Paycor Stadium, home of the Cincinnati Bengals - Source: Unsplash

 

Three Super Bowl Outsiders You Shouldn't Be Sleeping on as the 2026 NFL Season Heats Up

 

Seven weeks ago, the bookmakers had already crowned their champion. The Los Angeles Rams traded for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, coaxed Aaron Donald out of a two-year retirement on the eve of the season, and were duly installed as the overwhelming +500 favorite to win the Super Bowl next February, with nobody else shorter than +1000. 

Since then, the Rams have been flattened 27-7 by San Francisco in Melbourne, blown a 16-0 half-time lead in a 30-26 defeat in Denver, lost 37-34 in overtime to Buffalo, and fallen 18-16 at home to Arizona as 12.5-point favorites.

A rout of the Raiders in Week 7 has them at 3-4, yet the price has drifted to +1200. The money has since migrated to San Francisco at +600, who beat the Rams, Broncos, and Seahawks during a 6-0 start before Atlanta forced four turnovers in a 29-20 win in Week 7, and to Buffalo at +650, 5-1 out of their bye after edging the Rams in that Monday-night thriller.

Crowds follow names; form tends to reach the market a week or two late. Three teams further down the board have done more winning than talking, and each deserves a harder look than its price implies.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

At halftime in Baltimore in Week 7, Cincinnati looked like a team still on its bye week: 59 yards of offence, no points, a 13-0 deficit. Then Joe Burrow went 16 of 18 for 249 yards and four touchdowns, Tee Higgins finished with 148 yards, and the Bengals scored on all five second-half possessions in a 35-13 statement-making win that lifted them to 4-2. Al Golden's defense didn't concede a point after the interval.

That defense is the story. A unit that allowed 28.9 points a game in 2025, 30th in the league, was rebuilt around free agents Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen, and Bryan Cook before the front office sent the No. 10 pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence. So far, the return is 21 sacks, the most in the AFC. Adam Schefter tipped them for a big year back in June; Pete Prisco of CBS Sports now ranks them fifth.

The flaws are real, though. Back-to-back defeats to Pittsburgh (30-27) and Jacksonville (22-17) exposed a run game that managed 10 yards against the Jaguars, and only two teams had fewer rushing yards. Slow starts remain a habit. Tennessee, owners of the league's worst offence, are up next, before a trip to Madrid to face the Falcons. 

But it's December that will likely determine whether an AFC Championship run is realistic. The Bengals will face their divisional rival Cleveland Browns on December 6th, then host the heavyweight Kansas City Chiefs before back-to-back road games against the Panthers and the Colts. 

Online betting sites haven't yet posted their Bengals Vs Browns odds, but when they do, Cincy will likely be the favorites to win in enemy territory. If they do that, then they suddenly become genuine contenders, and their current odds of +1600 will probably be slashed dramatically. With Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Higgins firing on all cylinders, a maiden Lombardi Trophy isn't far-fetched.

 

Minnesota Vikings

 

With 68 seconds left in their Week 7 clash against Indianapolis, Harrison Smith stepped in front of Colts QB Daniel Jones, collected the 40th interception of his career, and sealed a 16-10 win over Indianapolis. Minnesota are 6-0 for the first time since 2009 and, after defeats for San Francisco and Kansas City, the only unbeaten team left.

Brian Flores is the reason. His watertight defense has allowed just 12.3 points a game, the fewest in the league, and against the Colts, it blitzed on 85.2% of Jones's drop backs, the highest single-game rate of the Next Gen Stats era. Wins over Green Bay, in Chicago, in Tampa, over Miami, and in New Orleans have all run on that engine. And this from a franchise that sent Jonathan Greenard to Philadelphia for two third-round picks and moved past J.J. McCarthy to sign Kyler Murray on a one-year, veteran-minimum deal.

How long can a defense carry an offence like this? The Vikings have 125 points, tied for the second-fewest by a 6-0 team since 1950, and just 10 touchdowns. Murray went 14 of 24 for 150 yards against the Colts, and the passing game is 29th in yards per game. Minnesota will find out the answer to that question firsthand with a grueling upcoming schedule, including trips to Detroit and Green Bay, a visit from the Bills, and finally, a mouthwatering clash against San Francisco in Mexico City. 

ESPN lists Minnesota among the suitors for Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts have already begun selling. This defense can win in January without more offence, but the NFC Championship looks like the ceiling. Add Taylor, and the Lombardi may well be within reach. 

 

Denver Broncos

 

Bo Nix had 37 rushing yards through six games. Then, late in the second quarter in Glendale, he stepped up and ran 62 yards for a touchdown, the longest scramble score of the Next Gen Stats era. A 52-yard screen to RJ Harvey followed in a 30-16 win that made Denver 5-2 and stretched their winning run to three.

It's the first comfortable win of a season of escapes. After a 31-10 opening loss in Kansas City, the Broncos edged Jacksonville, came from 16-0 down to beat the Rams, and outlasted Seattle 17-14 in overtime, when a defense missing Pat Surtain II sacked Sam Darnold five times and hit him 17 times. The only other defeat came in San Francisco.

Denver went 14-3 and took the AFC's top seed last season, lost the AFC Championship 10-7 to New England with Jarrett Stidham standing in for a broken-ankled Nix, then sent the No. 30 pick to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. But despite all the credentials, the offence hasn't followed the script. 

Can a team scoring barely 20 points a game really be a Super Bowl pick by October? ESPN's FPI gives Denver an 81.9% playoff chance, and an AFC title is realistic. A Super Bowl depends on Nix finding his Week 7 level every week.