00:16 - Porter (Host)
coming up on your latest edition of.
00:19 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
Circle Back To me. There's just no fucking chance this is happening.
00:22 - Flup (Host)
He doesn't understand that betting center is 750, which is above Fando's limit. That's another tell that he is losing better, because that would mean his account is above 100%, which Fando only does to who they perceive to be losing better.
00:38 - Porter (Host)
Yeah, I actually want to say something totally crazy here. I hope people don't follow this to a T and then literally go broke.
00:44 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
Disclaimer the content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the host and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business, and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers and listeners are advised to form their own opinions. It's circle back here on the circles off channel. It's part of the hammer betting network and presented by cal she. This is the show where we uncover the latest and greatest stories from gambling twitter, and we've got quite a show lined up for you today. The big theme of the show where we uncover the latest and greatest stories from gambling Twitter, and we've got quite a show lined up for you today. The big theme of the show is pick sellers and the worst of the pick sellers, and it's just a reminder. There are people out there actively buying picks off these people and maybe you're one of them and probably you shouldn't be, and we've got the main crew of the three of us, myself, jacob Germania, your host here at Circle Back and lead producer at the Hammer. We've got bottom left corner of the screen, chris Dierkis, flup no Lied, and we also have in the bottom right Joey Knish.
02:16
We have also joining us today at our fourth pro sports. Better amateur when it comes to operating a camera. We spent about 20 minutes trying to figure out the camera. It hasn't worked. We'll soldier on with just the audio. But we have Porter at MLBK's Sidekick. Ceo of B Analytics. How are you doing? Thank you so much for joining us here today.
02:36 - Porter (Host)
Thank you guys for having me on. It's a shame I couldn't figure out the camera, but it's a sports betting show. We'll survive.
02:41 - Flup (Host)
I think this is just a convenient excuse to be an anonymous troll on Twitter. I can never trust those people. I can't see him, so he's not trustworthy.
02:48 - Joey Knish (Host)
Have you seen Porter and man of the Vague in the same room ever?
02:51 - Flup (Host)
I don't know.
02:52 - Joey Knish (Host)
No.
02:54 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
Nah, I'm a real guy there was a little bit of a worry that Fluff wouldn't be able to record today. He was playing at the main event, World Series of Poker. How did that go for you, Flop? You're here, so I mean.
03:06 - Flup (Host)
Did not go well, did not even make it one day. I think the post on Twitter jinxed me. I was out within two hours. Not ideal, not a fun ROI.
03:18 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
I didn't know about this until recently, but had I been aware you were playing, I still would not have been concerned over your ability to appear on the show today.
03:26
I appreciate that Doing so from a hotel, but we're going to start off with what we think is a good tweet from Ongo Gablogian at Armenian Better At Armenian Better, very well known in gambling, says your ability to pay a figure on time without excuses alone can catapult you to the upper echelon of the gambling world. There are many people who don't model and don't even have a crazy high value prop that do very well in this business simply because their word and their money is golden. So, like I said, this show today is going to be about the worst of the worst when it comes to pig sellers, but it's just a showcase from armenian better here that the gambling space is so bad that the bar is very low and it's very easy to stay above that bar. Uh, porter, you, you definitely wanted to talk about this. We'll lead off with you as a guest. What did you think of this tweet here?
04:21 - Porter (Host)
so, yeah, I I actually originally commented on this post. It's extremely fortunate for most people in this industry that serious professional type people aren't really for the most part in this industry Because, in all honesty, this is truly the lowest common denominator and the fact and it's accurate the fact that this puts you a step ahead of everyone else and you're known as just an honest, legit, the money's good person. It's incredible that that already puts you ahead of who knows 90 plus percent of this industry.
