, where are the people that are? Look, I saw some excuse of why there aren't people defending them. No, their record is transparent. So if it's transparent, you don't hide and say, oh, they're actually bad or I'm winning with them. No, there just aren't people in those comments really defending them. So to me that's a context clue of something to look for. Once again, I don't think they've lost their edge. I just think the market has changed. Times have changed. Young kids are coming in betting small amounts early. The market is moving. It's just a different ball game and all that's happened here is they haven't really adjusted to the ballgame, while they might actually be getting half a percent, quarter percent, better at the handicapping, which is not enough if someone's just moving the line three, four points early, that's it. 

26:18 - Flup (Host)
Lot to unpack there. First thing I'll just say I agree and disagree with you, porter, on your point that they haven't gotten worse. I think if the market's gotten better more than they've improved themselves, that's the same thing as getting worse, because all that matters is how you compare versus the market. I mean, who cares how good you handicap? I would take half as good of rath's skill 10 years ago. That's probably much better than what it what it is now. I'm gonna earn a lot more um. The second thing I'll say is going back to the main point. 

26:54
I thought it was extremely um disingenuous behavior for them to not include props when some of the props are included in their own, like nfl records and and whatnot. Like I don't understand why they only did sides and totals and they cherry picked certain data, especially considering rob says almost every time he does it release we are not winning. On sunday, 15 minutes before game, how are you going to criticize him for losing when he says that If he said, yeah, I think we win, that's a problem. I think that's fair to criticize, but he doesn't say that I don't. Like. I've never said anything bad about Trent at least I don't think I have in sports because they're very transparent. 

27:45
In my opinion, they admit they're losing it's community aspect. There's nothing wrong with that. In my opinion, people love telling their friends and whatnot. As long as you don't, as a, as a free company and a free content company, don't say that hey, we think these have picks, have massive edge, then I think there's nothing wrong with posting, uh, free content. And to criticize them for having a bad record is very disingenuous when, if I'm buying picks, I'm not buying picks from rast to be friends with, like ed and the rast team, I'm buying to win and if I don't win I have a big problem with it. So you can't compare them at all. And not allowing the props was so disingenuous and it paints a completely different picture when you include it, and especially since they're not guaranteeing all the people try to get to their same line, and they were. And we, as you know the hammer, are being even nicer by not even really including the live lines in. 

28:39 - Jason Cooper (Host)
So it's just like ridiculous well, I mean even live lines, sgps as well which like if you again this is like not really meant to be a shameless plug here, but if you were watching our live watch, we hit some pretty crazy SGPs, like upwards of 70 to one on some of that stuff which is like To be fair, jason, a lot of that stuff is just like so high variance. 

28:59 - Flup (Host)
I think it's yes, of course, of course. 

29:01 - Jason Cooper (Host)
There's no point of even including it, of course, of course there's no point of even including it. But but again, like to to come out here and say that, like, I think what I really took problem with was, like what you mentioned there not not bringing in props then also saying that there's a true cost of like watching the content, as if people don't like enjoy watching our content. As to the why people are going to be watching the content in the first place, I think that was like, uh, the the biggest thing. That kind of struck me as a little bit odd. Yeah, I guess we can move on to the next topic here. Before we do, just a tweet from Ferris Just talking about. He said you know who doesn't have to constantly tweet about records by sport, hypothetical bankrolls won and lost or performances over arbitrary time periods, people who don't sell picks, simple as that. 

29:46
All right, before we get into our next topic here, just a quick reminder for you guys. Like I mentioned off the top of the show, the Canadians are taking a day off Next Tuesday, no show. So the next time you'll hear from us will be on the Friday edition next week of Circle Back, which I believe is August 7th or 8th, I don't have a calendar, you're pardon me, august 8th. There you go. All right, we talked about one tout service Time to transition to another touting service that it seems like the Hammer Betting Network cannot stay out of the crosshairs of some of these tout services, because Steve Fezik posted a tweet recently it's actually yes, two days ago saying I am up 200 units, sorry, plus 200 units on my plays from 2020 to 2025. 

30:30
Let's get back to winning. Let's get back to the winning starting now. I just wanted to add another tweet that was from three days before this tweet that he sent out, where he said he was up 250 units over the last five years and he mentions he was down 46 units in this year alone. It seems like maybe, marketing-wise, it's probably better if you say you're up 200 units than up 250 over a five-year span, but down 46 units this year. Smart marketing. 

30:59 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
What's the difference? It's just the whole 46 units different number different. 

31:03 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I guess 46 units in six months doesn't look too hot anyways. Um rufus responded to it, saying is the market the same as it was in 2020? Serious question. And then our friend rast we talked about before this out here white knighting for Steve Fezzik, saying of course it isn't, but do you give recognition or acknowledgement to people who won in 2024, or will you to people who win in 2025 and 2026, or are you just here to pile on someone when they are getting killed? Which is a weird thing to say? But Rufus responded I don't have a great idea of who's winning or who is it. I don't pay enough attention. But promoting short-term hot streets, as Fez often does, then saying but look at my long-term results when he's having a losing year, is peak tout behavior. I mean all you guys want to chime in here. I know that based on the sheet that we have here. Chris, though I'll let you lead on this one. 

31:55 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, I think Ras's point about do you credit people that have won in the past is fair, and we talked on the other show that I'd rather back a winner that has proven they've won in different sports than a winner in the originator and new sports, so that has some validity there. I wanted them to originate a new sport, so that has some validity there. However, it's also true that originators fizzle out and lose their edge over time. Can they regain it? Certainly, but the market has changed and honestly I do not think Fez is even close to what he was 15, 20 years ago. You know Peanut likes to joke that he's a sharp guy that wins, but I don't think that's true anymore and I think the results have kind of reflected that. I don't think he's going to have a big football year, unless he just sends out plays that aren't available. 