04:55 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yes, well, I mean, I counted on the same type of principle and kind of when I was first starting to get serious like that. That's probably how the reputation it wasn't because I was a fucking genius or had some great thing, it was like people knew there's a solid reputation, we get paid out every week and was handling it like I was kind of running like my own small business um, I know it's both you guys kind of do and it's like that, as you said, gives you such a leg up over most people that in so many people in this industry, even people that would like consider themselves professionals, they're either over leveraged, have too much risk appetite, whether they had a campaign, or they're just straight up broke, or they're just doing it on, you know, on credit and that. So, yeah, it's a, I thought, great way to summarize that from on go. And you know what I'm jealous that I didn't tweet that out myself, to be honest.
05:45 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
You've got enough bangers, Ganesh. Nobody else can have one.
05:49 - Porter (Host)
Yeah, I really think that it's truly just a wildly disproportionate amount of people in this industry. They're just broke, so it makes sense that this is happening. Those other points you made are spot on too, but really I just think people are broke Effectively. They have some kind of degen in them where they're dumping the money. It doesn't matter if someone's making money for them. Long story short, I really think it boils down to people don't know how many people who seem to be successful in this industry are just not. It's that simple.
06:21 - Flup (Host)
Yeah, I agree completely. And one thing I'd just like to add you guys hit a lot of these points well is, I think being proactive in terms of settling is very good. I always try to, when I have a new partner, reach out immediately after the bet settles. Hey, I can send this now. If you want to roll, let me know. That takes the onus off of them of feeling that they have to come after me for the money and it really helps smooth things over. And I slightly disagree with you, porter, there.
06:47
I don't think for a lot of people it's necessarily that they're broke, it's more, maybe, that they're disorganized. And I think if you're organized enough, then you'll have all the tabs. Like I know how much I owe everyone, I have a spreadsheet up, all the all tabs, what's owed to me, et cetera, et cetera. It makes life really easy. So I can just look and figure it, figure that out. Other people maybe, if they're doing it by hand or if they have a notepad, it might not be as easy to to to settle and know what's what's up there.
07:25 - Porter (Host)
Bookkeeping is probably nearly non-existent in this industry for most, which ties into like they're not really professional. A lot of people think this is just place you know, click a button, place a bet, when really there's a million other components not a million, but you know what I mean lots of other components to this business to being successful I'd love to know if any of you have like a horror story working with somebody that you want to share.
07:40 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
You maybe not necessarily you don't have to name names if you don't want to but is there any horror story of what not to do that you can share with us?
07:48 - Porter (Host)
I mean the number one thing is just people, you, you. It's funny, it's almost like a cut and paste out of chat GPT. Someone will say, don't worry, I'm not going anywhere, I'm going to pay you. And then you get that same message with, like a twist, a comma somewhere else. And they just say that same message again and again, and again, when in reality, like you just kind of know it's like I've seen this message 48 times I know what's going to happen. So the way I work because I have a lot of partners, so like this happens more often, it's people are unbelievable, it's. It's just not enough to win for people. That's, that's all I can say. You have to handhold them the whole.
08:25 - Joey Knish (Host)
If someone has a cooked up excuse of like hey, oh, you know what I was, I'm taking my. You know, get to the movies on Monday, I'll go let me get you back Thursday.
08:33
That's usually a bad sign. Tell you what, when I'm retiring, uh, remind me, because there, uh, I'll have a great. I can't tell this now, but there's a guy who's not a huge fan of the show who's named after a type of steak. Well, I got, I got an all time story, that that I get to keep in the chamber. So, yeah, we'll, I'll save that one for some point.
08:58 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
Maybe one day you got to be subscribed so you find out when he does reveal. What about you? What about you Flop?
09:04 - Flup (Host)
I actually do not have any crazy stories about getting stiffed or anything like that. Are you sure?
09:10 - Joey Knish (Host)
Because I think there was like a lunatic mob on gambling Twitter that stiffed you like a month ago.
09:17 - Flup (Host)
I didn't get stiffed in that game. That was for man of the Vegan Blue blueberry and I feel bad for them, but for myself, no, I I mean the only time. It's like a bookie, but like I don't really consider that I was going into it knowing that I was there was a high chance of getting stiff there, so I don't really consider that. The only thing that's crazy for me is like I've had my. I've misclicked a bet place before. A trader myself has misclicked a bet before and you know we have to pay out and that kind of sucks.
09:43 - Porter (Host)
But um other than that, nothing crazy let me tell you, when I retire, I am going to ruin people, people. It is going to be a bloodbath. When I'm like, officially done with this, it is going to be wild. I actually keep a notepad with like all the stories one it's going to. I don't know who's going to read it, but a few people are going to listen. It's going to be a bloodbath for people. Insane stuff Literally throw up stories how disgusting some people are.
10:15 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
As you may have been able to tell, we have Porter on a different mic and camera at the moment. Now he's very trustworthy with his money and with betting, but not so much with camera and mic. So we have him on his phone now, but that means we do get to see him. Hopefully he still sounds okay for you guys. That was the change. All right, getting to our second topic now. If you're enjoying so far, make sure you do hit the like button. Also, subscribe to the channel for shows like this every Tuesday and Friday morning, 8 am Eastern time.
10:42
But we're going to pull up some interesting markets here. The first one, coming from Kalshi, is will the UFC host a fight at the White House by the US's 250th anniversary? So the 250th anniversary will be July 4th 4th of July in 2026. And to celebrate, donald Trump wants to hold a UFC event on White House ground. So how this will grade, if that event occurs before July 5th 2026, it will pay out as yes and according to the Cal Shee forecast here, there's a 63% chance of that happening. Let's go to you, kanisha, first of all here. We've seen some claims from Donald Trump in the past. Is this one of the big ones that will come to fruition or will not come to fruition. What do you think?
11:27 - Joey Knish (Host)
I mean I'm not laying 63 percent on it because a lot of stuff comes out of the White House that that doesn't necessarily make it to reality. With that said, he is I mean he is boys, boys with Dana White. My only thing would be from a security perspective, is this achievable? I don't know, that's like a Secret Service type thing, but I'm sure they'll. I don't know. I even say, would I give it a go At 63%, though I'm not a buy.
12:00 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
How about you, Philip?
12:01 - Flup (Host)
I just want to point out when I'm looking at these markets on CalSheet, you have to look at the liquidity. This 63% is a very fake number To myself. There was three dimes of liquidity, from 63% to 70%, all the way up to 90 cents or 90%. So this number is completely fake. If you actually have a real opinion here and you want to get $5,000, which isn't even that big of a bet for like a serious better you're going to have to post a way worse number. So for these niche markets you got to look at the liquidity and I don't know like. I kind of agree with Kanisha that 63 percent seems very high. But I don't really specialize in White House hosting events markets. That's not really my area of expertise.
12:50 - Porter (Host)
I mean you can actually see in the spikes how little that style of graph that's only over three days. You can see someone just bought and, you know, then sold, so you see a lot of like. You can see the liquidity is really low and, by the way, that's kind of a good way to bet for all people who aren't. Maybe originators kind of pay attention to liquidity in markets and usually if liquidity is low you're better off, you know, deciding a position there than when liquidity is really high, which means it's a little bit sharper of a line, exactly.
13:19 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, yeah exactly. I just wanted to pull this up. Sorry, Go ahead Flop, Go ahead Flop, you know.
13:25 - Flup (Host)
I just want to point out a lot of people get rooted in what the market thinks. There is no market here I mean, I down, like better, don't use that as like how you form opinions and not even this market in particular. There's a lot of other markets that have similar liquidity.
13:50 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
I just wanted to pull this market up because, regardless of the percentage, like to me, there's just no fucking chance this is happening. I mean, on top of the, the security aspect of it which Kanish talked about, does the logistics of this actually happening A UFC event on White House grounds, what are we even talking about? There's just no way this can happen. I'll never say zero, but there's no way. Come on.
14:14 - Flup (Host)
Maybe in communist Canada. You guys can't figure it out.