32:53 - Jacob Gramanga (Host)
Yeah, exactly. 

32:54 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, fair enough. 

32:57 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
This is the problem with talking about units. One first of all. In general, I would much prefer to see an roi than a unit number. But forget that. The truth is what's a unit? You know what if on some play you can get 12 dollars and on sorry, here's how it really works the plays that are really good, really high roi, you can get 15 dollars on, and the plays that aren't very good, you can get a much larger figure. 

33:20
So you're always gonna have, like these very skewed stats talking about units, when the unit, when the tout, knows that not all the units are the same size is just. You know, a tout's best friend is segmentation. You just like box things, make them fit. You know, whatever the narrative, whatever story you want to say and you know a lot of this is just tout lingo like now we're gonna start, yeah, now we're gonna start crushing guys. You know, rally the troops. And you know long story, short markets change, people change, but writing units is just kind of, in my opinion, scam, scammy behavior. Same with win rate. If it's not clear to a beginner, my win rate is 56% but I bet at minus 115. All these things really are irrelevant. That's why, knowing the ROI or I guess the EV of a play is much more important. But the truth is I'm still going to stick by this. 

34:16
Most clients that are buying services most not the pros that are buying it to maybe reverse engineer something good Most clients I don't believe they care about winning, it's about a community and then it's about breaking even. So when you hang out with your friends, you know you stay somewhat neutral, you don't lose too much, you don't really win, but it's just about having a good time. Most people they're literally either delusional themselves or they know. Most people actually I've run into this so many times People just want to have a good time, sweat a game and not look stupid. So this tout stuff just alleviates responsibility from people and touts have figured out how to write things a certain way to make people more comfortable in joining on the journey with them. 

35:04
And don't get me wrong, I still don't believe like a true casual has a better chance to to win than even fezik, even though I also don't think he's sharp. There's just no way a guy picking out of a hat is sharper in my opinion. But yeah, long story short. Another thing, by the way, maybe if I sometimes hear he's kind of like an aggregator getting other people's stuff. Well, maybe the touts he's falling have lost an edge and he's not as good as figuring out who's kept their edge. So there's like a million components to this. I just want the audience to understand that the way stuff is recorded is really important and showing things in this kind of mysterious like what's a unit you know some plays you could get 20. Some plays you can get a grand, and I promise you the plays you can get bigger on the edge is way smaller yeah, uh, I guess I want to throw this question over to you, kanish, uh, rufus kind of brought this up. 

35:51 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It is the market the same as it was in 2020? Just want to hear your thoughts on the market evolution and I guess I mean, listen, you've shared your thoughts on fesvick. You can. You can talk about it if you want to. But yeah, I just want to hear talk a little bit more, make this discussion about the uh market evolution and if you believe that that's a thing I mean. 

36:09 - Joey Knish (Host)
Well, first of all, I actually think he lost no joke on those first segment of fesv tweets, somewhat like. The latest update was like he was down 67 units for the year. So he actually could have bridged why he was using the 250 number three days ago, lost another 20 units. Now he's got to say well, I'm still up 200, baby, over the last five. I mean in terms of the market evolution, I thought Porter did kind of a nice job earlier in the podcast of highlighting it. 

36:45
It's just a lot of things have changed and even dating prior to 2020, if you want to go further, when, like RAS was really hot or like Fez maybe still had an edge in some of the things he he could piggyback off of the then downstream effect wouldn't have been as significant. Where, if Hitman releases a prop now, that prop five years ago or six years ago might have not moved as much, it might have not had as much liquidity on it, it might have not had as many people following it. Then the books might have not had the same software to be able to react to it in a prop market as fast, whereas now, five years later, you can't really, you know, send out the same play any, any type of play. That's actually good that people want to get in, that people know will get some clv or has people that win following it. Any sharp stuff that you're going to piggyback off 15 minutes later is going to be significantly worse, if not no longer a winning play where you're actually releasing a losing play. You know long term that the markets move so much on it it's not going to have that same, and maybe that's now part of the reason not that he's going to be introspective in that uh, why the current service is no longer winning. 

37:59
Could be short-term variance, could be a number of things, but the other thing that you know we allude on here is just the same old tactics of and I'll give you know the pizza man credit he kind of you know, laid into this on the show earlier this week. I expect to have a monster football season. Let's get back to winning now. Like, why, why? There's no like actual analysis here to say that there's, you know, it's just like hot take button. Like what I can fit in a tweet is you know, I'm back in the lab and it's time to win now. 

38:31
Like, okay, that doesn't fucking mean anything, it sounds good, I can make it sound. Good, I can cut a 10-second clip. That'll sound really good for people to like get fired up and be like that guy, like your normie. Your casual will be like oh yeah, like it's football season, he's ready to go, he's hyped up. I guarantee you the people that are doing the best you know in football, they're not going to be able to cut. They're like so you know, in in a lab somewhere actually putting together, you know, crunching data, that through like numerous ai models and all that stuff. Well, fez is out here taking hitman's leftovers. So get the fuck out of here. 

39:06 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Yeah, it's actually worse than that, because here's the scary part, right, technically if you've been winning all these units, you're trying to size up too right? So let's pretend let's pretend his units were real and you actually got the same amount down, but now you should be growing. You've actually lost more. 