14:17 - Joey Knish (Host)
Yeah, yeah, we're in America.
14:22 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
Yeah, what would be the equivalent of Canada? Could we do a hockey game on parliament grounds in Ottawa? Like that would be a nightmare. I guess you know if it's going to happen. If anyone can make it happen, it's Donald Trump as president. But this is just an absolute nightmare. I don't know. I personally don't see it. A market with a lot more liquidity, which we have a much better idea of where things are at, is the pro baseball champion. So who will win the World Series? In the MLB? The favorites, big favorites right now are the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Detroit Tigers in second at 12% 20% for the Dodgers, 10% for Houston, 10% for the Yankees. Speaking of Canada, my Blue Jays, all the way up to 4% out of nowhere. A nice little 10-game win streak. I think it was Wanted to go to you, porter, you do work in the MLB. Just on the topic of the MLB. Just on the topic of the MLB. Yeah, so I want to say something.
15:20
Positions you like, or potentially just the way the season's going. What are your thoughts?
15:25 - Porter (Host)
Yeah, I actually want to say something totally crazy here. I hope people don't follow this to a T and then literally go broke. So I'm of the opinion with the APY you know high yield over here going on that you can take relatively larger positions on more likely events to occur. So we're talking about like if you scroll down you'll see like 3%, 2%, 4%. There's like some teams it had some jokers, marlins, there was some liquidity, I would say and I used to tell people futures don't really make sense if you're not beating a T-bill. But now you actually get to combine 1% or 2% here on the really safe plays. Now look, if you take enough 1% or 2% plays, you will eventually go broke because one will go wrong.
16:09
So I'm not saying to do this, but maybe people should be looking into pulling a little bit of their money out of high-yield saving accounts and taking long positions at 1%, 2%. Well, 98%, 97% spots. I know that's a recipe for maybe going broke, but you can manage it. It's not like overnight something can jump 10%, 12% in a market like this. So I used to really be against people betting futures.
16:32
It just kind of made no sense for me, to me a lot of people. That's all their liquidity. But now I'm thinking maybe people should start moving some of their high yield savings accounts to calci and taking positions on you know, short odds or long odds, because you could bet yes or no here and these are markets. I mean you need to target the right markets where you're not going to lose seven, eight percent overnight. There's no possible way that a two percent spot becomes a ten percent spot which, by the way, it doesn't mean you're going to lose. But then you know people hold and something goes really wrong. But I think this Kalshi is a real opportunity for a lot of people to get a couple, one, two, three percent on top of their you know high yield saving accounts.
17:12 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
I know Fozid is scrambling to go make some big, big bets right now.
17:18 - Joey Knish (Host)
When he listens to this, we're going to see about 30 Cal Street tickets on.
17:30 - Jacob Gramegna (Host)
You heard it here, fozen. Hey, you're making those bets. You say that yourself. They're minus EV. Well, start making them futures bets and maybe you have some plus EV positions. What do you think about using CalSheets, a savings account? Almost Flop.
17:44 - Flup (Host)
Well, I really like this a lot and this is a big reason why I made my Cavs bet on CalSheet, because I was calculating it out, with it being held up for over a month or two months, that extra interest I'm earning is actually a few cents better than other books. It pushed the price up for me almost seven or eight cents, so I'm getting a better price and now if you think about, like the mlb world series, this is going to settle in what four or five months from now, that's a huge boon. I mean, this could, this could be upwards of a 20 25 cent move and just by placing on the couch, even if the price isn't as good on paper, when you factor an interest, it will actually be better. So this is why Cal State has been one of my favorite places for futures, and I kind of disagree with the parking in 98, 97% thing, I think that's. I think what do you set people up to get to?
18:37 - Porter (Host)
just no, no, no. But listen, listen, that's not true. There are specific markets. The Marlins cannot move from one percent. I don't see the bottom but Marlins can't move from one percent to eight percent overnight. I understand that it's on people to manage their positions, but I just meant.