39:22 - Flup (Host)
I'm gonna give him a little bit break because in reality you could probably only bet like 30 bucks on half of the stuff that's moved I feel like there's also not a fair argument too, because if you use that um, then his initial 201 would also be much bigger, because your bankroll would have been increasing, increasing, increasing. So if you say you would scale up at every, say, 50 units or every 100 units, then those first 200 are not really 200. He won probably closer to 300 or 400. 

39:49
Yeah, but you're losing more now, right? Whatever, even if you say that those 50 is halved, you're having a much bigger number. So it's not really fair to do that um to them it's still like not a great result, because you can't have it both ways, because you're trying to scale up and you can't advertise big like dollar amounts per unit if you aren't scaling up. So you can't have it both ways as a tout. But we can't criticize them for that without giving them the benefit as well, in my opinion. 

40:21 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that's a fair point there, chris, but again, I feel like I mean a lot of this stuff that I don't know. I don't want to say a lot of this stuff, but we have found, at times, some of the stuff that Fezzik has released. It's very tough to get $100, let alone. 

40:36 - Flup (Host)
I didn't disagree with that part of Porter. I think it's $30. 

40:39 - Joey Knish (Host)
Mr DeRogatis is very fair. 

40:42 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Very fair. 

40:43 - Joey Knish (Host)
You mean I can't get more than 100 at Punk Props at the South Point at three in the morning. 

40:48 - Flup (Host)
Surprisingly, you can't how mad. 

40:51 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Do you think Fezzik is now that South Point is available on everyone's odd screen? Vlad, do you think Fezzik is now that Southpoint is available on everyone's odd screen? Do you think that's going to chip away at some of his earnings there? 

40:58 - Joey Knish (Host)
It could very much hurt the three people that could still bet there in Vegas that are signing up to the service. 

41:03 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, that's about it for the Fezzik discussion. As always, we want to hear your thoughts on the conversation, so drop a comment in the comment section down below. Maybe you can get featured on next week's episode. And one thing I want to talk about before we get off the Steve Fezzik topic I just wish that Johnny from BetStamp was On the Twitter streets, because he would probably be going in at Fezzik Like he did shameless promotion Two years ago when Steve Fezzik Was on Circles Off the discussion that Johnny and Fezzik had. I think it was very eye opening and Johnny seems, as the days go on, it seems like Johnny was right about things more and more. For those who haven't seen the episode, I'll link it in the description down below. Give it a listen if you want to learn a little bit more about, I guess, steve Fezzik, what he does. If you're new to him, give it a listen. 

41:53 - Joey Knish (Host)
It was Johnny's best podcast performance by a mile on any circle-off episode. 

41:58 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I was actually just listening to it today. A little bit of schadenfreude. 

42:03 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Minus hours right. 

42:06 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah yeah, alright, let's move on to the next topic here. This one is a little bit interesting for me because personally, I bet on sports and I bet top down. Uh, not smart enough to originate not a very good better, but nevertheless. Uh, curious, here takes on top down benny. Uh, this comes from foes at, or foes, excuse me, at, fantasy foes f-o-e-s-s. Uh, if you're betting strictly top down, at what point does upping your units become negative? Ev, if you're able to get down 5k plus on something, you're probably on the wrong side. Chris, in our sheet you put yes and you put it in all caps. That makes me think you want to talk about this the most compared to everyone else. So I'll throw to you you can lead on this topic. 

42:49 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, this is an excellent question. This is the right way to be thinking about top down betting. I will critique the question a little bit because I think the 5K was an arbitrary number. It depends on what you're top-down betting. If I'm top-down betting NFL sides and I get something on Tuesday and I catch some steam on Tuesday, I'm not really worried about 5K. If it's some specific player props or some other markets, then maybe that number is. And this brings me to my main point is you should be picking something that you can get the majority of your. 

43:25
I can consistently get down 10k on top down per each side. That's fine to do that. It doesn't really matter. If I can consistently get it and I'm winning, increasing from 10k to 12k to 15k is fine. And you'll run into a problem when you notice that, like, say, you were comfortable with 50k but you can only get 10K on the stuff and then every couple bets you're able to get 50. 

44:02
Now we have massive adverse selection and a horrible, horrible problem because odds are those bets you're getting max filled on, you're getting crushed, you're on the wrong side of it on the wrong side of it. So if you can consistently get the same same amount down on everything. You should be generally good if you're doing it right and increasing that. You should just be wary that you can still get it across the board. If you can only get it on a couple of plays, that's when you got the alarm bells got away and it's no real dollar amount because people have different um setups. I probably can get down more than most other top down bettors. Others can probably get down more than me, so it depends on what, what's what your setup is and what you're betting but flop isn't. 

44:48 - Joey Knish (Host)
So I mean, I think some of it is too like a uh, I hate using, like the bankroll terminology, but if a book is moving an NFL side and your sharp books move three to two and a half, but you can still get your massive 5K, 10k, 20k fill on the plus three, it's still a plus EV bet. 

45:12
The question becomes if fantasy foes is normally betting 500, or let's say, getting 500 or $1,000 fills, but he can get $10,000 fills on the three, you know, to two and a half move, it's just the edge is significantly smaller where, if he hits a bad run of variance and loses, you know six, six, seven, eight NFL plays that were plus EV, that actually were plus EV plays. They were just smaller, you know, smaller in terms of being plus EV, but larger in terms of the amount you were able to get down. And now, over the course of six months or a season or a year, he might be looking at well, you know, now I'm down, I'm down 30K, I'm down 40K, even though all of my other stuff is winning. I guess it's more like do you think people should not be taking that amount of risk on bets that are significantly higher than the other amount of fills you can get that are much higher. 

46:17 - Flup (Host)
ROI. So this is a question of more flat betting versus Kelly staking. And earlier what I said, I'm going to reiterate this point. You got to bucket your bets and what I mean is, if you top down props, odds are you're going to get a lot more on top downing sides and major and major markets. So you might be comfortable with some certain unit size based on your bankroll for sides or Kelly staking on on on sides and that might be much bigger than the props. But that's okay because you're you're comfortable with it based on on your bankroll. 

46:56
Now, I wouldn't. It's like if you're flat betting and you have the ability the top-down props and top-down sides I think you're making a mistake here because you're probably killing your earn because, like you said, if it moves from 3 to 2.5 and you can get this and you can still get the plus three, that's a good bet. You should want to hit that and if you're rolled to bet bigger, you should be betting bigger. So I would recommend more of a Kelly staking and just be cognizant of your bankroll. I would be updating that as frequently as you can. 

47:32
Now that could be annoying and if you have a lot of plays out, it might be wishy-washy, but even if you're able to do it, like every 10 to 20% of your bankroll swings, that can be really, really helpful to ensure that you don't go on a massive downswing taking lesser edges, as you said. But if you have like, say you have a million dollar bankroll and you can get consistently $3,000 on props and ten thousand dollars down on three percent side edges, there's no reason why you shouldn't be not betting the full ten thousand. You're completely wrong for that, so you just got to be. I would strongly recommend using kelly staking and, if you're able to scale like this and not flat betting yeah, uh, porter, want to get your thoughts on this it's funny. 

48:16 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I totally interpreted this question either wrong or completely different. I think he was just trying to ask as, when you're able to get more downs, something seems fishy or something strange, and should he be worried if, consistently, there's certain bets where you get big fills and certain bets I assume the same market? By the way, I didn't think like props and sides, I think I thought he meant in general. So my comment to this was, effectively, when you're able to strangely get down more on a similar market, spidey sense should be tingling here and, like uh flip said earlier, you really need to be looking in, because a lot of people, they, they do this. 

48:57
It's almost like a joke. They're like oh, all my bigger bets lose and all my smaller bets win, and no, there's probably a reason why those bigger bets are bigger and then the smaller bets are winning. So you should probably sometimes look back at your own and, by the way, you should be recording your plays. You're recording your clv, basically data. You need data so that you can then go backwards. This is more for beginners, middle Later on it's a little bit different, but especially like when you're just starting out, record your data. It's not a fluke, usually when the big bets are losing and the small bets are winning. 

49:30 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, that makes perfect sense here. I'm curious to hear Fo's thoughts on what you guys just said here. Who interpreted the question right? Because, uh, we get two different interpretations. But here's the thing, here's the best part both great answers, uh, from the both of you guys. Uh, let's move on to the next topic before you what's up everyone? 

49:47 - Jacob Gramanga (Host)
jacob gromenia here from circle back. If you're watching and enjoying the show, if you've ever laughed, learned something or watched me lose my mind over the raptors offseason, hit the like button, subscribe to the channel and send this video to someone who bets. Seriously. It takes just five seconds and it helps us grow a lot more than you think. We don't have a marketing team, just me, a few hosts and a dream. So help us out. Click the button, support the grind and, yes, the knee brace is holding up fine. 

50:12 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Thanks for asking all got a couple more topics before we close out the show today. 

50:17
This one coming in. This is Adam Chernoff. He I mean some of you may know him from GRP's tracking. I'm sure there's other things that you've seen him on, but for those of you who have yet to listen to the details of the Friday update, this is from Adam Chernoff himself. My daily podcast and preview will be put on pause this season. My email newsletter has been activated again at adamchernoffcom for those wishing to follow in case of any updates during the NFL season. 

50:44
I will say I have listened to Chernoff's pre-game or pre pre-week NFL stuff and just the way that he analyzes and breakdowns. I like to listen to a lot of stuff when it comes to the NFL season. I just think he does a good job just talking about the NFL. I did enjoy his work. So I was a little sad to see the Daily Podcast is no more, but then, as I mentioned earlier, grp charms. In it says Adam Chernoff News. What is this that I'm hearing? Adam is done with making his picks public. Does anyone have any details? Uh, george, hopefully you're listening to this now and we're gonna update you with the details. But yeah, there's no, really no more details. He's not releasing a daily podcast anymore. I don't know if he's gonna be on decent still, but uh, yeah, uh, you guys have any thoughts on this quarter? I think you wrote down what, what, when? 

51:31 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I just want to double down this you think George really, really thinks that it's because of his recording, absolutely. 

51:39 - Joey Knish (Host)
Is it real? Is it real? That's real? I think George 100% thinks that yes. 

51:45 - Jason Cooper (Host)
As someone who has been lucky enough to meet George in person. Great guy, it's for sure. 

51:51 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
He knows it's him. 

51:51 - Jason Cooper (Host)
He doesn't think it's him, he knows it's him. 

51:54 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
That's very powerful stuff. Yeah, I, he knows it's him. He doesn't think it's him, he knows it's him. That's very powerful stuff. I think Chernoff and I have chirped a little bit in the past, even though he barely probably knows who I am. I'm just going to this is I jumped on this before in the past and this is a long time ago. 

52:12
He wrote like a 20-page essay about his career and he wrote it in a positive manner and I feel like in any serious industry, if someone wrote that they had 15 jobs over the course of six, seven years, at some point you need to like reflect inwards. Oh, and, by the way, a lot of these places failed sometimes. Maybe you got to reflect inwards on i'm'm not saying it was all him, but there was a joke that when he joined Raz I'll never forget, everyone's like wonder how long this job will last. And you know, I actually think a lot of some of Raz's problems were, you know they, their higher turnoff, I believe, for his audience and you know the that type of less professional audience kind of brought problems to Raz. Now, I'm not saying that's why they got rid of him, but I don't believe he was handicapping for us or doing much of that and look once again. Effectively he's jumped ship into something new. And this is just. You know, a lot of this has to do with story. Follow the story. Try to make the story make sense when you're, when you're listening to someone and uh, don't get me wrong, I've listened to his breakdowns before too. It sounds really good, but time and time again, again, I I'm I'm making an assumption here. 

53:25
Razz didn't hire him for handicapping. I could be wrong, but people in the audience listen to him. The material good, and yet the results are not the same. By the way, he has a history. I forget SBR Forum. I think it was where it was like some shady stuff, where he look, anyone that's in this industry this is survivorship bias will have a great year. 

53:48
There's not that many NFL players. You're not talking about thousands of players, you're talking about half a dozen a players. You're not talking about thousands of plays. You're talking about half a dozen a week. You're not talking about thousands of plays. So you will have seasons where you do great, you'll pick up followers, you'll get bigger, and then you'll have seasons where you do poorly and you'll shrink. 

54:02
But my God, this how is it possible to interpret that. Someone has had 10, 12 I don't know the real number but I know it's a large number over X amount of time in this space and still take this. Like you know he has a big name, like he's well-respected and he sounds really good. But you know there are other people that have the same kind of skill set. It just depends how you are as a communicator to your demographic. Vegas Dave, one of the biggest scammers, but he was excellent at communicating to a certain demographic to get followers and each person. You know there are people that climb to the top of the ladder. In my opinion, chernoff is one of those. He's very skilled for a certain demographic and how he speaks, but this stuff over the long run has not shown to be a winner. Anyway, forget all that stuff. A dozen jobs in like 10 years is not a yes, I'm Superman. That's just not the way you interpret that. 

54:58 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, fair enough. I mean I felt like some shots being thrown at me there because I said I was listening to Chernoff and you're like it's for a certain crowd, I mean all right? 

55:06 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
No, but I said, I said he sounds good, it does sound good. 

55:08 - Joey Knish (Host)
That confirms. All it does is confirm what Porter said. All right, Well, I mean. 

55:14 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'll allow those shots to be taken off of me. But yeah, I think I agree with what you're saying. I think the biggest thing for me is that sometimes you'll find some nuggets that are dropped off there that might be useful for you. Maybe they're not. They have been for me. But, kanish, any thoughts here? Are you ready to move on to the next? 

55:31 - Joey Knish (Host)
You know, the only thing I'll say is, again, he does a very nice job. You know Kurt broadcasting his stuff, kind of putting the production out there. I think I remember when it was discussed when he left RAS on the other show there was some issues about the way he didn't like how that was portrayed. And I think, you know, when you leave, you have a bigger public position like this, and then there's an exit and not really any update or discussion or it leads to people then making assumptions around. You know, why did it end at RAS? And then also, you know, with this I was like I'm putting things on pause. It's just not a lot of detail and I think that then leads people to go to some assumptions which maybe you don't like. 

56:27
I mean, we're talking about it here. We might be, you know, totally off base on why it's happening what it's happening. But when you don't actually put out, you know, a reason, or hey, this is what I'm doing, or this is the reason I'm doing, or this is why I left this company, um, it just leads to a lot of speculation. So, wish the guy well, but I guess I'm not. I'm not really sure what the plan is or what he's doing or what the what the thing is, so i't know. Maybe he'll answer that and we'll see More to come we just have to ask GRP, he knows. 

56:56
Mm-hmm, I was going to say I can't wait for the GRP tracking. Well, I don't know GRP. He'll have to do his own tracking this year once the GRP package is live. 

57:07 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I'm just curious who's next for him. I know he's the Kelly in Vegas, but maybe he has a couple other people in the pipeline. Let's move over to the next topic we have here, which is have it listed as a real gambling research? 

57:20
Isaac at Round Robin 42, who's made his rounds no pun intended on this show, has said he's incredibly excited to be working with Arnold Ventures and for those who don't know, arnold Ventures is a philanthropy company, excuse me, just trying to help out the American people. They're trying to build an evidence base on important questions that I have listed on your screen right now. This is through what he believes to be the largest non-industry funded gambling research grant today. These questions that they're trying to answer are what are financial, social and behavioral impacts of legalized sports betting in the individual or household level? How do different policies and state regulated frameworks influence consumer behaviors and outcomes? How does platform and product design influence betting behavior and outcomes? What are the broader public sector impacts of betting legalization and what are the effects of advertising and the normalization of sports betting? You guys all really wanted to talk about this topic. Joey, I'll let you lead with this one, since I left Flop. 

58:22 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, I'll let the smarter guys more cover this in a broad sense, because it's intuitive tech. Here's all I'll say about Isaac. I miss his great hair. I know he likes to do some different stuff, like this and the CNN thing. You know what I'd love for him to do? Pick more fucking tennis winners. I don't give a fuck about your philanthropy. Send me tennis winners so I can get down on them. I don't give a shit about what you're doing here. I'll let Porter and Fluff take whatever you know that he's doing here means, though. 

58:48 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I want to answer this one on the middle, on the middle ground I'm going to, and then Fluff can give like analytical, smart answers here. I'm just going to say thank God the politicians don't read this stuff, cause my guess is, if this is done correctly, I don't think a lot of positive things are going to be said about sports betting. So good for him that he's doing smart stuff like this, good for us that I, most politicians won't be reading this. Uh, I can't see how positive words are said from these five questions all right. 

59:26 - Flup (Host)
echo what porter just said. Of course, nothing positive is going to come from this, but I disagree with him. The politicians will be reading this, but they will be first reading the billions of dollars in tax revenue that they got and ignoring said things. So while I think this is good and it's great that Isaac's helping out industry I think he does a lot of good in a lot of things that he does like this, it's really, unfortunately, not going to matter, because sports betting brings in, as I said, billions in revenue and that's what moves politicians and that's what moves the industry. You need to be so negative for society like opioids, which we have a chance to do in sports betting. Maybe Isaacs finds that that's what's going to happen. But until it gets to that point, we're good. We're not going back to the pre-legalization days, they're not passing all these billions in revenue. 

01:00:18 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, I think those are all fair points here. It's good to see that we're getting some like actual research done, though, instead of like the fraud. I don't want to call it fraudulent research, but like the research that's backed by like these massive companies where anything that's negative that comes out about them, they'll just swipe under the rug. 

01:00:35
So, yeah, it's important to get that research, just long term, at least over the next 20, 50, 100 years. Just good to have that research. I want to hear your thoughts, though, in the comment section down below. Let us know if you think that this venture, that Isaac is on where he's trying to help out, if you think it's good for the industry, bad for the industry, if you think this stuff is important or you don't really care and you just want more tennis when it's like knish. Um, because, guess what, your comments are always red and sometimes next week we might bring them up on the show, like we're about to right now. And this one, this one, hits close to home for me. This first comment uh, this is coming from b gold grab. Uh, he says, or they say I've never eaten sushi in my life and I still know what sashimi is. You guys kanish flop. You guys gaslit me for a second there. But uh, thankfully I messaged in the group after the show saying hey, have you guys heard of what sashimi is? 

01:01:26 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
and porter responds yeah, of course oh yeah, he is so I mean I, I mean this, this. You know people laugh when you live in like a. I'm going to talk about some west coast and east coast elitism right here. 

01:01:39
Uh, thank god I pay 13 tax because to me it is absurd state tax, because to me it is crazy that you have never heard of what sashimi is as a, as a grown adult, like I could see. I mean, if you don't have an ocean, I guess next to you it's possible. No, it's not possible. It doesn't make sense, maybe for like a 12-year-old, but as an adult that seems really, really strange. As a matter of fact, I don't believe that I know anyone who doesn't know what it is. That's an adult. 

01:02:16 - Flup (Host)
Oh, my God god this is ridiculous and also I want to point out, peanut always calls me a coastal elite. That was the most in my life, okay. So please put the tension on Porter, not myself. I'm a Midwestern man. I'm a down-to-earth guy, salt-to-the-earth guy like Joey Kanish. We don't know what it is, we don't get the privilege of eating this fancy food, so it's some bullshit that I'm hearing right now. 

01:02:46 - Joey Knish (Host)
Let me tell you something. Let me tell you something you don't want to eat the sushi in Detroit. 

01:02:51 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I'll just put it that way how the fuck am I going? 

01:02:54 - Joey Knish (Host)
to eat the sushi. If you order sashimi at some of the places I go to around here, you'll be in the bathroom for three weeks. So yeah, I'm glad, though, that Jason who was so appalled we didn't know what it was found the one guy on Earth as passionate about sashimi as him and B Florida. I'm surprised you guys can spend the next 30 years, just you know, traveling around the country eating sashimi at every place on earth, since you both love it so much. 

01:03:19 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
You have to run a poll. You have to run a poll, right. 

01:03:23 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'll run a poll on Twitter after this, maybe from the Circles Off account. Maybe we'll attach this clip right here. I will say it's sad that the one man I want to eat sushi with is no longer with us. Rip, hulk Hogan. Chris, I won't put you on blast because you're saying you're a Midwestern man. You lived in New York for quite a long time. You can correct me if I'm wrong. 

01:03:41 - Flup (Host)
One year. One year, that's not quite a long time. 

01:03:44 - Jason Cooper (Host)
That's a decent amount of time. You not experiencing sashimi in one year? Man, that's tough scenes, but anytime you guys are how about this that bash Sashimi on me, sashimi on me. Okay, actually, I don't know how good the sashimi is in Las Vegas, but anyways, whatever, I'm sure we'll find good stuff. 

01:04:01 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
It's good, they have good places. 

01:04:03 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, I trust it. Let's get to our next comment here. We talked about Red Zone last show. This comes from BuckleUp8962. Espn buying the red zone will be a massive downgrade. They 200% will ruin it. Do you guys agree with this take? 

01:04:21 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean I just like I will agree, red zone's really good right now. My guess is they would buy it and hopefully not really change much. I just think it seemed like a program that kind of fits in with what ESPN does. But I mean I don't think they'll. I think this is one of those like ESPN hot takes where they you know some people hate ESPN. I think it'll be fine, they buy it. They won't change much. And if they do, I mean how the fuck hard is it you play highlights about people in the red zone? 

01:04:48
So, I think it'll be fine. 

01:04:50 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I assume, they're probably yeah, go ahead, sorry, I mean, I hardly watch football that's not on the red zone. Great to me it's, it's. But I watch all of red zone every every Sunday. Basically, hope they don't make a lot of changes. It's a pretty good product. Maybe they'll do a massive price increase. That could be a downgrade, but uh, I would not touch red zone too much. It's a pretty good product. 

01:05:14 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I will say the squarest, move on. If you love football is watching red zone, you just got to get more tvs. If you're watching red zone, simple solution, get more tvs. I I have to assume espn's buying it just to kind of slap espn bet on there and uh, it's just a massive, probably advertising thing for them. Chris, any thoughts on this? You ready to move on to the next question, or sorry, next question? Alright, next comment coming in from Nash2259 saying, I think the most, that I think most people lie to themselves on being winning bettors. They don't keep records of their bets but maybe hit a parlay or two and they think they're ahead because of it. I mean, I think this guy just nailed like 90% of almost 100% of square bettors and yeah. 

01:05:59 - Flup (Host)
There's nothing to add, because it's perfect. 

01:06:01 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's perfect. Yeah, alright, that takes us into the chopping block as we get ready to close out the show. First one on the chopping block is, I mean Kanish. I didn't know you were at the Dream Game. Storm on the Court. 

01:06:22 - Flup (Host)
I wish Nadeau was back. I would love to hear Nadeau's thoughts on this. 

01:06:27 - Joey Knish (Host)
I gotta tell you, if this was the Indiana Fever game, there would have been people checking my whereabouts. I'll just say that that. But thankfully it was a valkyrie dream, uh, because yeah, there there could have been some trouble here if it was, uh, if it was, you know, a sophie game yeah, I mean, I gotta contextualize for those who aren't, uh, watching on youtube or watching through spotify, which you can do now. 

01:06:50 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Um, yeah, what we're talking about right now is a dildo was thrown on the WNBA court at midnight Mitch tweeting. Dildos are on the WNBA court, all caps, we are. So back. Next slide here is from BetOnline. They released the market Color of next dildo on court during WNBA game Black minus 150, pink plus 200, purple plus 500, green plus 600, rainbow plus 800, any other plus 1,000. I will say there's no white or neutral skin tone there which could be presenting some good value in the any other. Any thoughts on this in general, guys? 

01:07:34 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Well, that's a different topic. That's the world culture, that there's no white brother I'm not just kidding, I'm kidding, I'm gonna get canceled for that. 

01:07:41 - Joey Knish (Host)
I'm kidding black minus 150 is way too steep, way way too steep. I mean the may, hypothetically, some of the girls I've known that have had like the black is you know now I agree with you, though, jc. If you can get any other rainbow, 800 though it's like no, that's the worst bet girls you've known. 

01:08:01 - Flup (Host)
Are you talking about your own supply? I mean, come on, I mean black, and like I, said no way I'm laying minus 150. 

01:08:11 - Joey Knish (Host)
I'm black, so no, no by. 

01:08:13 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
By the way, is this sexual assault Right? Someone threw a dojo on the court. 

01:08:19 - Jacob Gramanga (Host)
Like what's? 

01:08:20 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
this is weird. 

01:08:21 - Joey Knish (Host)
I don't know, their season tickets might be in jeopardy. 

01:08:26 - Flup (Host)
I want to give a shout out to Dave Mason for just like capitalizing on. He is so good at capitalizing in these moments. This is just perfect. I saw that and almost was like I want to bet on this. It's just so funny. Just for the memes they're $50 or whatever. Great job from Dave. 

01:08:45 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
Amazing. Think about how there's not a big betting market, but man, it's a hit. He's smart, smart guy. 

01:08:54 - Jason Cooper (Host)
It's good stuff there, of course, from uh, from dave, and I mean, hey, I thought this was gonna be. I wonder if this will ever be something like the. Uh, the florida panthers see, where they throw rats on the ice after a win. Maybe for the, for the dream, they'll start to throw green dildos on the ice. Who would have thought this is what I'm talking about? 

01:09:13 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
uh hey, bet's going the wrong way. You know, I'm not saying to do this, but you know stop the game there you go there, you go, all right uh, next 

01:09:21 - Jason Cooper (Host)
the next topic here. Uh, a little bit more. It's not even that serious, but a little bit more serious. Here, uh, steak friend on twitter saying am I on drugs or is this the worst bet ever? The bet he's mentioning is from Caesar Sportsbook's official account. They tweeted out a better in Nevada placed a $26,000 bet on a player to record a Grand Slam at minus 130 in any of the 16 MLB games tonight. Potential payout $46,000. I mean, I don't know what you have to do to me to lay minus 130 on a guy hitting a grand slam in an MLB slate. I have to think it happens less than 50% of the time, just being generous. So on that thought alone, I would not bet this. But I think the funniest thing about this story is that I mean, for those who don't know and didn't see this tweet stake a friend follows up a grand slam got it 16 minutes after I posted this. I mean, the comedy just writes itself here. Uh, who would have thought about that? 

01:10:29 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
uh, porter, go ahead, I want to. I want to talk about this because, like a month ago, someone dm'd me this question and asked me if this is a good price and I was. It's crazy that like this came up I I believe it's got to be a square account that could bet that much money. This is wild. If it's actually the guy who messaged me and it's, this is like a better story than it seems, because there's a guy I know who's way into this bet and I didn't want to do any work, but I just quickly typed it into chat gbt and it was like 16 games. I tried to factor like a little bit of weather. There's like one minute of handicapping, like not even real handicapping, and chat gbt came out with about this price, by the way, and the guy was really into it. 

01:11:09
So this is so strange that I'm seeing this on the show and I thought there's no way this makes any sense, because I answered what you said right away. I'm like this got to be plus money and then it just went through like historical data. Now I don't know what chat gpt might have been pulling, some worthless years. You know, I'm not exactly sure I wasn't going to put a lot of work in, but it's wild that I'm seeing this right now, because I wonder if it's the guy who messaged me. 

01:11:31 - Jason Cooper (Host)
I'm sorry. I understand you used chat, but either I have to push back. There is no possible way that anything greater than plus money on this is in any way. No, no. 

01:11:38 - Flup (Host)
Jason, I got to back up Porter here. I'm just looking it up. There's about 125 Grand Slams a year and there's a hundred games and if you're getting all 16, that's all all. That's all games. For the mlb it honestly seems like a cheap. This might be valid. Like what the heck? This is close enough where, like, I'm not taking, I'm not booking this bet or betting this bet like like this. I would need more research before this is not a bad bet by any stretch, like my first take. 

01:12:12 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
I agreed with you, Jason, by the way, I agree. 

01:12:15 - Joey Knish (Host)
Same thing. I was like it's got to be terrible. I saw it on Twitter. Even organically, it was just like, oh, that guy's got to be right. This is terrible. 

01:12:22 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Hey, it turns out we're wrong. Turns out I'm wrong. Nothing else is new. Grass is green, Sky is blue. I mean, I was honestly shocked when you said that was 126 grand slams in an MLB season. That just doesn't seem right to me, but hey that's what it is. 

01:12:35 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
There's three game slates. There's three game slates. 

01:12:38 - Flup (Host)
Very true, right, and this is the biggest game slate that you're going to get. So there's a lot more nuance that's going to go into this. Like weather is a great thing, you have to factor all right, interesting enough. 

01:12:57 - Jason Cooper (Host)
That's why me and joy care up here with the squares. Then you guys are down there. I'll put the two sharps. Let's get into the uh next, uh, next part of the chopping block here. This one's coming from uh at blang blang, bat blang blng on twitter, bling, bling. Can't say what the last part is, but this is Tommy G. This is like him impersonating Tommy G. I'm not used to playing in poker games where people aren't soft playing me. Tommy G played in the Omar Show XSV website X Club GG free roll game. I don't know what that is and was one of the first people out. Tommy G is a terrible poker player. He is terrible at everything else. He does Flop. You wanted to lead with this one. 

01:13:40 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, I disagree with the last part. He's definitely good at marketing. Obviously, anyone that can have that success and that amount of subs is quite good. But yes, he's awful at poker. There's just no denying that. I played with him. I saw his hand histories. In my opinion he was a top five to six whale that I've played with in my career. Awful. I mean calling way too many hands, porter you might know. I mean he was VPIPing 90%. I know you played poker. When you're VPIPing 90% on five or six handed, you're just bad. There's no way to justify this PFR. Really way too low, calls too much, not aggressive. Everything he does was bad. It's a joke that people think. And the only reason he thought that is because people were trying to be nice to him so he would play with them more. That was the funniest part and inflated the ego. Because there's the old saying in poker is don't tap the tank, don't, don't tell the fish that they're bad. I'm not playing with them anymore, I don't care anymore. He's awful. There's no way. 

01:14:40 - Mr. Peanut Bettor (Host)
No way to sugarcoat yeah, I mean, again, it's. It's crazy. It's weird because I'm fairly sure that he believes that he's good too. But you know that maybe is where the confidence comes to be so good at marketing you, this is like a new era and way for me where I used to just kind of dismiss these people. But really this has been a spot where I've learned the most over the last year, where I've come to accept that you can be not good at X, y, z, but have a certain skill that carries over and is attractive to a lot of people over and is attractive to a lot of people. And this is kind of introspective of something for me personally where I've grown the most this year in trying to understand other people's desires, which I think is really important in this industry. 

01:15:22
So you know, first thing Flop said about the marketing just something to think about. It's more impactful in life than you know. Someone can be just really bad at a bunch of stuff and there's something valuable out of them. I know that was not the intention of this tweet. We were supposed to go a different angle, but for me personally, this kind of hits home, where I was very unaccepting of this type of skill and thought process before. So I know I went a little bit the wrong direction on this one, but I just wanted to point it out because it kind of hit home. 

01:15:59 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, no, fair enough. And uh, yeah, let's close up the show with our last topic here. Uh, I believe porter flop is this. Is this your quant that you were talking about with your mlb? Hey, happy for grain slams. This one comes from isaac. He writes claude, please create a tennis model that properly accounts for surf quality, court speed, weather, fatigue, momentum, matchups and regress to market, but only when sharps are moving the lines, not whales. And he posted a picture I don't know if this is Jack GPT or not A very like a jacked human being on his computer typing this stuff out. I guess this is supposed to be him, or maybe this is the model itself, flav. But I guess this is supposed to be him. Or maybe this is the model itself, flop. You want to chime in on this? 

01:16:35 - Flup (Host)
I think it's really good tweak because it's really funny and attacks a lot of things. It's like when you're building a model and originating you could take. You can start with some base things, but there's always things that you can improve on. 

01:16:49
He listed everything, basically, that you can improve on in a tennis model and you can win ignoring some things and attacking earlier in the market, et cetera, et cetera. But there's always ways to improve the market, or your own model, rather and there's always things you need to be cognizant of and probably something that you're forgetting. So it really hits home if you've ever tried modeling or you want to model. Really good tweet overall. 

01:17:15 - Jason Cooper (Host)
Yeah, all right, fair enough. 

01:17:15 - Joey Knish (Host)
Any other thoughts from the crew back there knish porter uh, he, isaac, should work on it more work on what I think his tennis model okay, all right. 

01:17:28 - Jason Cooper (Host)
All right, maybe a little bit of a full circle moment there on circle back, but that wraps up the show for today, guys, again, thank you so much for tuning in. If you enjoyed the show, do us a favor, hit that like button. It goes a long way for us in the algorithm. And if you're new to the channel, hit that subscribe button as well, so you can see all of our content coming out on this channel. When it comes out, we will be back, not this Tuesday, but this upcoming Friday I believe it's the 8th with myself, with Fluff, with Kanish and a special third guest. Thank you, guys, so much for tuning in. We hope to see you then.